Eurasian Integration Yearbook 2012

Customs Unionand the Single Economic Spacetwo countries and Ukraine is in the sectors where the levels of trade barriersremain virtually constant. Belarus’ exports and its GDP are expected to growinsignificantly. The most significant gain is forecasted for Ukraine’s production,with GDP outpacing the baseline option by an average of 0.5%.Thus, an unequivocal conclusion is that if Ukraine joins the CIS FTA withexceptions across a number of key sectors this is not expected to have asignificant effect on trade and economic relationships in the post-Soviet area.In essence, this option could be deemed the preservation of its status quo withan insignificant positive effect from lifting certain barriers to trade with the CIScountries.Russia 2015 2020 2025 2030Export 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.05Import 0 0 0 0.01GDP 0 0.01 0.01 0.01Kazakhstan 2015 2020 2025 2030Table 1.6.Change in keymacroeconomicindicators comparedto the baselineoption(scenario envisioningUkraine joining theSES; only effects ofimprovements intrade with the SEScountries;% of baselinevolumetric indicators)Source: Calculationsby IEF RASExport 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05Import 0.03 0.02 0.04 0.03GDP 0 0 0.01 0.01Belarus 2015 2020 2025 2030Export 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04Import 0 0.06 0.06 0.06GDP 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02Ukraine 2015 2020 2025 2030Export 4.15 3.66 3.14 2.68Import 0.16 0.16 0.2 0.26GDP 1.15 0.99 0.85 0.73In the scenario that envisions Ukraine joining the Single Economic Space withoutexceptions, the GDP gains for Russia and Kazakhstan are expected to be moreappreciable than those under the scenario envisioning the creation of the CISFTA. In this scenario, Belarusian GDP is expected to remain almost unchangedcompared to the scenario envisioning Ukraine’s partial joining the SES. ForUkraine itself, the impact on GDP is expected to increase by approximately50% compared to the previous scenario because of price reductions, lowerproduction costs and increased exports of metallurgical and agricultural products(see Table 1.6).Another option was considered as a scenario in which Ukraine, instead ofjoining the Single Economic Space, creates a free trade area with the European30 EDB Eurasian Integration Yearbook 2012