MCDA Final Report Malawi - Standards and Trade Development ...

net flow in most analysis has a negative net flow under the cost/difficult of implementation and trade
impact analysis.
Figure 31. Net flows for cost/difficulty of implementation and trade impact model
Examination of the sensitivity of the prioritisation to changes in measures of the decision criteria is more
complex, in that 160 individual measures (10 decision criteria x 16 capacity-building options) enter the
analysis and conceivably changes in any one might influence the results. Thus, focus was placed on
measures for which there was a low level of confidence and that were considered to be of potential
importance to the analysis. In particular two alternative scenarios were run, and are outlined below.
There is considerable uncertainty over the impact of investments in aflatoxin controls for maize on the
value of exports. The baseline assessment assumes that the impact on the value of exports is zero.
Most trade in maize is through the World Food Programme (WFP) and is tested. If there is a problem
with aflatoxins in maize, it is evidently not of a magnitude to impede trade. An alternative plausible
assumption, however, is that in seasons with high rainfall, levels of aflatoxins will be greater and exceed
the tolerance of export markets and/or buyers. In such cases, a large proportion of exports could be
lost. To capture this eventuality, an alternative scenario that investment in aflatoxin controls for maize
would prevent losses of up to a half of exports (US$11 million in 2017) is estimated. This has a
significant impact on the placement of the option in the overall ranking, which moves from 15 th in the
baseline model to fifth (Figure 32). Evidently, this is an area where further research and reflection is
required.
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