nymtc regional freight plan - New York Metropolitan Transportation ...

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A Freight Plan for the NYMTC Region 2.0 Freight Transportation in the NYMTC Region Today and in the Future The purpose of this section of the NYMTC Regional Freight Plan is to provide background on freight trends and freight system characteristics, to discuss specific challenges and issues arising from these trends, and to identify specific ways in which these challenges manifest themselves in the regional freight system. • 2.1 Existing and Forecast Conditions 2.1.1 Volume of Freight Forecast economic growth in the 10-county NYMTC region is expected to significantly increase the volume of freight moved in the region. The region already experiences the highest volume of freight movement of any metropolitan area in the nation. Existing and forecast conditions are described in terms of overall volume, how freight is moved, the commodities that are moved, and origins and destinations. Regional commodity flows are expected to grow from 333 million annual tons in 1998 to 490.5 million annual tons in 2025, a 47 percent increase. This trend is shown by county in Figure 2.1. Nationally, it is anticipated that the volume of freight movement will increase by 68 percent between 1998 and 2020, as shown in Figure 2.2. Thus, the growth of freight movement in the region is forecast to be slightly lower than in the nation as a whole. However, more recent data produced by the Cross Harbor Freight Movement EIS shows that the rate of increase is now forecast to be higher than the national average. In either event, this rate of growth is significant and surpasses most other indicators of regional economic growth such as population and employment. Cambridge Systematics, Inc. 2-1
A Freight Plan for the NYMTC Region Figure 2.1 Freight Growth in the NYMTC Region Base and Forecasted Flows by County Annual Tons (in Millions) 250 200 1998 Data 2025 Forecast 150 100 50 0 Kings New York Suffolk Westchester Queens Nassau Bronx Rockland Richmond Putnam Counties Source: Reebie Associates 1998 TRANSEARCH database for the NYMTC region, purchased for the Regional Freight Plan Project, forecast to 2025 by DRI-WEFA, Inc. Figure 2.2 National Freight Growth Forecast Tons (in Millions) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1998 2010 2020 Source: FHWA, Freight Analysis Framework. Cambridge Systematics, Inc. 2-2
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