Housing Needs Assessment 2006 - Westminster City Council

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Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 2006It is therefore common to find that the BHM shows a slightly higher estimate of the affordablerequirement than the BNAM but this should not be taken as the survey’s base estimate of theabsolute requirement for affordable housing (which is measured using the ODPM's Basic NeedsAssessment Model). The BHM is however particularly useful at ascertaining what shortages exist inthe private sector market and can help to guide councils in securing an appropriate mix of markethousing on new housing developments.The inherent idea behind the BHM method is that it seeks to meet the requirements of the currentpopulation first with the amount of in-migration used to ‘balance’ figures to the estimatedhousehold growth of an area.Unlike the specific model followed in Section C, however there is only very general guidanceprovided for a BHM analysis. The next subsection summarises our approach.12.2 Procedure in outlineIn overview, a BHM analysis assesses the aspirations of would-be movers in relation to totaldwellings, broken down by property size and tenure. Growth is constrained by the projected futurebuilding rate for the City of Westminster from the London Plan.The steps involved are listed below:i) Total allocation of new dwellings to the City of Westminsterii) Numbers of households wishing/planning to move (both existing and newly forming)iii) Distinguish those who can afford their proposed moves from those who cannotiv) Those who cannot afford their moves are allocated to affordable housing (in principle) asthey cannot afford to rent or buy at market pricesv) The total of market and non-market moves is assessed in relation to the net extra number ofdwellings requiredvi) This is assessed against the allowed total of new dwellings for the City. Where the netdemand is greater than the total, this is noted, by tenure groupvii) Where the total net demand is less than the allowed total new build, then the difference isassumed to be net in-migration, often of market purchasersviii) All figures are calculated on an annual basis from figures over a two year periodPAGE 112
12. Balancing housing markets12.3 Why gross flows cannot predict tenureThe ODPM Guide suggests a Gross Flow approach, which bases forecasts on past patterns, in orderto carry out a BHM. However, given that market dynamics and socio-economic factors are alwayschanging, past patterns are actually fairly limited as a predictor. Past (or even projected future)changes in the proportions of dwelling types and tenure groups are not indicative of what shouldhappen in order to best meet housing requirements in the future. In the jargon, such data has no‘normative’ value: it contains no element of judgement. This was noted by Fordham Research aslong ago as 1993:‘future variation in proportions of owner-occupiers, private renters etc should beconsidered as variables on which policy is to operate in seeking to meet housing need. Inthis sense it is not appropriate to use them as fixed variables’ (Wycombe Housing NeedsSurvey, Fordham Research 1993)Examples of why unadjusted gross flows are not a satisfactory predictor are easy to cite:i) If in a local authority area over a period of time (say a year) nothing but four bedroomowner-occupied dwellings are built then the gross flows methodology would show thatnothing but four bedroom owner-occupied homes are required in the future (even if there isa significant need for additional affordable housing).ii) On the other hand another local authority may have needed (and been able) to build asignificant number of additional affordable units, the gross flows approach would indicatethat the Local Authority still required large numbers of affordable housing units (whichmight not be the case).12.4 Adapted Gross Flows (AGF)The Fordham approach, therefore, adapts the notion of balance inherent in Gross Flows to takeaccount of future housing aspirations and affordability as well as past trends. This revised approachhas the advantage of not simply mirroring the past and also helps to avoid any ‘unbalancing’ actionswhich may have been at work.At the most general level:• Demands minus the supply should give a net change (increase usually) in number ofdwellings/householdsPAGE 113
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CITY OF WESTMINSTER2006 HOUSING NEE
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First Surveys MarketResearch13 Darw
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A12. Where do you and your partner
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D SPECIAL NEEDSD1. Do you or any of
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edroom(s)F5. How many bedrooms woul
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a) b)Like ExpectDetached house.....
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