Contextual Determinants of Electoral System Choice - Ãbo Akademi

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There are, nonetheless, a number of studies that indicate that the effective numberof parties is higher among majority systems than among plurality systems. InLijphart’s study of party systems and electoral systems (1994b), plurality systemshave an average value of 2.04, whereas the average value among majority systemsis 2.77 (1994b: 96). When the four elections under AV and six elections underTBM in C. Anckar’s study of effects of electoral systems are combined into asingle index, the level of party system fragmentation is 2.79, compared to 2.14 inplurality systems (2002: 77). In the earlier presented study of PR reforms by Blais,Dobrzynska and Indridason (2005), the more fragmented party system amongmajority systems, in comparison with plurality systems, is seen as a main reasonfor the adoption of PR.The criterion for inclusion in the comparison groups is that the same electoralsystem has been applied in at least three subsequent legislative elections. By usingthe same electoral system in several subsequent elections, the party systembecomes more stable and less vulnerable to other influences than the electoralsystem. The aforesaid does not, however, under any circumstances mean that theelectoral system would be the only determinant of a stable party system. Partysystem fragmentation in the countries of the world at the end of 2003, or followingthe last available election results, is observed. Unfortunately, the criterion of threesubsequent elections cannot be applied in the samples of electoral system change,because the number of cases would be too small. In order to get a higher level ofparty system stability, two elections prior to each electoral system change areincluded. Notwithstanding, the number of electoral system changes is small,especially changes from PR to plurality systems, and changes among democraciesin general. 27 Therefore, another enlarged sample of electoral system changes thatincludes changes from plurality to PR and mixed systems, which independentlycombine plurality elections with PR, is compared to plurality systems. Concerningchanges from PR, likewise, a comparison between PR systems and electoralsystem changes from PR to plurality and mixed systems (independent combinationof plurality and PR) is conducted.27 An inclusion of majority systems would only slightly increase the number of cases. Furthermore, approximatelyhalf of all cases would be French elections.124
The association between party system fragmentation and electoral system choice isanalyzed in the total data sample as well as in democracies. Usually, however, thismatter is studied in democracies only, because the range of choice is limited innon-democracies, which affects the party system structure. Consequently, greaterimportance is attached to the results from the democratic sample. Concerningelectoral system change, the criterion for inclusion in the democratic sample is thatthe last two elections prior to the electoral reform have been conducted underdemocratic circumstances. If the second last elections before the electoral systemchange have not been democratic, they are excluded from the analysis. Mean valueanalyses are conducted.3.3.1.4 Party System TransformationBefore the shift from majoritarian elections to proportional representation, WesternEuropean countries already had multi-party systems in the sense of competitionbetween two or several parties. This dimension is, notwithstanding, relevant withregard to the democratization process and its influence on electoral system choice.In terms of legal proceedings, no transformation of the party system took place incontinental Europe a century ago. Indirectly, however, the extension of suffrageled to a more fragmented party system by facilitating the organization of lowerclassparties.In this study, I shall focus on party system transformation implying a change fromone-party system to multi-party system. This dimension is a cornerstone of thedemocratization process, albeit it by no means guarantee the realization ofdemocratic politics. In several one-party states, elections have been held despitethe fact that no competition has been allowed. These elections have, with a fewexceptions, been held under a majoritarian system, since there is no need forproportional seat allocation in a party system with only one party. 28 Countries thathave lifted their ban on political parties (other than the ruling organization) are,according to this hypothesis, expected to adopt mixed or proportional systems.The units of analysis are all cases of transformation from a one-party to a multipartysystem between 1945 and 2003. Cases where the multi-party system is28 In e.g. Benin, list PR has officially been in force since the 1964 elections, even though multi-party elections didnot take place until 1991 (Hartmann 1999a: 82-83).125
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Krister LundellContextual Determina
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CONTEXTUAL DETERMINANTS OF ELECTORA
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CIP Cataloguing in PublicationLunde
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at Åbo Akademi University, the Fac
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3.2 Explanations of Electoral Syste
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9. CONCLUSION 2239.1 The Rational P
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politics. Both approaches bear rele
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electoral system choice as an epoch
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1.2 The Importance of Electoral Sys
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Within the range of democratic inst
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will depend on the specific cleavag
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Before describing different voting
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2.1.1 Ballot StructureThe ballot st
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formula, and the variety of elector
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ather be regarded as a characterist
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2.2.1 Plurality Systems2.2.1.1 Sing
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mixture of BV and PBV. In my classi
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Weaver 1984: 198-199). CV implies t
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total election, often pull out of t
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disadvantage is that it presupposes
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parties and minority groups. Furthe
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simultaneously avoiding disproporti
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and Blais. They also agree that the
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Whether one formula applies or not
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difficult. Even an independent comb
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attention to all three main dimensi
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(national, regional and local lists
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The degree of proportionality also
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variables: ethnic and cultural dive
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smallest category, representing 15
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democracies. 12 Nevertheless, the g
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(Vanuatu) are represented by merely
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3. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORKIn this cha
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ecognition of opposing views in the
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systems. If we reformulate the ques
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the rules, the lack of knowledge is
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not. Consequently, their analysis c
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proportional electoral systems. He
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groups as possible, to avoid attemp
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associated with certain features an
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also called electoral engineering.
Page 85 and 86: (2002: 14). Public opinion, often e
Page 87 and 88: Similar reform societies were estab
Page 89 and 90: systematically favor or disfavor ce
Page 91 and 92: interests based on ascriptive commu
Page 93 and 94: argues, both majorities and minorit
Page 95 and 96: A more popular form of recognizing
Page 97 and 98: Among the three basic majoritarian
Page 99 and 100: politics. When universal suffrage w
Page 101 and 102: and no electoral threshold in order
Page 103 and 104: threatened to change the current el
Page 105 and 106: inadequate since electoral systems
Page 107 and 108: electoral reform is likely to occur
Page 109 and 110: main advocates of proportional repr
Page 111 and 112: whereas majoritarian systems prevai
Page 113 and 114: The rational learning model sees po
Page 115 and 116: 3.2.4.1 Colonial LegacyColonial leg
Page 117 and 118: Different colonial powers administe
Page 119 and 120: The Australian and American colonia
Page 121 and 122: epresented the “wave of the democ
Page 123 and 124: The second wave of democratization
Page 125 and 126: parliamentary elections, particular
Page 127 and 128: parliamentary or presidential gover
Page 129 and 130: measure of ethnic and cultural dive
Page 131 and 132: medium size. The other 40 per cent
Page 133 and 134: size and electoral systems, two str
Page 135: that have previously held general e
Page 139 and 140: democratization process. Neverthele
Page 141 and 142: The occurrence of list PR in former
Page 143 and 144: Third, an electoral system must exi
Page 145 and 146: Three matters are of interest in co
Page 147 and 148: according to Lijphart’s definitio
Page 149 and 150: 3.3.3.2 Territorial OrganizationA n
Page 151 and 152: to the whole territory. Countries a
Page 153 and 154: or non-existence of an ‘additiona
Page 155 and 156: subset of the world’s countries,
Page 157 and 158: Concerning data on party system fra
Page 159 and 160: 22). 30 Nevertheless, the coded yea
Page 161 and 162: (1) free and fair elections of the
Page 163 and 164: (e.g. 1984; 1990). The index is bas
Page 165 and 166: standards and Mauritius was democra
Page 167 and 168: Table 5.1. Ethnic and cultural frag
Page 169 and 170: Table 5.4. Ethnic and cultural frag
Page 171 and 172: values. Each integer of the logarit
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Page 175 and 176: 1966, and Cyprus 1981. Suriname ado
Page 177 and 178: significant. 36 The large standard
Page 179 and 180: small standard deviation values ind
Page 181 and 182: samples with changes to mixed syste
Page 183 and 184: a consequence of the party system t
Page 185 and 186: eplace plurality systems with mixed
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former British colonies did not inh
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Table 6.2. Colonial legacy and elec
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impact on the dependent variable wh
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(1993). All these countries adopted
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On the basis of figure 2.1 in secti
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their electoral systems. Bulgaria a
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as a general determinant of institu
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The average population size among c
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Only two federal states chose elect
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any major role. Regional diffusion,
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Plurality systems dominate the thir
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inherit the plurality system but al
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popular system between 1945 and 199
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presidential countries. Only Lebano
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legislative bodies are distinguishe
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legislative relations should also t
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etween independent and dependent va
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least 90 cases. Notwithstanding, as
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Table 8.1. Patterns of diffusion an
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other systems returns little to exp
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extent but the coefficient is small
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territorial organization and chambe
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there are only two (Gabon and Vanua
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the rational perspective, since it
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9. CONCLUSIONThis study is a contri
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shows that countries having adopted
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doubt that electoral systems affect
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The third variable within the cultu
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9.4 Final RemarksThe impact of the
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APPENDIX IClassification of countri
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Sri Lanka - SMP 1948The Constitutio
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Laos - SMP-BV 1953Laos achieved ful
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Greece - List PR 1958After having a
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Madagascar - Super-mixed 1960The 19
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Iran - SMP-BV 1963In 1963, Iran ado
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Polyarchy dataset between 1960 and
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Morocco - SMP 1970The 1970 Constitu
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APPENDIX IICountry (year of elector
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Country Democracy Electoral system
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Country Democracy Electoral system
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APPENDIX IIICountry (year of electo
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Country Colonial Regional Form of T
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Country Colonial Regional Form of T
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APPENDIX IVParty system fragmentati
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Proportional systems - change from
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REFERENCESAhmed, Nizam. 2001. “Ba
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Blais, André and R. K. Carty. 1987
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Duverger, Maurice. 1984. “Which I
Page 283 and 284:
Hartmann, Christof. 1999b. “Cote
Page 285 and 286:
Koch, Christian. 2001. “Kuwait”
Page 287 and 288:
Lijphart, Arend. 2002. “The Wave
Page 289 and 290:
Norris, Pippa. 1995. “Introductio
Page 291 and 292:
Riker, William H. 1982. “The Two-
Page 293 and 294:
Taagepera, Rein and Matthew S. Shug
Page 295:
Why have countries in different par
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