MCDA Final Report Malawi - Standards and Trade Development ...

Table A3.2. Aflatoxin controls for groundnuts
Decision Criterion Value Details Confidence
Cost
Up-front investment
US$600,000
Estimated cost of scoping study for 4 mycotoxins in diet, land race typing
of Aspergillus flavus to geographical indicators, and three year field trial Medium
with multiple strain atoxigenic strain Aspergillus flavus.
On-going cost 0.1%
Limited additional production costs estimated conservatively at 0.1 per
cent of the value of exports.
Medium
Ease of implementation +4
Somewhat difficult. Larger smallholder farmers involved and
fragmented value chain. Difficult to get smallholders to implement GAPs
given that they mostly decide the crops they grow in any season on the
High
basis of price.
Trade impacts
Change in absolute value of exports
US$10.8
million
Exports in 2011 were 21,000 tonnes. Limited additional exports could be
achieved as a result of the implementation of aflatoxin controls that are
over and above growth in exports that would be achieved anyway.
These are estimated conservatively at 40,000 tonnes per annum.
Assuming no appreciable changes in prices over time these exports are
valued at the unit price in 2011 (US$0.27 per kilogram).
Medium
Trade diversification +1 Enhanced exports to the EU will be facilitated. High
Agricultural/fisheries productivity +1
Domestic public health 0
Domestic agri-food impacts
The implementation of GAP and enhanced returns will stimulate more
commercial production.
No impact. Groundnuts are heavily consumed in Malawi especially by
poor households. Smallholders are likely to sell aflatoxin-free nuts to
exporters and to consume the infected ones themselves and/or sell
them on local markets. At the same time, a more effective aflatoxin
control and management system could reduce overall levels of aflatoxins
in the crop.
High
Medium
Environmental protection -1 Expansion in production could cause reduction in biodiversity High
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