Eurasian Integration Yearbook 2012

The Economics of the Post-Sovietand Eurasian IntegrationIf this happens, the crisis will have a considerable impact on the globaleconomy.d. Growing energy and food pricesWe have described the factors that can lead to a decline in prices of the CISexports or hinder access for banks and companies from these countries to globalfinance. There is another threat however: because of the recovery of the world’sleading economies, the soft monetary policies pursued by central banks, andthe limited opportunities to boost production of the majority of energy and foodcommodities, energy and food prices could begin to grow in an unexpectedlyquick fashion. In such an event, the situation will develop similarly to 2010,when energy and food prices also grew.300250200Figure 7.3.Food and oil priceindexes (2005=100)Source: InternationalFinancial Statistics150100500January, 2000September, 2000May, 2001January, 2002September, 2002May, 2003January, 2004September, 2004May, 2005January, 2006September, 2006May, 2007January, 2008September, 2008May, 2009January, 2010September, 2010May, 2011January, 2012FoodstuffsOil (various brands)The CIS countries can very conventionally be divided into three groups thatdiffer in terms of the condition of, and sources of finance for, their balances ofpayments and, accordingly, sources of tax revenues. These differences determinethe channels for external negative effects on the economies in a certain groupand, accordingly, the reaction of these economies to the development of theglobal situation and measures necessary to mitigate these effects. The followinggroups can be formed using these factors:Group 1. Energy exporters (Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan)have a significant export to GDP ratio, a positive balance of trade and a currentaccount surplus. The share of raw materials exports in budget revenues is high.These countries have financial reserves which were accumulated during thefavourable part of the 2000s, which however reduced considerably during122 EDB Eurasian Integration Yearbook 2012