Contextual Determinants of Electoral System Choice - Ãbo Akademi

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e made. As to colonial diffusion, four variables are conceivable: British legacy,French legacy, Soviet legacy, and a fourth variable that observes all formercolonies. Legacy of other colonial powers than these are not considered, becausethey possessed only a few colonies.In section 6.1.1, we noticed that Soviet legacy does not correlate with electoralsystem choice. Accordingly, this variable is not included in the regression analysis.A control for multicollinearity shows that the variable that observes all cases ofcolonial diffusion correlates rather strongly with both British legacy and Frenchlegacy, particularly with the first mentioned. As a consequence, the variable thatconcerns all colonies is excluded. This variable also correlates significantly withregional diffusion and temporal diffusion, which further justifies the exclusion.Both regional and temporal diffusion are operationalized as dummy variables. Thelatter is represented by four dummies, each variable denoting a distinct period. Thefirst period, which consists of considerably fewer cases than the following periods,is excluded from the analysis.The four variables of the cultural and historical perspective are analyzed in table8.1. Beginning with the comparison of plurality systems with other systems, wenotice that British legacy stands out as the most important factor. French legacyalso affects the adoption of plurality systems but not to the same extent as Britishlegacy. The rareness of plurality choices in recent times results in significanteffects of the fourth period when plurality systems are compared to the otherelectoral system categories. The association is particularly strong when mixedsystems are compared to plurality systems, suggesting that mixed systems havebeen very popular during the fourth period. Distinct trends of electoral systemchoice did not exist during the second and the third period. Regional diffusionplays an important role in explaining the introduction of proportional systems incomparison with majority and mixed systems.The model chi-square value is significant at the 0.001 level. SPSS also providesgeneral tests of significance on the basis of the chi-square value for eachindependent variable, called likelihood ratio tests. The effects of British and Frenchlegacy are significant at the 0.001 level, whereas regional diffusion and the fourthperiod exceed the 0.01 level of significance.210
Table 8.1. Patterns of diffusion and electoral system choice. Multinomial logistic regression.Dependent variable Independent variables B Std. error Prob.Majority – plurality British legacy -3.006 1.082 **French legacy -1.663 .868Regional diffusion -.741 .464Period II (1956-1969) -.086 .736Period III (1970-1989) -.165 .678Period IV (1990-2003) 1.665 .677 *Mixed – plurality British legacy -2.392 .815 **French legacy -2.397 1.117 *Regional diffusion -.747 .441Period II (1956-1969) .189 .766Period III (1970-1989) .248 .696Period IV (1990-2003) 2.302 .702 ***PR – plurality British legacy -1.961 .636 **French legacy -3.080 1.081 **Regional diffusion .480 .392Period II (1956-1969) .206 .567Period III (1970-1989) -.764 .577Period IV (1990-2003) 1.258 .580 *Mixed – majority British legacy .614 1.297French legacy -.734 1.336Regional diffusion -.006 .465Period II (1956-1969) .275 .917Period III (1970-1989) .413 .823Period IV (1990-2003) .636 .733PR – majority British legacy 1.046 1.190French legacy -1.417 1.311Regional diffusion 1.221 .434 **Period II (1956-1969) .292 .768Period III (1970-1989) -.598 .739Period IV (1990-2003) -.408 .633PR – mixed British legacy .432 .955French legacy -.683 1.488Regional diffusion 1.227 .401 **Period II (1956-1969) .017 .794Period III (1970-1989) -1.012 .755Period IV (1990-2003) -1.044 .659N 268Model chi-square 126.851 ***-2 Log likelihood 133.425Nagelkerke R square .406Note: * = significant at the 0.05 level, ** = significant at the 0.01 level, *** = significant at the0.001 level211
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Krister LundellContextual Determina
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CONTEXTUAL DETERMINANTS OF ELECTORA
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CIP Cataloguing in PublicationLunde
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at Åbo Akademi University, the Fac
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3.2 Explanations of Electoral Syste
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9. CONCLUSION 2239.1 The Rational P
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politics. Both approaches bear rele
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electoral system choice as an epoch
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1.2 The Importance of Electoral Sys
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Within the range of democratic inst
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will depend on the specific cleavag
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Before describing different voting
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2.1.1 Ballot StructureThe ballot st
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formula, and the variety of elector
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ather be regarded as a characterist
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2.2.1 Plurality Systems2.2.1.1 Sing
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mixture of BV and PBV. In my classi
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Weaver 1984: 198-199). CV implies t
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total election, often pull out of t
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disadvantage is that it presupposes
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parties and minority groups. Furthe
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simultaneously avoiding disproporti
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and Blais. They also agree that the
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Whether one formula applies or not
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difficult. Even an independent comb
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attention to all three main dimensi
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(national, regional and local lists
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The degree of proportionality also
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variables: ethnic and cultural dive
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smallest category, representing 15
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democracies. 12 Nevertheless, the g
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(Vanuatu) are represented by merely
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3. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORKIn this cha
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ecognition of opposing views in the
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systems. If we reformulate the ques
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the rules, the lack of knowledge is
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not. Consequently, their analysis c
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proportional electoral systems. He
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groups as possible, to avoid attemp
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associated with certain features an
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also called electoral engineering.
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(2002: 14). Public opinion, often e
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Similar reform societies were estab
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systematically favor or disfavor ce
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interests based on ascriptive commu
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argues, both majorities and minorit
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A more popular form of recognizing
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Among the three basic majoritarian
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politics. When universal suffrage w
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and no electoral threshold in order
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threatened to change the current el
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inadequate since electoral systems
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electoral reform is likely to occur
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main advocates of proportional repr
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whereas majoritarian systems prevai
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The rational learning model sees po
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3.2.4.1 Colonial LegacyColonial leg
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Different colonial powers administe
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The Australian and American colonia
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epresented the “wave of the democ
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The second wave of democratization
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parliamentary elections, particular
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parliamentary or presidential gover
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measure of ethnic and cultural dive
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medium size. The other 40 per cent
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size and electoral systems, two str
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that have previously held general e
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The association between party syste
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democratization process. Neverthele
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The occurrence of list PR in former
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Third, an electoral system must exi
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Three matters are of interest in co
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according to Lijphart’s definitio
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3.3.3.2 Territorial OrganizationA n
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to the whole territory. Countries a
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or non-existence of an ‘additiona
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subset of the world’s countries,
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Concerning data on party system fra
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22). 30 Nevertheless, the coded yea
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(1) free and fair elections of the
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(e.g. 1984; 1990). The index is bas
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standards and Mauritius was democra
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Table 5.1. Ethnic and cultural frag
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Table 5.4. Ethnic and cultural frag
Page 171 and 172: values. Each integer of the logarit
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Page 175 and 176: 1966, and Cyprus 1981. Suriname ado
Page 177 and 178: significant. 36 The large standard
Page 179 and 180: small standard deviation values ind
Page 181 and 182: samples with changes to mixed syste
Page 183 and 184: a consequence of the party system t
Page 185 and 186: eplace plurality systems with mixed
Page 187 and 188: former British colonies did not inh
Page 189 and 190: Table 6.2. Colonial legacy and elec
Page 191 and 192: impact on the dependent variable wh
Page 193 and 194: (1993). All these countries adopted
Page 195 and 196: On the basis of figure 2.1 in secti
Page 197 and 198: their electoral systems. Bulgaria a
Page 199 and 200: as a general determinant of institu
Page 201 and 202: The average population size among c
Page 203 and 204: Only two federal states chose elect
Page 205 and 206: any major role. Regional diffusion,
Page 207 and 208: Plurality systems dominate the thir
Page 209 and 210: inherit the plurality system but al
Page 211 and 212: popular system between 1945 and 199
Page 213 and 214: presidential countries. Only Lebano
Page 215 and 216: legislative bodies are distinguishe
Page 217 and 218: legislative relations should also t
Page 219 and 220: etween independent and dependent va
Page 221: least 90 cases. Notwithstanding, as
Page 225 and 226: other systems returns little to exp
Page 227 and 228: extent but the coefficient is small
Page 229 and 230: territorial organization and chambe
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Page 233 and 234: the rational perspective, since it
Page 235 and 236: 9. CONCLUSIONThis study is a contri
Page 237 and 238: shows that countries having adopted
Page 239 and 240: doubt that electoral systems affect
Page 241 and 242: The third variable within the cultu
Page 243 and 244: 9.4 Final RemarksThe impact of the
Page 245 and 246: APPENDIX IClassification of countri
Page 247 and 248: Sri Lanka - SMP 1948The Constitutio
Page 249 and 250: Laos - SMP-BV 1953Laos achieved ful
Page 251 and 252: Greece - List PR 1958After having a
Page 253 and 254: Madagascar - Super-mixed 1960The 19
Page 255 and 256: Iran - SMP-BV 1963In 1963, Iran ado
Page 257 and 258: Polyarchy dataset between 1960 and
Page 259 and 260: Morocco - SMP 1970The 1970 Constitu
Page 261 and 262: APPENDIX IICountry (year of elector
Page 263 and 264: Country Democracy Electoral system
Page 265 and 266: Country Democracy Electoral system
Page 267 and 268: APPENDIX IIICountry (year of electo
Page 269 and 270: Country Colonial Regional Form of T
Page 271 and 272: Country Colonial Regional Form of T
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APPENDIX IVParty system fragmentati
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Proportional systems - change from
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REFERENCESAhmed, Nizam. 2001. “Ba
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Blais, André and R. K. Carty. 1987
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Duverger, Maurice. 1984. “Which I
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Hartmann, Christof. 1999b. “Cote
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Koch, Christian. 2001. “Kuwait”
Page 287 and 288:
Lijphart, Arend. 2002. “The Wave
Page 289 and 290:
Norris, Pippa. 1995. “Introductio
Page 291 and 292:
Riker, William H. 1982. “The Two-
Page 293 and 294:
Taagepera, Rein and Matthew S. Shug
Page 295:
Why have countries in different par
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