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Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
this: Never try to sell at the top. It isn't wise. Sell after a reaction if there is no rally.
I cleared about three million dollars in 1916 by being bullish as long as the bull market
lasted and then by being bearish when the bear market started. As I said before, a man
does not have to marry one side of the market till death do them part.
That winter I went South, to Palm Beach, as I usually do for a vacation, because I am
very fond of saltwater fishing.
I was short of stocks and wheat, and both lines showed me a handsome profit. There
wasn't anything to annoy me and I was having a good time. Of course unless I go to
Europe I cannot really be out of touch with the stock or commodities markets. For
instance, in the Adirondacks I have a direct wire from my broker's office to my house.
In Palm Beach I used to go to my broker's branch office regularly. I noticed that cotton,
in which I had no interest, was strong and rising. About that time this was in 1917 -I
heard a great deal about the efforts that President Wilson was making to bring about
peace. The reports came from Washington, both in the shape of press dispatches and
private advices to friends in Palm Beach. That is the reason why one day I got the notion
that the course of the various markets reflected confidence in Mr. Wilson's success. With
peace supposedly close at hand, stocks and wheat ought to go down and cotton up. I was
all set as far as stocks and wheat went, but I had not done anything in cotton in some
time.
At 2:20 that afternoon I did not own a single bale, but at 2:25 my belief that peace was
impending made me buy fifteen thousand bales as a starter. I proposed to follow my old
system of trading that is, of buying my full line which I have already described to you.
That very afternoon, after the market closed, we got the Unrestricted Warfare note.
There wasn't anything to do except to wait for the market to open the next day. I recall
that at Gridley's that night one of the greatest captains of industry in the country was
offering to sell any amount of United States Steel at five points below the closing price
that afternoon. There were several Pittsburgh millionaires within hearing. Nobody took
the big man's offer. They knew there was bound to be a whopping big break at the
opening.
Sure enough, the next morning the stock and commodity markets were in an uproar, as
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