new geography of power. On the bottom of the pyramid are the most deprived, the 1 billion who go to bed hungry every night. Here, food security is equivalent to hunger. In 22 countries, including Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Haiti, Sierra Leone and Somalia, food is not a matter of power and weakness but of life and death. However, in this new geopolitical landscape, there are actors who own different resources and apply distinctive strategies to advance their position. In some countries, demand outstrips supply, and it is physically impossible to move the frontier of production farther out. Because of lack of land or water, countries in Asia (China, India, Japan, Malaysia and South Korea) and the Middle East (Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) have no way of keeping up with increased domestic demand. Leaders know agricultural shortages or food inflation are directly linked to social unrest and to potential regime breakdown. Protests for specific grievances can snowball into massive civil unrest, as the 2011 Arab revolutions seemed to confirm. Coupled with rising protectionism since the 2008 financial crisis, governments in these countries are quickly deeming trade insufficiently secure to provide for their populations. In consequence, they are grabbing land for food security. Although the means vary—acquiring grain elevators, adopting specific production agreements or leasing land—the strategic aim is the same: to secure supplies in the face of renewed competition. 56 <strong>SAIS</strong>PHERE The controversial issue is that many of these agreements are made by stateowned companies, essentially creating foreign enclaves in producing countries. Local hostility toward “land grabs” is the rule, not the exception. In 2007, the public outcry about the China-Philippines 2.5-million-acre lease for crops that would be shipped directly forced Manila to backtrack. In 2009, the government of Madagascar was toppled after it leased to Daewoo Logistics Corp., a South Korean company, half the island’s arable land for export production. How would Beijing react if, for example, the Argentine government imposed a total export ban on crops, in effect revoking the terms of an already signed lease? Should suppliers fail to comply, the only way to enforce such contracts would be through the use of retaliation or coercion. Then there are those who produce more than they consume. For agricultural producers, surplus is power. In a world that demands ever-increasing amounts of agricultural products, countries with vast extensions of fertile land and abundant freshwater resources have the upper hand. This is by no means a coordinated group, coalition or bloc. It constitutes by its very nature a heterogeneous grouping: Not all countries produce the same food commodities. Soybean Is King Soybeans are arguably the most essential input in the global food system. They are a highly efficient crop: About 40 percent of the calories in soybeans are derived from protein, compared to 25 percent for most other crops. This means the return per dollar spent is relatively high compared to other oilseed. For the poor, soy is an essential component of any dietary energy supply intended to inexpensively cover daily calorie requirements. For the better off, the crop is a cornerstone fodder component. And because livestock can be fed more efficiently with soybean-based feed, the massive spread of the crop has made chicken, beef and pork cheaper and more readily available worldwide. The biggest soybean producers in the world are the United States and South America; Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay combined account for half of total world exports. Demographic and environmental factors are projected to increasingly make buyers more dependent and South American sellers more competitive in the international agricultural market. Just as the rise of American economic might was made possible by a steady, secure supply of oil from the Middle East, the rise of China necessitates soybeans from South America. Assuming that relative scarcities continue to deepen and move the world into a new age of geopolitical competition, agricultural resources will be at the forefront of a global power struggle for food security. In the oil geopolitics of the 20th century, countries such as Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates became strategically relevant for U.S. foreign policy. Will the rising powers of the 21st century define core strategic interests in South American food production? If the 21st century is more about soil than oil, then Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay might become the geopolitical equivalent of the Persian Gulf countries. To what extent will Chinese foreign relations with Latin American agricultural exporters resemble the ones between the United States and Middle Eastern oil exporters? The answer to these questions will go far beyond <strong>SAIS</strong>’s “Year of Agriculture.” n Mariano Turzi ’07, Ph.D. ’10 is a professor in the Department of Political Science and International Studies at Torcuato Di Tella University in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
and The ‘Right to Food’ Foreign By Ruth Wedgwood and Tiffany Basciano Land Deals in Africa With hunger in the Horn of Africa making headlines once again, the importance of sound agricultural policy in international development is even more apparent. The sharp increase in foreign investment in largescale agriculture in Africa and elsewhere—particularly through the purchase or lease of millions of arable acres—also has prompted a heated debate over whether this aspect of international trade and investment is a positive practice. 2011–2012 57
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