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new geography of power. On the bottom
of the pyramid are the most deprived,
the 1 billion who go to bed hungry every
night. Here, food security is equivalent
to hunger. In 22 countries, including
Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Haiti, Sierra
Leone and Somalia, food is not a matter
of power and weakness but of life and
death. However, in this new geopolitical
landscape, there are actors who own
different resources and apply distinctive
strategies to advance their position.
In some countries, demand outstrips
supply, and it is physically impossible to
move the frontier of production farther
out. Because of lack of land or water,
countries in Asia (China, India, Japan,
Malaysia and South Korea) and the
Middle East (Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait,
Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab
Emirates) have no way of keeping up
with increased domestic demand.
Leaders know agricultural shortages
or food inflation are directly linked to
social unrest and to potential regime
breakdown. Protests for specific grievances
can snowball into massive civil
unrest, as the 2011 Arab revolutions
seemed to confirm. Coupled with rising
protectionism since the 2008 financial
crisis, governments in these countries
are quickly deeming trade insufficiently
secure to provide for their populations.
In consequence, they are grabbing land
for food security. Although the means
vary—acquiring grain elevators, adopting
specific production agreements or
leasing land—the strategic aim is the
same: to secure supplies in the face of
renewed competition.
56 SAISPHERE
The controversial issue is that many
of these agreements are made by stateowned
companies, essentially creating
foreign enclaves in producing countries.
Local hostility toward “land grabs” is the
rule, not the exception. In 2007, the public
outcry about the China-Philippines
2.5-million-acre lease for crops that
would be shipped directly forced Manila
to backtrack. In 2009, the government of
Madagascar was toppled after it leased to
Daewoo Logistics Corp., a South Korean
company, half the island’s arable land for
export production. How would Beijing
react if, for example, the Argentine government
imposed a total export ban on
crops, in effect revoking the terms of an
already signed lease? Should suppliers
fail to comply, the only way to enforce
such contracts would be through the use
of retaliation or coercion.
Then there are those who produce
more than they consume. For agricultural
producers, surplus is power. In
a world that demands ever-increasing
amounts of agricultural products, countries
with vast extensions of fertile land
and abundant freshwater resources have
the upper hand. This is by no means a
coordinated group, coalition or bloc. It
constitutes by its very nature a heterogeneous
grouping: Not all countries produce
the same food commodities.
Soybean Is King
Soybeans are arguably the most essential
input in the global food system.
They are a highly efficient crop: About
40 percent of the calories in soybeans
are derived from protein, compared to
25 percent for most other crops. This
means the return per dollar spent is
relatively high compared to other oilseed.
For the poor, soy is an essential
component of any dietary energy supply
intended to inexpensively cover daily
calorie requirements. For the better off,
the crop is a cornerstone fodder component.
And because livestock can be
fed more efficiently with soybean-based
feed, the massive spread of the crop has
made chicken, beef and pork cheaper
and more readily available worldwide.
The biggest soybean producers in the
world are the United States and South
America; Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay
combined account for half of total world
exports. Demographic and environmental
factors are projected to increasingly
make buyers more dependent and South
American sellers more competitive in
the international agricultural market.
Just as the rise of American economic
might was made possible by a steady,
secure supply of oil from the Middle
East, the rise of China necessitates soybeans
from South America.
Assuming that relative scarcities continue
to deepen and move the world into
a new age of geopolitical competition,
agricultural resources will be at the forefront
of a global power struggle for food
security. In the oil geopolitics of the 20th
century, countries such as Bahrain, Iran,
Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia
and the United Arab Emirates became
strategically relevant for U.S. foreign
policy. Will the rising powers of the 21st
century define core strategic interests in
South American food production?
If the 21st century is more about
soil than oil, then Argentina, Brazil,
Paraguay and Uruguay might become
the geopolitical equivalent of the Persian
Gulf countries. To what extent will
Chinese foreign relations with Latin
American agricultural exporters resemble
the ones between the United States
and Middle Eastern oil exporters? The
answer to these questions will go far
beyond SAIS’s “Year of Agriculture.” n
Mariano Turzi ’07, Ph.D. ’10 is a
professor in the Department of Political
Science and International Studies at
Torcuato Di Tella University in Buenos
Aires, Argentina.