Eurasian Integration Yearbook 2012

Viktor Ivanter, Valery Geets, Vladimir Yasinskiy, Alexander Shirov,and Andrey Anisimov. “The Economic Effects of the Creationof the Single Economic Space and Potential Accession of Ukraine”Customs Unionand the Single Economic Space141210864202011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029Figure 1.2.Effects of SEScreationon Kazakhstanb) Additionalincrease inKazakhstan’s GDPunder theSES-formation option(2010, $ billion)Exports to the SESGDPThe share of mining sectors and metallurgy in the Kazakh economy willgradually decline. A rapid growth in the service sector, mechanical engineering,transportation and communications will result in the growth of their respectiveshares in gross output.As the scale of the Russian economy cannot be compared with those of otherSES countries, integration processes in the post-Soviet area are not expected toproduce a determining impact on the dynamics of Russian GDP. In addition, thegradual devaluation of the Belarusian rouble, against the backdrop of increasingenergy prices, will have an additional adverse effect on the trade and economicrelationships within the SES (first and foremost, on the trade between Russiaand Belarus).43.532.521.510.502011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029Figure 1.3.Effects of SEScreation on Russiaa) Russian GDP andexports to the SES, inconstant 2010 prices($ trillion)Exports to the SESGDPEurasian Development Bank25