Eurasian Integration Yearbook 2012

Customs Unionand the Single Economic Spacecoal in Ukraine’s energy balance, the energy intensity of production is reducedand domestic production grows to 30 billion m 3 . Oil imports are forecasted toincrease by 50% on 2010 to 23 million tonnes (see Table 1.3). The country’shigher dependence on energy imports is expected to boost growth in capitalinvestments aimed at the modernisation of production facilities and at reducingenergy intensity.2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Oil (million tonnes)Production 4 5 5 5 5Import 8 9 9 10 10Share of imports in domestic consumption 64.7% 66.3% 65.5% 67.6% 67.9%Gas (billion m 3 )Production 20 26 28 29 30Import 37 37 38 39 43Share of imports in domestic consumption 65.2% 59.2% 57.3% 57.4% 58.9%Coal and peat (million tonnes)Production 56 62 68 75 82Table 1.3.Production andimport of energyresources in Ukraine(baseline scenario)Source: Calculationsby IEF RAS and IEFNASUImport 12 15 18 20 21Share of imports in domestic consumption 17.8% 19.3% 21% 21.4% 20.7%Electric power (billion kWh)Production 193 220 245 264 276Import 2 2 2 2 2Share of imports in domestic consumption 1.1% 1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8%Traditional exporting industries continue to account for a high share in theUkrainian economy. The baseline scenario is premised on rather high rates ofagricultural growth (up to 4-5% a year), which is expected to make agricultureto account for approximately 7.4% of the Ukrainian gross output by the endof the forecast period. The shares of metallurgy and chemical production alsoremain high.To assess the impact of intercountry trade on economic development, estimateswere generated for a number of scenarios that differ in terms they envision forUkrainian integration with the SES countries.The first scenario envisions Ukraine joining the CIS Free Trade Area (CISFTA) in 2012, with exceptions (preservation of trade barriers with respect toagricultural products, the fuel and energy sector and metallurgy). According toestimates, this course of events is not expected to have a significant effect onthe economies of Russia and Kazakhstan, since the bulk of trade between the28 EDB Eurasian Integration Yearbook 2012