Eurasian Integration Yearbook 2012

Customs Unionand the Single Economic Spacecommon market. This makes it possible to secure financial resources for makingthe necessary capital investments and modernisation, which will help to furtherexpand trade in the global market.Over the period of 2011-2030, the maximum cumulative positive effect ofintegration on the Ukrainian economy is estimated at $219 billion in 2010prices.In assessing the significance of integration effects on the structure of theUkrainian economy it appears that the scenario featuring the fullest utilisationof the integration opportunities offered by the SES provides for a markeddiversification of the economy. The share of mechanical engineering in theaggregate gross output is expected to reach 7.7% by the end of the forecastperiod. The shares of metallurgy and agriculture are expected to dip slightly.Overall, it is expected that the structure of the Ukrainian economy will becomeincreasingly balanced.2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Agriculture 8.1 8.1 7.9 7.6 7.4Mining 5.8 5.2 4.3 4 3.7Food processing (including beverages and tobacco) 9.5 10 10.4 10.4 10.5Textiles and garment manufacturing (including leather manufacturing) 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2Forestry, timber and pulp-and-paper 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9Coke and petroleum products 4.2 2.6 1.3 0.7 0.3Chemical production 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.1Production of other non-metal mineral products 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.4Metallurgy 9.2 8.9 8.5 8.4 8.3Mechanical engineering 5.9 6.6 7 7.5 7.7Electric power 4.9 4.3 3.9 3.5 3.1Construction 3.5 4.6 5.8 6.7 7.1Transport and communications 9 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.5Commerce 10.5 10.7 10.8 10.9 11Services 20.6 20.6 20.8 20.7 20.6Total 100% 100% 100% 100.1% 100%Table 1.12.Sectoral breakdownof the Ukrainianeconomy,in constant prices(technologicalconvergencescenario,%)Source: Calculationsby IEF RASOver the period of 2011-2030, the ultimate effect of the creation of the SES andUkraine joining it can be assessed for the four countries at $1.1 trillion in 2010prices (see Figure 1.6).By the end of the forecast period, the integration of the SES countries wouldensure a gain in the four countries’ aggregate GDP of up to 2.8% over thebaseline option (see Figure 1.7).38 EDB Eurasian Integration Yearbook 2012