Eurasian Integration Yearbook 2012

Viktor Ivanter, Valery Geets, Vladimir Yasinskiy, Alexander Shirov,and Andrey Anisimov. “The Economic Effects of the Creationof the Single Economic Space and Potential Accession of Ukraine”Customs Unionand the Single Economic Spaceclimb to 1.2%. Over the period of 2011–2030, the total positive effectof this integration option on the Ukrainian economy is estimated at $219billion in 2010 prices.8. One of the key challenges of integration is the development of a uniformcurrency and financial policy for the SES countries. According to estimates,if the SES countries continue their non-coordinated currency policiesthis can significantly weaken the positive effects of integration. At thesame time, the harmonisation of exchange rates can create significantproblems for the SES countries that are dependent on the import of energycommodities (particularly when prices rise). Alternatively, mechanisms canbe envisioned for the transfer of capital flows within the SES countries inorder to minimise distortions in the balance of trade and payments. If thesemechanisms are created the harmonisation of exchange rates would be themost advantageous scenario for further intensification of integration in thepost-Soviet area.9. Over the period of 2011-2030, the total cumulative effect of the creationof the SES and Ukraine joining it on the four countries can reach $1.1trillion in 2010 prices. Broken down by countries, this effect is expectedto approximate 14% of Belarusian GDP, 6% of Ukrainian GDP, 3.5% ofKazakh GDP, and 2% of Russian GDP. Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstanare expected to benefit from integration to the greatest extent in terms ofper capita effects while Russia is expected to benefit from it to the greatestextent in absolute terms.Eurasian Development Bank41