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Nature Conservancy scientist Joseph Fargione and his colleagues, publishing in the journal Science, have calculated the number of years before a carbon-neutral fuel replacing fossil fuels can erase the carbon debt from land conversion as follows: n Indonesian peatland tropical forest to palm biodiesel: 419 years n Brazilian Amazon to soy biodiesel: 319 years n U.S. central grasslands to corn ethanol: 93 years n Indonesian tropical rainforest to palm biodiesel: 86 years n Brazilian cerrado (wooded grassland) to corn ethanol: 37 years n Brazilian cerrado to sugarcane ethanol: 17 years These estimates call into question the life-cycle carbon neutrality of biofuels unless they are made exclusively from agricultural wastes or are on already degraded and abandoned land. Three other points are relevant and potentially damaging. First, land is fungible. Even if one is certain the biofuel itself does not release carbon from land conversion, additional demand is placed on other crops and, through a knock-on effect, can lead to land conversion and carbon release. Second, the timing is important. A ton of carbon released today from land conversion is more damaging than a ton released 100 years from now. Land conversion and biofuels tilt the time profile of emissions in the wrong direction— toward the present. The third point is that under current accounting, carbon emissions are attributed to the country where land conversion takes place— for example, Indonesia and Malaysia for palm oil. But the real source often rests with biofuel mandate policies in biodiesel-importing countries. Environmental and Food Supply <strong>Issue</strong>s To be fair, U.S. legislation requires the lifetime greenhouse gas emissions from renewable fuels to be less than the fossil fuels they displace (20 percent less for corn ethanol and 50 percent less for biodiesel). For instance, the government estimates canola oil biodiesel emits 48 kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalent per million British thermal units, 46 <strong>SAIS</strong>PHERE whereas petroleum diesel emits 97 kilograms, and thus it (barely) passes the 50 percent reduction test. It is noteworthy that in the canola calculations, 31 of the 48 kilograms arise from “international land-use changes,” suggesting substantial carbon leakage through international trade. The EU also requires that biofuels save greenhouse gas emissions (35 percent compared to fossil fuel) and are produced “sustainably.” A considerable amount of carbon leakage may still occur through indirect land conversion and the numerous countries that impose mandates without safeguards. The second contentious issue is that biofuel mandates cut into world food and animal feed supplies and can cause food price inflation. U.S. legislation requires that in 2011 19.9 billion gallons of renewable fuels be consumed, of which 12.6 billion may be corn ethanol (capped at 15 billion in 2015). In 2010 the United States produced 39 percent of the world corn output. About 35 percent of U.S. corn went to ethanol production, assisted by high subsidies and protected against imports of Brazilian ethanol by high tariffs. Corn prices reached an all-time high of $318 per metric ton in April, surpassing their peak in the 2007–08 price spike and about tripling their 2004–05 average. These data are suggestive. But it is not possible to definitively pin today’s high prices primarily to ethanol mandates. More generally, the empirical evidence of the role of biofuels in the great worldwide food inflation of 2007–08 is controversial and mixed, and a number of studies tend to put other factors above biofuel mandates that were in place at the time. However, there is no doubt about the effects of food shortages and soaring food prices in developing countries; in many of them, more than 50 percent of household income is spent on food. Food-importing countries are, of course, most vulnerable. During the price surge, food riots and unrest arose in many nations of Africa, Asia and Latin America. And the world food trade system performed poorly. A large number of key countries (Argentina, Brazil, India, Russia, Ukraine, Vietnam) restricted the export of grains. The United States found it inconvenient to criticize too sharply, as President Richard Nixon was an early culprit when he embargoed soybean exports to Japan in 1973. The point here is not to rehash past food crises but to look ahead. World food demand is expected to double by mid-century. Global warming is a fact, and even with a serious world climate policy, which is not yet in sight, food supplies will be under pressure. Putting expanding biofuel mandates into this mix is risky. Widespread conversion of land to biofuels, as is happening now, can increase near-term carbon emissions and can seriously disrupt world food markets, with the heaviest costs borne by the poor. All is not lost. What is needed is a highly selective biofuels policy that targets technological advances in cellulosic ethanol where displacement of food Widespread conversion of land to biofuels, as is happening now, can increase near-term carbon emissions and can seriously disrupt world food markets, with the heaviest costs borne by the poor. production is least likely, that eliminates the distortive U.S. tariff on low-cost sugar ethanol from Brazil, that phases down the U.S. corn ethanol mandate, that encourages Southeast Asia to preserve its tropical forests and peatlands rather than plundering them through biodiesel trade, and that slaps penalties on countries that traffic in unregulated, uncertified biofuels. A restoration of international funding for agricultural research and development, and especially research on adapting to higher temperatures, is also badly needed. n Charles Pearson ’66 is a professor emeritus of International Economics, a visiting lecturer at the Bologna Center and a senior adjunct professor at the Diplomatic Academy of Vienna.
Counting on Agribusiness By Guy Pfeffermann and Nora Brown By fostering connections between agribusiness and farmers, Africa can promote shared economic growth with positive social impacts The importance of agriculture to Africa’s development and poverty reduction can hardly be overstated. Agriculture is Africa’s largest employer, supplying nearly two-thirds of all jobs and providing critical employment and sustenance to the rural population. Agriculture also accounts for a growing proportion of domestic trade, which allows the continent to feed its population and better protect itself from external shocks in the global market. At the same time, entrepreneurs in quite a few African countries have responded to growing foreign demand for highvalue-added products, leading to agriculture’s rising importance to exports. 2011–2012 47
Page 1 and 2: S AISPHERE 2011- 2012 SAISPHERE THE
Page 3 and 4: Features 08 Global Agriculture: Gai
Page 5 and 6: A Message From the Dean Jessica P.
Page 7 and 8: discover that conflict causes food
Page 9 and 10: ulture Can a single sector feed the
Page 11 and 12: Resource Constraints on Food Supply
Page 13 and 14: low-income countries have had few i
Page 15 and 16: Reforms
Page 17 and 18: state of Uttar Pradesh, have regist
Page 19 and 20: volution By Pieter Bottelier
Page 21 and 22: When, as a result of market reforms
Page 23 and 24: culture the Answer? By Marc J. Cohe
Page 25 and 26: of less than two hectares (about fi
Page 27 and 28: Economic Growth The debate over ris
Page 29 and 30: But the 21st century has since deli
Page 31 and 32: Year of Agriculture atSAIS The gene
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Page 35 and 36: Conf By P. Terrence Hopmann Year of
Page 37 and 38: of biofuels led to a jump in world
Page 39 and 40: By Tabitha Grace Mallory The Sea’
Page 41 and 42: tainable levels. Illegal fishing re
Page 43 and 44: India’s Water Crisis By Srinivasa
Page 45 and 46: Furthermore, because groundwater ca
Page 47: numbers are potentially catastrophi
Page 51 and 52: huge potential for expansion. From
Page 53 and 54: ing thePoor By Dalila Cervantes-God
Page 55 and 56: Boosting Food Security This leads u
Page 57 and 58: The New Oil? By Mariano Turzi In th
Page 59 and 60: and The ‘Right to Food’ Foreign
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Page 66 and 67: countries cope with crisis manageme
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Page 72 and 73: students, faculty and staff come to
Page 74 and 75: Events at the Center The Hopkins-Na
Page 76 and 77: 2011 almon Current-use Fellowships
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Page 86 and 87: eVents Tokyo, Japan Jim armington
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Page 90 and 91: eVents Current students and alumni
Page 92 and 93: ReFleCtions alumni news & notes The
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University of Oxford in March 2010
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professorial lecturer in the SAIS L
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Sam Whipple ’91 (back left), Arno
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peRCivaL mangLano ’98 has been ap
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D.C.-based nonprofit. AUA sends Ame
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from Haiti in February 2011, where
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We extend our gratitude to each don
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Why I Joined the Christian Herter S
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Kenneth X. Robbins Anne L. Rogers P
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Paul M. Holmes ◊ Repps B. Hudson
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Jae Youl Kim ✦ J. Morgan Landy Ch
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Gary Loberg Alex M. Lok Arthur R. L
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John B. Ivie Carol Ann M. Kenny Dea
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Elizabeth C. Wente Andrew A. Whitwo
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THANK YoU ... THANK YoU SAIS Volunt
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“We are deeply grateful for what
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