Contextual Determinants of Electoral System Choice - Ãbo Akademi

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inary logistic regression, category A is compared to category B. Four categorieson the dependent variable implies that six such comparisons has to be conducted:A to B, A to C, A to D, B to C, B to D, and C to D. A discussion on whichcoefficients are presented is provided in the chapter on multivariate analysis.The multiple analyses are preceded by descriptive and bivariate analyses in whichsimpler methods are used. Mean value analyses, frequencies, chi-square tests, andcorrelation analyses are applied in order to explore bivariate patterns betweendeterminants and the dependent variable. Due to the different nature of theexplanatory variables, the classification and identification of electoral systemsvaries from case to case; some independent variables require a more detailedcategorization, whereas the four-scale classification constitutes the logical basis ofcomparison in other contexts.Data on electoral systems and the ten explanatory variables is collected from avariety of sources. Concerning the dependent variable, the main sources areChronicle of Parliamentary Elections, provided by the Inter-Parliamentary Union,and different volumes in the series of election data handbooks. Since 1967, Inter-Parliamentary Union has annually reported on national legislative elections heldthroughout the world, including descriptions of current electoral systems. TheParline Database [http://www.ipu.org/english/home.htm], i.e. Inter-ParliamentaryUnion on-line, has also been used. A multi-national research team directed byNohlen has recently carried out a systematic and historically completedocumentation of elections and electoral systems in all countries of the world.Elections in Africa (1999) was the first volume in the series called ElectionsWorldwide. Two years later, a two-volume compendium of electoral data for allthe states in Asia and the Pacific was published. The fourth volume, which coverselectoral data on the American continent, has not been used in this study. Data onAmerican countries is mainly based on Handbuch der Wahldaten Lateinamerikasund der Karibik (Nohlen 1993b). The handbooks provide electoral data sinceindependence of each country to the present day. Concerning data on countrieswith mixed electoral systems, Massicotte and Blais’ (1999) article ‘MixedElectoral Systems: A Conceptual and Empirical Survey’ in Electoral Studies hasbeen useful. Sometimes different sources provide different information on electoralsystems. In these cases, I have relied on the volumes in the series of ElectionsWorldwide and the survey by Massicotte and Blais (1999).144
Concerning data on party system fragmentation and party system transformation,the volumes mentioned above have provided a great deal of the relevant data. As toparty system fragmentation, additional sources are The International Almanac ofElectoral History by Thomas Mackie and Richard Rose (1974) and Cross-NationalTime-Series Data Archive [http://www.databanks.sitehosting.net/]. The formerreports election results in 23 established democracies from the late nineteenthcentury onwards, whereas the latter provides data on party system fragmentation(Rae’s measure of fragmentation) in all countries of the world from 1815 to 1995.The estimates at intervals of ten years in Britannica Book of the Year 1999 havebeen used for coding the size variable. Information on population size around 2000has been taken from The World Factbook[http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html]. The following sourceshave been used for determining ethnic and cultural diversity during the period1945-2003: Svensk uppslagsbok (relevant editions 1947-1955), The World inFigures (editions 1981 and 1987), and The World Factbook.Estimation of whether electoral system choices qualify as processes of diffusion ornot is based on statistics in The World in Figures (1981; 1987), Britannica Book ofthe Year (1999), The World Factbook, and the map of the world. Information oncolonial legacy is collected from a number of sources, mainly The WorldFactbook. The above mentioned volumes in the series of Elections Worldwide andChronicle of Parliamentary Elections have provided information on the year ofeach electoral system choice. Data on form of government, territorial organizationand chamber structure, is collected from the following sources: the volumes ofElections Worldwide, The World Factbook, Statsskick: att bygga demokrati(Karvonen 2003), and Political Systems of the World (Derbyshire and Derbyshire1989). Decisions on democratic status are based on ratings in Freedom House[http://www.freedomhouse.org] and the Polyarchy dataset[http://www.svt.ntnu.no/iss/data/vanhanen/]. The volumes of Elections Worldwideand Handbuch der Wahldaten Lateinamerikas und der Karibik (Nohlen 1993b)have provided additional information.145
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Krister LundellContextual Determina
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CONTEXTUAL DETERMINANTS OF ELECTORA
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CIP Cataloguing in PublicationLunde
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at Åbo Akademi University, the Fac
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3.2 Explanations of Electoral Syste
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9. CONCLUSION 2239.1 The Rational P
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politics. Both approaches bear rele
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electoral system choice as an epoch
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1.2 The Importance of Electoral Sys
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Within the range of democratic inst
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will depend on the specific cleavag
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Before describing different voting
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2.1.1 Ballot StructureThe ballot st
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formula, and the variety of elector
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ather be regarded as a characterist
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2.2.1 Plurality Systems2.2.1.1 Sing
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mixture of BV and PBV. In my classi
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Weaver 1984: 198-199). CV implies t
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total election, often pull out of t
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disadvantage is that it presupposes
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parties and minority groups. Furthe
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simultaneously avoiding disproporti
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and Blais. They also agree that the
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Whether one formula applies or not
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difficult. Even an independent comb
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attention to all three main dimensi
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(national, regional and local lists
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The degree of proportionality also
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variables: ethnic and cultural dive
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smallest category, representing 15
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democracies. 12 Nevertheless, the g
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(Vanuatu) are represented by merely
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3. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORKIn this cha
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ecognition of opposing views in the
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systems. If we reformulate the ques
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the rules, the lack of knowledge is
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not. Consequently, their analysis c
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proportional electoral systems. He
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groups as possible, to avoid attemp
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associated with certain features an
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also called electoral engineering.
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(2002: 14). Public opinion, often e
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Similar reform societies were estab
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systematically favor or disfavor ce
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interests based on ascriptive commu
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argues, both majorities and minorit
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A more popular form of recognizing
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Among the three basic majoritarian
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politics. When universal suffrage w
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and no electoral threshold in order
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threatened to change the current el
Page 105 and 106: inadequate since electoral systems
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Page 109 and 110: main advocates of proportional repr
Page 111 and 112: whereas majoritarian systems prevai
Page 113 and 114: The rational learning model sees po
Page 115 and 116: 3.2.4.1 Colonial LegacyColonial leg
Page 117 and 118: Different colonial powers administe
Page 119 and 120: The Australian and American colonia
Page 121 and 122: epresented the “wave of the democ
Page 123 and 124: The second wave of democratization
Page 125 and 126: parliamentary elections, particular
Page 127 and 128: parliamentary or presidential gover
Page 129 and 130: measure of ethnic and cultural dive
Page 131 and 132: medium size. The other 40 per cent
Page 133 and 134: size and electoral systems, two str
Page 135 and 136: that have previously held general e
Page 137 and 138: The association between party syste
Page 139 and 140: democratization process. Neverthele
Page 141 and 142: The occurrence of list PR in former
Page 143 and 144: Third, an electoral system must exi
Page 145 and 146: Three matters are of interest in co
Page 147 and 148: according to Lijphart’s definitio
Page 149 and 150: 3.3.3.2 Territorial OrganizationA n
Page 151 and 152: to the whole territory. Countries a
Page 153 and 154: or non-existence of an ‘additiona
Page 155: subset of the world’s countries,
Page 159 and 160: 22). 30 Nevertheless, the coded yea
Page 161 and 162: (1) free and fair elections of the
Page 163 and 164: (e.g. 1984; 1990). The index is bas
Page 165 and 166: standards and Mauritius was democra
Page 167 and 168: Table 5.1. Ethnic and cultural frag
Page 169 and 170: Table 5.4. Ethnic and cultural frag
Page 171 and 172: values. Each integer of the logarit
Page 173 and 174: is also quite large, and therefore
Page 175 and 176: 1966, and Cyprus 1981. Suriname ado
Page 177 and 178: significant. 36 The large standard
Page 179 and 180: small standard deviation values ind
Page 181 and 182: samples with changes to mixed syste
Page 183 and 184: a consequence of the party system t
Page 185 and 186: eplace plurality systems with mixed
Page 187 and 188: former British colonies did not inh
Page 189 and 190: Table 6.2. Colonial legacy and elec
Page 191 and 192: impact on the dependent variable wh
Page 193 and 194: (1993). All these countries adopted
Page 195 and 196: On the basis of figure 2.1 in secti
Page 197 and 198: their electoral systems. Bulgaria a
Page 199 and 200: as a general determinant of institu
Page 201 and 202: The average population size among c
Page 203 and 204: Only two federal states chose elect
Page 205 and 206: any major role. Regional diffusion,
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Plurality systems dominate the thir
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inherit the plurality system but al
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popular system between 1945 and 199
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presidential countries. Only Lebano
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legislative bodies are distinguishe
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legislative relations should also t
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etween independent and dependent va
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least 90 cases. Notwithstanding, as
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Table 8.1. Patterns of diffusion an
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other systems returns little to exp
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extent but the coefficient is small
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territorial organization and chambe
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there are only two (Gabon and Vanua
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the rational perspective, since it
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9. CONCLUSIONThis study is a contri
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shows that countries having adopted
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doubt that electoral systems affect
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The third variable within the cultu
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9.4 Final RemarksThe impact of the
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APPENDIX IClassification of countri
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Sri Lanka - SMP 1948The Constitutio
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Laos - SMP-BV 1953Laos achieved ful
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Greece - List PR 1958After having a
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Madagascar - Super-mixed 1960The 19
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Iran - SMP-BV 1963In 1963, Iran ado
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Polyarchy dataset between 1960 and
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Morocco - SMP 1970The 1970 Constitu
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APPENDIX IICountry (year of elector
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Country Democracy Electoral system
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Country Democracy Electoral system
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APPENDIX IIICountry (year of electo
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Country Colonial Regional Form of T
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Country Colonial Regional Form of T
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APPENDIX IVParty system fragmentati
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Proportional systems - change from
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REFERENCESAhmed, Nizam. 2001. “Ba
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Blais, André and R. K. Carty. 1987
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Duverger, Maurice. 1984. “Which I
Page 283 and 284:
Hartmann, Christof. 1999b. “Cote
Page 285 and 286:
Koch, Christian. 2001. “Kuwait”
Page 287 and 288:
Lijphart, Arend. 2002. “The Wave
Page 289 and 290:
Norris, Pippa. 1995. “Introductio
Page 291 and 292:
Riker, William H. 1982. “The Two-
Page 293 and 294:
Taagepera, Rein and Matthew S. Shug
Page 295:
Why have countries in different par
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