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List of Abstracts 63will be compared to those reported in IPCC AR4 and from previous intercomparisons (e.g. ACCENT,HTAP).P-Chemistry Climate.9 ID:4337 15:35Potential climate feedbacks involving the methane cycleFiona O'Connor, Bill CollinsMet Office Hadley CentreContact: fiona.oconnor@metoffice.gov.ukNatural emissions of methane may increase in a warmer climate due to potential feedbacks in the EarthSystem related to wetlands, permafrost, and marine hydrates. As a result, atmospheric methaneconcentrations could continue to rise over the next century despite efforts to reduce anthropogenicemissions.In this study, the atmospheric response to methane pulse emissions is investigated and the sensitivity of theresponse to the size, location, and season of release is also explored. A particular focus of the atmosphericresponse is on methane itself, methane lifetime, tropospheric ozone, stratospheric water vapor, radiativeforcing, and the 100-year global warming potential. The impact of methane emissions on the direct andindirect effects of sulfate and nitrate aerosol is also examined.On the basis of these experiments, the forcing resulting from a potential methane release from wetlandsand/or permafrost is estimated for a range of climate change scenarios.P-Chemistry Climate.10 ID:4404 15:35Does the location of aircraft nitrogen oxide emissions affect their climate impact?David Stevenson 1 , Dick Derwent 21 University of Edinburgh2 rdscientificContact: dstevens@staffmail.ed.ac.ukWe present results from 112 one-year global chemistry-transport model integrations: a base case, thenvariants with extra aircraft nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions added to specific regions in the first month(July). The NOx stimulates ozone (O3) production and methane (CH4) destruction. Responses varyspatially: low background NOx regions are most sensitive. Integrated (100-year time horizon) radiativeforcings (IRF) are calculated. Net (O3 + CH4) IRFs for July aviation NOx are generally negative: the globalaverage, weighted by emissions, is -1.9 mW m-2 yr(Tg NO2)-1. The positive IRF associated with the shorttermO3 increase (4.1 mW m-2 yr(Tg NO2)-1) is overwhelmed by the effects of the long-term CH4decrease. Aircraft NOx net IRFs are spatially variable, with July values over the remote Pacificapproximately balancing the IRF associated with aviation CO2 emissions (28 mW m-2 yr(Tg NO2)-1). Theoverall climate impact of global aviation is often represented by a simple multiplier for CO2 emissions.These results show that this is inappropriate.P-Chemistry Climate.11 ID:4228 15:35A Reassessment of the net climate impact of aviationNadine UngerNASA GISS / Columbia UniversityiCACGP-IGAC 2010 12 July, 2010
List of Abstracts 64Contact: nunger@giss.nasa.govAircraft emissions can affect climate change through increasing CO 2 but also a host of other short-lived non-CO 2 effects that are complex, involve impacts that are both warming and cooling and are unique to thissector. The most important effects involve ozone, sulfate, black carbon (soot), methane, water vapor andindirect impacts on cloudiness. Combined, the non- CO 2 climate impacts outweigh those of CO 2 on shorttimescales (20-30 years). Accounting for non-CO 2 impacts in cross- sector emissions trading schemes iscontroversial, but some have proposed using a simple multiplicative factor between 2 and 4 to be applied toaviation CO 2 emissions. This factor is based on previous assessments of aviation climate impacts by theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and updates. Those assessments have used a segmentedapproach whereby each effect was calculated separately and the effects summed. However, morecomprehensive integrated approaches that represent coupled heterogeneous interactions between gas andaerosol particles in the exhaust and background atmosphere are now possible and give markedly differentresults. Here, application of a fully coupled global chemistry-aerosol-climate model that includes bothtropospheric and stratospheric chemistry leads to a lower ozone radiative forcing and higher direct aerosolradiative forcing from aviation emissions than previously estimated. The new results do not support the useof any multiplicative factor on short timescales in climate policy. The future evolution of the aviationclimate impact is compared to those from a broad range of other key economic sectors over the next century.The climate consequences of future growth in aviation emissions and potential mitigation scenarios areexplored.P-Chemistry Climate.12 ID:4535 15:35Importance of distinct organic aerosol sources on gas-phase chemistry and climateKostas Tsigaridis 1 , Dorothy Koch 1 , Surabi Menon 2 , Apostolos Voulgarakis 1 , Greg Faluvegi 1 , DrewShindell 31 Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies2 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory3 NASA Goddard Institute for Space StudiesContact: ktsigaridis@giss.nasa.govOrganic aerosols, a ubiquitous component of atmospheric particulate matter, are still poorly constrained inglobal models. New sources and production mechanisms have been discovered in the last few years,including primary and secondary sources from the ocean, important new terrestrial secondary organicaerosol precursors, and cloud processing. Most global models to date include few, if any, of these newsources. Although their importance on gas-phase chemistry and climate is expected to be very significant,many models still include very simple organic aerosol calculations, treating both the primary and secondarycomponents as non-volatile. In order to quantify the role organic aerosols play in gas-phase chemistry andclimate, we studied their interactions with solar radiation. Aerosols affect gas-phase chemistry via their lightextinction potential, affecting the photolysis rates of trace gases. As a result, both oxidant levels and thechemical composition of the atmosphere in general are altered, feeding back to secondary organic aerosolproduction. In addition, changes in organic aerosol distribution, both temporal and spatial, affect climate viaaerosol direct and indirect effects. The total impact of organic aerosols on these processes will be studied.The importance of new aerosol sources like their production from isoprene in addition to terpenes, theoceanic source of primary as well as secondary organic aerosol precursors will be evaluated. The calculatedchanges in aerosol distribution and impacts due to the inclusion of semi-volatile secondary organic aerosolswill be examined. The importance of organic aerosols on both direct and indirect effect will be calculated.Organic aerosol distributions will be evaluated against measurements.iCACGP-IGAC 2010 12 July, 2010
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