Eurasian Integration Yearbook 2012

Customs Unionand the Single Economic Space9080706050Figure 1.3.Effects of SEScreation on Russiab) Additionalincrease in RussianGDP under theSES-formation option(2010, $ billion)4030201002011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029Exports to the SESGDPThe development of integration ties will allow Russia to reap an additionalannual gain of more than 2% of the baseline GDP by the end of the forecastperiod.The three countries’ cumulative gain from the formation of the SES, comparedto the non-integration scenario, is shown in Figure 1.4. As for the aggregateGDP of the SES countries, the difference between the options is expectedto exceed 2.5% by 2030. In 2030, the GDP gain over the baseline optionis expected to reach $75 billion for Russia (in 2010 prices), $13 billion forKazakhstan, and $14 billion for Belarus. From 2011 to 2030, the cumulativeeffect of the development of integration ties can be estimated at $632 billion(in 2010 prices) for Russia, $106.6 billion for Kazakhstan, and $170 billion forBelarus.Figure 1.4.2.5Integral effect of SEScreation on Russia,2Kazakhstanand Belarus1.5(additional increasein the three1countries’ aggregateGDP over the0.5baseline scenario,% of GDP) 0%32011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 202926 EDB Eurasian Integration Yearbook 2012