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CUVX Design – VT Team 2 Page 40P i , and a consequence of occurrence, C i , are estimated for each event using Table 25 and Table 26. The OMOR iscalculated using these weights and probabilities in Equation 3-1:wOMOR = WcosW w P C(3-1)iperf ∑ PiCi+ Wt ∑ wjPjCj+i ∑ wijiOnce the OMOR variables have been determined, the OMOR function is used as the third objective attribute inthe MOGO.sched∑kkkkSWBSRisk TypeRiskIDDV#Armament Performance 1 DV 10Hull Performance 2 DV 1Propulsion Performance 3 DV 20Hull Performance 4 DV 1Hull Performance 5 DV 1Hull Performance 6 DV 1Hull Performance 7 DV 8Hull Performance 8 DV 8Propulsion Schedule 9 DV 20Propulsion Cost 10 DV 20DVDescriptionPeripheralVLSWPTH hullformIntegratedpower systemWPTH hullformWPTH hullformWPTH hullformSeparatelaunch deckSeparatelaunch deckIntegratedpower systemIntegratedpower systemTable 24. CUVX Risk RegisterDVValueAuxiliary Schedule 11 DV 20 EMALS >5Auxiliary Cost 12 DV 20 EMALS >5Armament Cost 13 DV 10Armament Schedule 14 DV 10Hull Schedule 15 DV 1Hull Cost 16 DV 1PeripheralVLSPeripheralVLSWPTH hullformWPTH hullformRisk EventE i1 Failure of PVLS EDM test2>522211>5>51122Unable to accurately predictendurance resistanceDevelopment and use ofnew IPS systemUnable to accurately predictsustained speed resistanceUnable to accurately predictWPTH seakeepingperformanceUnable to accurately predictWPTH extreme motions andstabilityConcept doesn’t workpreventing simultaneouslaunch and recovery forSEAD missionConcept doesn’t workpreventing simultaneouslaunch and recovery forStrike missionDevelopment andintegration of new IPSsystem will be behindscheduleDevelopment andintegration of new IPSsystem will have costoverunsDevelopment andintegration of new EMALSsystem will be behindscheduleDevelopment andintegration of new EMALSsystem will have costoverunsPVLS EDM test anddevelopment system willhave cost overunsPVLS EDM test anddevelopment will be behindscheduleDelays and problems withWPTH testingDelays and problems withWPTH testingRisk Description P i C i R iWill require use of VLS orRAM with impact on flight deckand hangar deck area and opsWill over-predict endurancerange.New equipment and systemswill have reduced reliabilityWill over-predict sustainedspeed.Seakeeping performance will notbe acceptableDamaged stability performancewill not be acceptableUnforeseen problems withdedicated launch deck (launch,fuel, weapons)Unforeseen problems withdedicated launch deck (launch,fuel, weapons)Unexpected problems with newequipment and systemsUnexpected problems with newequipment and systemsUnexpected problems with newequipment and systems andintegration with IPS pulse powerUnexpected problems with newequipment and systems andintegration with IPS pulse powerUnexpected problems with newequipment and systemsUnexpected problems with newequipment and systemsUnexpected problems orunsatisfactory performance ofnew hull formUnexpected problems orunsatisfactory performance ofnew hull form0.3 0.5 0.150.2 0.3 0.060.4 0.4 0.160.2 0.5 0.10.5 0.5 0.250.7 0.7 0.490.4 0.8 0.320.4 0.9 0.360.3 0.3 0.090.3 0.6 0.180.5 0.4 0.200.5 0.6 0.30.2 0.4 0.080.2 0.2 0.040.5 0.7 0.350.5 0.6 0.3
CUVX Design – VT Team 2 Page 41Table 25. Event Probability EstimateProbability What is the Likelihood the Risk Event Will Occur?0.1 Remote0.3 Unlikely0.5 Likely0.7 Highly likely0.9 Near CertainTable 26. Event Consequence EstimateConsequence Given the Risk is Realized, What Is the Magnitude of the Impact?Level Performance Schedule Cost0.1 Minimal or no impact Minimal or no impact Minimal or no impact0.3Acceptable with some Additional resources required; 10%major program milestoneFigure 25. Performance RiskFigure 26. Cost RiskFigure 27. Schedule Risk3.5.3 Cost (Appendix D.1 CUVX Ship Synthesis Model, Module 10)Lead ship acquisition cost, and follow ship acquisition cost are particularly important for getting the concept ofa CUVX carrier “off the ground”. Two separate multi-objective optimizations are performed for CUVX, the firstusing lead ship acquisition cost, and the second using mean follow-ship acquisition cost.CUVX construction costs are estimated for each SWBS group using weight-based equations adapted from anearly ASSET cost model and US Navy cost data. Historical costs are inflated to the base year using a 2.3% averageannual inflation rate from 1981 data. The CUVX base year is assumed to be 2005. Figure 28 illustrates total leadship acquisition cost components calculated in the model. Lead ship costs include detail design engineering andplans for the class (SWBS 800 – Integration and Engineering) and all tooling, jigs and special facilities for the class
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