MCDA Final Report Malawi - Standards and Trade Development ...

Figure 32. Net flows for baseline model with adjusted trade impact of aflatoxin controls for maize
Feedback on the baseline model from dairy processing sector questioned the presumed impact on trade
should investments not be made in upgrading hygiene controls in the sector. The baseline model
assumed that growth in exports would be facilitated by the enhancement of hygiene controls, estimated
at US$2 million annually by 2017 (Table A3.12). An alternative and more pessimistic scenario is that
dairy product exports would be curtailed in their entirety should hygiene controls not be upgraded,
reflecting the trends towards HACCP-based controls in diary processing within COMESA and SADC. The
presumed trade impact in this alternative scenario is US$17.2 million of trade loss averted in 2017. The
results are presented in Figure 33. Under this new scenario, compliance with hygiene requirements for
milk exports is ranked fifth, compared to ninth in the baseline model. This suggests that the
prioritisation of this option is sensitive to the estimated trade effect, and that this is in need of further
research in order to ascertain which of these two scenarios (or some other) is most plausible.
6. Conclusions
This report has presented the initial results of a priority-setting exercise for SPS capacity-building in
Malawi. The priorities are defined using a new prioritisation framework based on MCDA, which provides
a structured and transparent approach to ranking capacity-building options on the basis of predefined
and agreed and weighted decision criteria. Thus, the options to be considered are identified through a
process of stakeholder consultation that is informed by a review of prior assessments of SPS capacity. In
this case, 16 distinct SPS capacity-building options were identified. These options are then prioritised on
the basis of a series of 10 decision criteria which weights are applied, that are again derived by
consulting stakeholders. These criteria cover the costs and difficulty of implementing the capacitybuilding
options and the pay-off from these investments in terms of impacts on trade, local spill-overs
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