15 MB - Great Lakes Maritime Research Institute

Demand Forecast. Table 3.4 below shows 2005 to 2015 projected consumption ofhighway diesel and B100 from soybeans and other feedstock. B100 demand is expectedto increase almost nine­fold, rising from 75 million gallons in 2005 to 648 million gallonsby 2015. It is unlikely that the Great Lakes maritime industry will experience theseexplosive growth rates, but this is an indication of the expected acceptance of biodieselfuels.HighwayDieselUse /1(Bil gal)Table 3.4: U.S. Diesel Fuel and Biodiesel ForecastB100Volume(Milgal)BiodieselFromSoybeans(Pct)BiodieselFromSoybeans(Mil gal)BiodieselFrom otherFeedstocks(Mil gal)SoybeanOil Equiv /2(Mil lb)SoybeanEquiv /3(Mil Bu)2005 43.2 75.0 91.5% 68.6 6.4 51 462006 44.4 150.0 90.8% 136.1 13.9 1,021 922007 45.5 172.5 90.0% 15.3 17.3 1,164 1052008 46.4 215.6 89.3% 192.4 23.2 1,443 1302009 47.4 269.5 88.5% 238.5 31.0 1,789 1612010 48.4 323.4 87.8% 283.8 39.6 2,129 1912011 49.4 388.1 87.0% 337.7 50.5 2,533 2272012 50.2 465.8 86.3% 401.7 64.0 3,013 2702013 51.0 535.6 85.5% 457.9 77.7 3,435 3082014 51.6 589.2 84.8% 499.3 89.8 3,745 3362015 52.3 648.1 84.0% 544.4 103.7 4,083 367Source: Forecast prepared by LECG, LLC1. Annual Energy Outlook 2006. High Oil Price Case. Table 2.Converted from btu at 138,690 btu/gal2. Converted using 7.5 lb soybean oil = 1 gal biodiesel3. Assumes 11.1 lbs sbo/bu soybeans3.2.2 SupplyFollowing the data for soybean feedstock supply, we compare the Great Lakes states’ability to supply feedstock for biodiesel production of fuel for maritime commerce. The1996­2006 production level trend for soybean production and prices for the U.S. is shownbelow. In 2006 production topped 3 billion bushels.Table 3.5: U.S. Soybean Production and Price Trends 1996­2006Year Area Production (thousands of bushels) Price($ per bushel)1996 U.S. 2,380,274 $7.351997 U.S. 2,688,750 $6.471998 U.S 2,741,014 $4.931999 U.S 2,653,758 $4.632000 U.S 2,757,810 $4.542001 U.S 2,890,682 $4.382002 U.S 2,756,147 $5.532003 U.S 2,453,665 $7.342004 U.S 3,123,686 $5.742005 U.S 3,086,432 $5.502006 U.S 3,092,970Source: USDA ­ National Agricultural Statistics Service19