Economic Report of the President 1994 - The American Presidency ...

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Chart 3-4 Long-Term Unemployment as Share of TotaS UnemploymentThe share of the unemployed who have been out of work 27 weeks or more approachedhistorical highs in the last downturn.1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993Note: Quarterly data.Source: Department of Labor.Chart 3-5 Long-Term Unemployment and the Unemployment RateThe share of long-term unemployment in total unemployment has been high recently,given the unemployment rate.Long-term unemployed (percent)25• 1983s^15 -10 -5 -^D• 1970•••1993 ^1992D1984• s^• 1961 s^59 ry' meDiP^P ••••rjn• 1949D1980• 1982ISource: Department of Labor.I6 8Unemployment Rate (percent)II10 12106
Chart 3-6 Employment-to-Population Ratios of WomenThe employment rate of black women fell below that of white women in thelast recession.Percent6050Black Women4540 rWhite Women35 J L1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987Note: Quarterly data.Source: Department of Labor.agers was nearly three times as high at 19 percent. Teenage unemploymentrates were 17.6 percent and 14.6 percent for white malesand females, respectively. The unemployment rates for black teenageworkers were more than twice as high at 40.1 percent formales and 37.5 percent for females. Over the last 20 years, theteenage unemployment rate rose along with the overall unemploymentrate. Unemployment rates also differ by education. Chart 3-7 compares the unemployment rates of those without a high schooldiploma, high school graduates, those with some college, collegegraduates, and those with advanced degrees.According to popular accounts, another distinguishing feature ofrecent labor market developments is the "white-collar recession."That expression implies that the recent unemployment experienceof white-collar workers relative to that of blue-collar workers hasbeen significantly worse than in past recessions.In fact, as in the past, the unemployment rate among white-collarworkers has been significantly below that of blue-collar workersin the most recent recession and recovery (3.2 percent versus 9.9percent in 1992). However, the white-collar unemployment rate relativeto the blue-collar rate has been rising (Chart 3-8). The ratio107
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unitedminds
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Economic Report of the PresidentTo
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the Technology Reinvestment Project
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formed health care system, increase
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CONTENTSPageCHAPTER 1. A STRATEGY F
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PageProviding Comprehensive Benefit
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LIST OF CHARTS—CONTINUEDPage3-5 L
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CHAPTER 1A Strategy for Growth and
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which have left consumers and busin
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that growth in both real compensati
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for inflation was on average roughl
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Box 1-2.—Saving, Investment, and
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investments in human capital; inves
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of the income distribution (Table 1
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Box 1-3.—Credible Deficit Reducti
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Chart 1-7 Correlation of Investment
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Box 1~4*~-A Balanced Budget Amendme
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This educational record is not good
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fallen markedly since the 1960s (Ch
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The development and deployment of n
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Earlier rounds of GATT talks had fo
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Chart 1-10 Projected Real Growth Ra
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are therefore on the public dole. M
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prise communities and be granted sm
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Page 64 and 65: Chart 2-2 National Defense Purchase
Page 66 and 67: Chart 2-3 Growth of U.S. Merchandis
Page 68 and 69: Chart 2-5 Households: Credit Market
Page 70 and 71: THE HEADWINDS ARE MOSTLY CALMINGAs
Page 72 and 73: 1993, real consumer spending increa
Page 74 and 75: RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENTResidential i
Page 76 and 77: smallest annual increase in 20 year
Page 78 and 79: ments with the Internal Revenue Ser
Page 80 and 81: safe-harbor rules for underpayment
Page 82 and 83: Chart 2-9 Alternative Measures of t
Page 84 and 85: Meanwhile, the Mountain States were
Page 86 and 87: inflation is measured by the Blue C
Page 88 and 89: Saving, Investment, and Capital Acc
Page 90 and 91: the future should be reflected in l
Page 92 and 93: Chart 2-15 Dynamic Effects of Defic
Page 94 and 95: joyed healthy average real GDP grow
Page 96 and 97: Chart 2-16 Personal Income Taxes as
Page 98 and 99: TABLE 2-2.— Administration Foreca
Page 100 and 101: TABLE 2-3.— Accounting for Growth
Page 103 and 104: CHAPTER 3Trends and Recent Developm
Page 105 and 106: first quarter of 1991, nonfarm payr
Page 107 and 108: cause defense cutbacks have caused
Page 109 and 110: UNEMPLOYMENT AND NONEMPLOYMENTThe U
Page 111: Chart 3-3 Civilian Unemployment Rat
Page 115 and 116: Chart 3-8 Ratio of White-Collar to
Page 117 and 118: than would be expected given its hi
Page 119 and 120: that the natural rate is falling? M
Page 121 and 122: SLOW INCOME GROWTHIncome trends hav
Page 123 and 124: Chart 3-10 Average Annual Growth of
Page 125 and 126: Box 3-3.—Consequences of Producti
Page 127 and 128: likely that immigration could expla
Page 129 and 130: We do, however, know how many worke
Page 131 and 132: size. No data are available on vola
Page 133 and 134: BENEFITSOne of the concerns raised
Page 135 and 136: edented partnership to develop a nu
Page 137 and 138: CHAPTER 4Health Care ReformTHE UNIT
Page 139 and 140: make cost-conscious decisions. In a
Page 141 and 142: A third rationale for universal cov
Page 143 and 144: Box 4-1.—Moral Hazard and Adverse
Page 145 and 146: ies depending on one's health statu
Page 147 and 148: than people in other countries do,
Page 149 and 150: sumers are ill equipped to bring st
Page 151 and 152: By itself, the aging of the populat
Page 153 and 154: TABLE 4-3.- Sources and Uses of Hea
Page 155 and 156: about 65 to 70 cents for a typical
Page 157 and 158: THE ARCHITECTURE OF THE HEALTHSECUR
Page 159 and 160: etary savings for the Federal Gover
Page 161 and 162: contribution, within limits. Outsid
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salary income, payments from the em
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TABLE 4-6.—Caps on Premiums by Fi
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An example will illustrate the proc
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TABLE 4-9.—Sources and Uses of Fe
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Chart 4-9 Business Spending on Heal
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Health care reform should set the s
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and private sectors, addressing env
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Box 5-1.—Selected National Perfor
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Box 5-2*—Market PowerFirms are sa
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ate regulation. For example, State
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competitiveness of U.S. industry, a
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Box 5-4.—ExternalitiesAn external
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in the habitat of the spotted owl r
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CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLANCertain g
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eral, lays a foundation for broader
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The Administration's proposal seeks
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vances in technical know-how have a
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Investments in R&D are risky. Like
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1950s and 1960s, and American compa
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ico and Lawrence Livermore in Calif
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of industry. MOCs will be affiliate
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tiveness. Again, the hoped-for resu
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forts to cut the massive Federal bu
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TECHNOLOGY POLICY, GROWTH, ANDCOMPE
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mitment to an open international tr
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ses, which take such intersectoral
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An important sectoral development i
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TABLE 6-3.—Stock of U.S. Outward
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technical change has been offered a
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ent account is a broader measure of
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TABLE 6-6.—Intrafirm Trade as Sha
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greater access to the Japanese mark
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the transparency of its trade regim
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that if the states of the former So
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Box 6-3.—Mexican Economic Reforms
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1998, while nontariff barriers on a
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ward convergence in environmental a
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Box 6-4.—The Asian "Miracle"Per c
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Box 6-5.—The Economic Impact of t
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development, and environmental clea
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THE TRADE POLICY AGENDABy lowering
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ignated monopolies. It also establi
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The dollar ended 1993 roughly where
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Box 6-7.—Exchange-Rate Volatility
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Chart 6-5 French Franc-Deutsche Mar
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Besides bringing these endeavors to
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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
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Report to the President on the Acti
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duction budget package, the North A
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Working Group studying cost-benefit
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prepares the Economic Indicators an
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Appendix BSTATISTICAL TABLES RELATI
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POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, AND
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AGRICULTURE:PageB-96. Farm income,
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NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
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TABLE B-2.—Gross domestic product
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TABLE B-3.—Implicit price deflato
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TABLE B-4.—Fixed-weighted price i
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TABLE B-5.—Changes in gross domes
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TABLE B-7.—Cross domestic product
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TABLE B-9.—Gross domestic product
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TABLE B-ll.—Gross domestic produc
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TABLE B-13.—Gross domestic produc
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TABLE B-15.—Personal consumption
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TABLE B-17.—Gross and net private
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TABLE B-19.—Inventories and final
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TABLE B-21.—Foreign transactions
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TABLE B-23.—Relation of gross dom
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TABLE B-25.—National income by ty
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TABLE B-26.—Sources of personal i
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TABLE B-27.—Disposition of person
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TABLE B-29.—Gross sating and inve
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TABLE B-31.—Median money income (
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TABLE B-33.—Population and the la
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TABLE B-34.—Civilian employment a
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TABLE B-36.—Unemployment by demog
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TABLE B-38.—Civilian labor force
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TABLE B-40.—Civilian unemployment
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TABLE B-42.—Unemployment by durat
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TABLE B-44.—Employees on nonagric
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TABLE B-45.—Hours and earnings in
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TABLE B-47.—Productivity and rela
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PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYTAB
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TABLE B-51.—Industrial production
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TABLE B-53.—New construction acti
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TABLE B-54.—New housing units sta
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Year or monthTABLE B-56.—Manufact
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TABLE B-58.—Manufacturers' new an
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TABLE B-60.—Consumer price indexe
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TABLE B-61.—Consumer price indexe
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TABLE B-63.—Changes in consumer p
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TABLE B-64.—Producer price indexe
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TABLE B-66.—Producer price indexe
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TABLE B-67.—Changes in producer p
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TABLE B-69.—Components of money s
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TABLE B-70.—Aggregate reserves of
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TABLE B-72.—Bond yields and inter
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TABLE B-73.—Total funds raised in
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TABLE B-74.—Mortgage debt outstan
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TABLE B-76.—Consumer credit outst
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TABLE B-78.—Federal receipts, out
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TABLE B-79.—Federal budget receip
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TABLE B-81.—Federal and State and
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TABLE B-83.—State and local gover
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TABLE B-85.—Interest-bearing publ
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TABLE B-87.—Estimated ownership o
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TABLE B-89.—Corporate profits by
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TABLE B-91.—Sales, profits, and s
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TABLE B-93.—Sources and uses of f
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TABLE B-95.—Business formation an
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19481949195019511952195319541955195
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TABLE B-99.—Indexes of prices rec
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TABLE B-101.— Farm business balan
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TABLE B-103.—U.S. international t
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TABLE B-104.—U.S. merchandise exp
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TABLE B-106.—U.S. merchandise exp
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TABLE B-108.—Industrial productio
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TABLE B-110.—Foreign exchange rat
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NATIONAL WEALTHTABLE B-l 12.—Nati
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SUPPLEMENTARY TABLETABLE B-114.—S
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