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54 <strong>SAIS</strong>PHERE S Throughout history, securing food resources has been critical for survival. For nation states, food security is assigned a strategic value. As such, it drives their external actions in peaceful or belligerent ways. From ancient Athens to modern America, agricultural producers have sought to protect domestic grain supply, while those with no possibility to feed their own populations are forced to seek out those resources abroad by means of trade or conquest.
The New Oil? By Mariano Turzi In the coming years, access to edible commodities will become a key strategic source of power, bringing back to the forefront an old fault line in international relations: food geopolitics. The strategic relevance of agricultural products has been undervalued relative to other natural resources such as gold, silver and oil. Since the mid- 20th century, an age of abundance and economic development, oil has been regarded as the most critical commodity. But agricultural commodities are much more vital goods: One can substitute driving for public transportation but cannot help eating and drinking on a daily basis. If energy scarcity can disrupt the normal functioning of a society, the absence of food and water can cause its sudden breakdown. As the geopolitical balance between the emerging and the developed world shifts, several trends will combine to intensify competition for food products. Decision-makers will face new national security dilemmas and foreign policy challenges. Some will come from increased demand and others from the nature of the supply system. World demand for agricultural commodities is driven by three Fs: food, feed and fuel. The first leg, food, is the result of an impressive background demographic dynamic: The global population, which grows by around 80 million people per year, was expected to surpass the 7 billion mark by late 2011 and to reach 9 billion by the end of the century. Renowned agronomist Norman Borlaug estimated in 2009 that over the next 50 years, the world will have to produce more food than it has in the past 10,000 years. This means a structural upward shift in food demand. The second component, feed, answers to the rise of the emerging world, with particular focus on Asia. When living standards rise, so does demand for meat and dairy products. As people from Brazil, China and India abandon poverty and move into the Year of Agriculture at<strong>SAIS</strong> burgeoning middle class, they diversify their diets to include more vegetable oils, meat and dairy products. There are not only more people, but also more people eating pork, chicken and beef. The third element is fuel. Expectations of oil price hikes and supply shortages have triggered a growing demand for energy from the biofuels industry. Supported by policy mandates, countries are seeking to diversify their energy sources by incorporating renewables. When the international price of corn soared in 2007, Mexico underwent a period of social unrest and political instability due to the “tortilla wars.” When corn demand from U.S. ethanol plants soared in 2007, prices spiked across the border. In the “tortilla wars,” tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets of Mexico City and demanded a solution to the 50 percent increase in the price of corn tortillas, a staple of Mexican diet and culture. On the supply side, climate change is generating increased temperature volatility and alteration of precipitation patterns. In 2010, for example, a drought and heat wave decimated the Russian wheat harvest, leading to a rise in the price of flour and bread worldwide. Second, there are severe price distortions due to global investors’ hunting for safe hedges to diversify their portfolios in times of financial turmoil, turning commodities into an asset class. New investment products—food derivatives and indexed commodities—open speculative opportunities that put upward pressure on prices. Third, as urbanization grows—in 2010 more than half the world’s population became urban—land available for cultivation decreases. Finally, water mismanagement and overproduction are leading to increasing desertification, destroying previously arable land. Although not immune to criticism, biotechnology developments have the potential to counter these supply-reducing trends. Desperate for Land The nature and composition of world agricultural demand and supply are fast becoming important dimensions of international relations, opening up a 2011–2012 55
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S AISPHERE 2011- 2012 SAISPHERE THE
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Features 08 Global Agriculture: Gai
Page 5 and 6: A Message From the Dean Jessica P.
Page 7 and 8: discover that conflict causes food
Page 9 and 10: ulture Can a single sector feed the
Page 11 and 12: Resource Constraints on Food Supply
Page 13 and 14: low-income countries have had few i
Page 15 and 16: Reforms
Page 17 and 18: state of Uttar Pradesh, have regist
Page 19 and 20: volution By Pieter Bottelier
Page 21 and 22: When, as a result of market reforms
Page 23 and 24: culture the Answer? By Marc J. Cohe
Page 25 and 26: of less than two hectares (about fi
Page 27 and 28: Economic Growth The debate over ris
Page 29 and 30: But the 21st century has since deli
Page 31 and 32: Year of Agriculture atSAIS The gene
Page 33 and 34: While the going is good, it is easy
Page 35 and 36: Conf By P. Terrence Hopmann Year of
Page 37 and 38: of biofuels led to a jump in world
Page 39 and 40: By Tabitha Grace Mallory The Sea’
Page 41 and 42: tainable levels. Illegal fishing re
Page 43 and 44: India’s Water Crisis By Srinivasa
Page 45 and 46: Furthermore, because groundwater ca
Page 47 and 48: numbers are potentially catastrophi
Page 49 and 50: Counting on Agribusiness By Guy Pfe
Page 51 and 52: huge potential for expansion. From
Page 53 and 54: ing thePoor By Dalila Cervantes-God
Page 55: Boosting Food Security This leads u
Page 59 and 60: and The ‘Right to Food’ Foreign
Page 61: food” into the charter and argues
Page 64 and 65: Hungry 1 Billion By Odette Boya Res
Page 66 and 67: countries cope with crisis manageme
Page 68 and 69: Bologna Institute for Policy Resear
Page 70 and 71: Autumn is a contradictory time for
Page 72 and 73: students, faculty and staff come to
Page 74 and 75: Events at the Center The Hopkins-Na
Page 76 and 77: 2011 almon Current-use Fellowships
Page 78 and 79: Tomorrow’s Leaders, Today’s Phi
Page 80 and 81: SAIS Advisory Council T he SAIS Adv
Page 82 and 83: in tHe sPotliGHt Work With Internat
Page 84 and 85: eVents Alumni Communities Around th
Page 86 and 87: eVents Tokyo, Japan Jim armington
Page 88 and 89: eVents Panama City, Panama � sais
Page 90 and 91: eVents Current students and alumni
Page 92 and 93: ReFleCtions alumni news & notes The
Page 94 and 95: International Commercial Arbitratio
Page 96 and 97: 1958 Dick Murphy ’58 and Luda Mur
Page 98 and 99: University of Oxford in March 2010
Page 100 and 101: professorial lecturer in the SAIS L
Page 102 and 103: Sam Whipple ’91 (back left), Arno
Page 104 and 105: peRCivaL mangLano ’98 has been ap
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D.C.-based nonprofit. AUA sends Ame
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from Haiti in February 2011, where
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We extend our gratitude to each don
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Why I Joined the Christian Herter S
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Kenneth X. Robbins Anne L. Rogers P
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Paul M. Holmes ◊ Repps B. Hudson
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Jae Youl Kim ✦ J. Morgan Landy Ch
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Gary Loberg Alex M. Lok Arthur R. L
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John B. Ivie Carol Ann M. Kenny Dea
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Elizabeth C. Wente Andrew A. Whitwo
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THANK YoU ... THANK YoU SAIS Volunt
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“We are deeply grateful for what
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Show Your SAIS Pride Choose from a
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