Housing Needs Assessment 2006 - Westminster City Council

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Westminster – Housing Needs Assessment 20069.5 Shared ownership supplyIn most local authorities the amount of shared ownership available in the stock is fairly limited (asis the case in the City of Westminster). However, it is still important to consider to what extent thecurrent supply may be able to help those in need of affordable housing.Therefore we include an estimate of the number of shared ownership units that become availableeach year. Information from the Housing Corporation suggests that there are around 494 sharedownership units in the City; the Census estimated the figure to be 659, Council informationsuggests 715, whilst the housing needs assessment data estimates 172. The average of these fourfigures is 510. For the purposes of this analysis it is assumed that the turnover of shared ownershipaccommodation is roughly the same as found in the social rented sector. This is estimated at 3.1%.Hence we estimate that each year an average of 16 units of shared ownership tenure will becomeavailable to meet housing needs (3.1% × 510). Therefore, the estimate of supply becomes 789 perannum (773+16).9.6 Vacant dwellingsAs of April 2005, there were 412 vacant dwellings in the social rented stock, representing around1.6% of all social rented stock in the City. This is considered to be an average vacancy rate andhence no adjustment needs to be made to the figures to take account of this.ODPMGuide‘The change in vacancies is a key factor in the net stock approach. The generalprinciple is that there should be a target vacancy rate to allow normal movement inthe housing stock. Typical recommended allowances would be 4 per cent for theprivate sector with 2 per cent being more appropriate for the social sector’. [Section2.5 (page 28)]9.7 Changes in the supply of affordable housingThis covers stages 15 and 16 of the ‘Basic Needs Assessment Model’. Stage 15 is ‘minus increasedvacancies & units taken out of management’; Stage 16 is ‘plus committed units of new affordablesupply’.In the case of Stage 15, it would not be sensible to remove from the supply equation the number ofproperties taken out of management. It is much more sensible to estimate the likely reduction inrelets as a result of such losses.PAGE 88
9. Supply of affordable housingIn the case of Stage 16 it seems more logical to exclude committed units as the purpose of theanalysis is to show a surplus or shortfall of affordable housing. Including committed units might insome cases show a surplus of affordable housing where in fact the new housing is required toprevent a shortfall. However, we must remember that new affordable housing will in time produceadditional relets (in the same way as relet opportunities are lost when dwellings are ‘taken out ofmanagement’).Data contained in HSSA returns suggests that from April 2003 to April 2005 there has been a netdecrease of 959 properties from the City of Westminster’s social housing stock (480 per annum).Given an average turnover of around 3.1% this would equate to a net decrease of around 15 lettingopportunities per annum. Hence, on the basis of this information it is estimated that average futuresupply of affordable housing will be 774 units per annum (789-15).9.8 SummaryThe table below details the stages in arriving at an estimate of the 774 relets from the current stockof affordable housing per annum. Analysis of HSSA and CORE data (excluding transfers within thesocial rented stock) for 2004/2005 indicates an average supply of lettings of 939 per year. Takingaccount of lettings made to new dwellings the supply estimate is reduced by 166 units per annum. Itis assumed that there would be no additional lettings from the vacant stock, whilst units taken out ofmanagement and committed units of new affordable supply will lead to a net decrease of 15dwellings per annum. Finally, we have included 16 ‘relets’ from shared ownership dwellings, whichincreases supply to a total of 774. The second table shows how this fits into the Basic NeedsAssessment model.Element of supplyTable 9.4 Estimated future supply of affordable housing (per annum)Number of unitsAverage lettings per annum (excluding transfers) 939Lettings in new housing -166‘Relets’ of shared ownership +16Additional lettings in vacant stock +0Letting opportunities lost through units taken out of management (Stage 15)Letting opportunities gained through additional stock (Stage 16)-15ESTIMATED SUPPLY OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING (PER ANNUM) 774Source: City of Westminster Housing Needs Survey 2006PAGE 89
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First Surveys MarketResearch13 Darw
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A12. Where do you and your partner
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D SPECIAL NEEDSD1. Do you or any of
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edroom(s)F5. How many bedrooms woul
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a) b)Like ExpectDetached house.....
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Housing Needs Assessment 2006 - Westminster City Council

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