Eurasian Integration Yearbook 2012

Igor V. Zadorin. “Monitoring social moods in the post-Soviet space:EDB Integration Barometer”The Economics of the Post-Sovietand Eurasian IntegrationBased on the questions listed, two types of indexes were calculated:• Indexes of attraction to a geopolitical cluster – to the former Soviet Union,European Union or other countries. These were calculated as the numberof answers that mentioned at least one country of the cluster, taken as anaverage across all questions and expressed as a ratio to the total remaininganswers (including the answer “None”). The index could range between 0and 1 (theoretically); in fact, the actual range of the values was [0.3; 0.7].• Indexes of mutual attraction – these are the indexes of mutual attractionbetween each dyad of countries, evident in reciprocal choice of answers.For example: if Ukrainians mentioned Belarus in 12% of their answers, andBelarusians mentioned Ukraine in 34% of the answers, then the proportionof reciprocal choice in this case is 12%. Thus, this indicator is cleared of theinevitable asymmetry in terms of attraction of non-equilibrium countries.Since the base for calculating the indexes contains at least two questions fromeach category (economy, politics, socio-cultural links), it is possible to calculatenot only general indexes from the data as a whole, but from individual datatoo, to determine the degree of the countries’ affinity in the separate spheres ofeconomy, politics and socio-culture. Both the individual indexes of affinity witha cluster of countries and the dyad indexes of mutual attraction were calculatedfor each sphere.The basic regularities found out following the results of analysis of consolidatedindexes of attraction to the geopolitical clusters are given below.• In the political sphere, for almost all countries participating in the EDBIntegration Barometer project, the highest-priority integration area is thepost-Soviet space. The only exception is Georgia, which is oriented towardsthe US (“Other countries” cluster).• In the economic sphere, an orientation towards the European Union istypical for six countries – Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Russia andUkraine. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are attracted to the post-Soviet space instead, and the “Other countries” cluster is the priority for thepopulation of Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan.• Almost the same patterns as for the economic sphere are typical forthe sphere of socio-cultural links. The only difference is the position ofTajikistan, which in this case has the higher-priority attraction not to thepost-Soviet space but to the rest of the world. However, the populationof Tajikistan seems to be more oriented towards the post-Soviet space (inparticular, Russia) than the population of other countries with regard to allquestions on the survey form (including those not used in calculating thesummarising indexes).• For the aggregate of the three factors – economy, politics and culture– most countries participating in the project place the highest priority onintegration within the post-Soviet space.Eurasian Development Bank155