ey-global-tax-policy-outlook-for-2015

in the formation of tax policy in 2015.
The benchmark US crude oil price at the
end of 2014 was at a six-year low.
few nal thoughts
Looking ahead, what are the macro
trends (other than the BEPS Project)
in 2015 Economic growth prospects
will always be on the mind of those
that control the levers of policy and the
outlook for global growth in 2015 is
not easy to decipher. The most recent
forecast 7 from the IMF (January 2015)
centers on the fact that, even with the
sharp oil price decline — a net positive
for global growth — the world economic
outlook is still subdued, weighed down by
underlying weakness elsewhere.
In advanced economies, the legacies of
the pre-crisis boom and the subsequent
crisis, including high private and public
debt, still cast a shadow on the recovery.
In the United States, however, growth
rates were revised up to 5% in the most
recent data, reinforcing the likelihood
that the US Federal Reserve, which
is already winding down quantitative
easing, may start raising interest rates
in 2015. Emerging markets, meanwhile,
are adjusting to rates of economic
growth lower than those reached in
the pre-crisis boom and the post-crisis
recovery is becoming more country-
of economic data in key markets should
be at the top of the list for tax directors
in 2015.
in the formation of tax policy in 2015.
The benchmark US crude oil price at the
end of 2014 was at a six-year low. The
price has fallen dramatically since the
summer of 2014 and is now less than
half its June price. In countries with a
large extractives sector, sustained low
prices below $50 per barrel may prompt
tax actions. In some markets these
actions may be stimulatory, whereas
in others they may aimed at replacing
lost revenue. Such is the double-edged
nature of tax policy.
Currencies also tell an important story
of economic health and should be
monitored in 2015. Consider the value
of the US dollar, which has been rising
sharply against most other nations’
currencies since summer 2014, the
same span over which prices and
worldwide. The dollar’s rise has been
steepest against currencies in places
where the domestic economic outlook
is the worst, particularly Europe, but
also Brazil. In this regard, the possibility
of currency controls and other related
taxes should be taken into account as a
possibility for 2015.
Notwithstanding the above data points,
our country respondents report that
by and large unlikely to occur in 2015.
stimulus has either been announced or is
expected in 2015.
New trends can develop
at any point in the year.
Tax can be likened to
fashion, in that trends
are quickly replicated
among nations. Today,
key organizations and
countries setting those
trends. Being vigilant
to their words and
actions will continue
to be important in the
year ahead.
7
The outlook for global tax policy in 2015 |
11