Eurasian Integration Yearbook 2012

Johannes F. Linn. “Central Asian Regional Integrationand Cooperation: Reality or Mirage?”The Economics of the Post-Sovietand Eurasian Integrationregional institutions devoted to vocational training (in Tajikistan) and disastermanagement (in Kazakhstan) (RECCA, 2012).Another development involving Afghanistan, and of regional significance forCentral Asia, is the Northern Distribution Network (NDN). Set up in 2009 tofacilitate transport of non-lethal supplies for NATO from the Baltics throughRussia and Central Asia as an alternative to the increasingly unreliable supplylines through Pakistan, the use of this transit route intensified with the “surge”of NATO presence in Afghanistan in 2010 and was especially important asPakistan closed its border to NATO transit in 2011 and into 2012. While facingmany obstacles and continuing challenges in managing the extended and costlytransport lines 20 , NDN has demonstrated that the transcontinental transportroutes involving rail and roads from Europe to Central and South Asia are viablealternatives to the traditional sea routes (Kuchins and Sanderson, 2010) 21 . As theNATO military engagement in Central Asia winds down in the run-up to 2014,it is expected that NDN will also serve to support the removal of equipmentfrom Afghanistan (Tynan, 2011).In sum, the focus on Afghanistan as a key connecting hub in Eurasia and theneed to stabilise its economic and political development has served to place alot more attention on the broader neighbourhood in which it lies, and especiallyon Central Asia. Moreover, for Central Asia a stable, prosperous Afghanistan iscritical, not only to avoid the disruptions that could once again emanate froma conflict-ridden neighbour (refugees, terrorism, drugs, etc.), but also to gainaccess to Central Asia, to the dynamic economies of South Asia and as theshortest and cheapest way to connect to sea ports and hence to world markets.Unfortunately, the prospects for turning around Afghanistan on a lasting basisare at this time at best uncertain, and so it is not clear if Afghanistan in future isa plus or minus for the longer term development and integration of Central Asiainto the world economy.Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation program 22In 2011 CAREC celebrated its 10 th anniversary of existence as a regional forumfor Central Asia. It emerged from a regional initiative for Central Asia startedby the Asian Development Bank in the late 1990s. The first of the annualministerial conferences of CAREC convened in 2002 23 . It set in motion a20Critics have charged that NDN has supported authoritarian regimes, reinforced local corruption at borders, and failed toencourage local private enterprise (Cooley, 2012b).21However, according to Pentagon data, the cost of shipping a container on NDN remains substantially higher than thealternative route through Pakistan ($17,500 compared to $7,200 per container) (Tynan, 2012).22The author served as Special Adviser to CAREC from 2006-2010. This section is informed by his observations gathered inthat capacity. For official documentation on CAREC see http://www.carecprogram.org/ (last accessed on July 20, 2012).23The 2002 Ministerial Conference brought together five member countries (China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan andUzbekistan). Azerbaijan and Mongolia joined in 2003, Afghanistan in 2005, and Pakistan and Turkmenistan in 2010. Inaddition, six multilateral institutions are members of CAREC: ADB, EBRD, IsDB, UNDP, and WB.Eurasian Development Bank107