Economic Report of the President 1994 - The American Presidency ...

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TABLE B-106.—U.S. merchandise exports, imports, and trade balance, 1972-93[Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted]Year ormonthTotal 2IMerchandise exports (f.a.s. /alue)'Principal end-use commodity categoryFoods,feeds,beveragesIndustrialsuppliesandmaterialsCapitalgoodsceptautomotiveAutomotivevehicles,parts,andenginesConsumergoods(nonfood)Other 2exceptautomotiveGenera merchandise imports (customs value) 3TotalPrincipal end-use commodity categoryFoods,feeds,beveragesIndustrialsuppliesandmaterialsCapitalgoodsceptautomo-ii veAutomotivevehicles,parts,andenginesConsumergoods(nonfood)OtherexceptautomotivePeneralmerchandiseimports(ci.f.value) 4Trade balanceEx-•ip\(f.a.s.)lessim-(customsval-Exports(f.a.s.)lessimports(ci.f.)197219731974197519761977 ....1978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921992:JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDec1993:JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNov49.971.999.4108 9116.8123.2145 8186 4225.6238 7216.4205.6224.07 218.87 227.2254.1322.4363.8393.6421.7448.235.637.637.236.436.038.037.436.437.738.937.839.237.536.938.938.538.937.637.138.138.940.140.131.330.931.524.022.324.332.337.235.135.740.23.13.63.33.43.03.13.43.33.53.63.43.43.33.43.53.43.33.23.23.13.43.53.461.756.761.758.557.366.785.199.3104.4109.7109.3F.a.s. value 59.28.98.88.89.09.49.68.99.09.69.09.29.48.79.29.19.78.89.39.09.69.99.67?.767.272.073.975.886.2109.2138.8152.7166.7176.714.015.215.114.413.915.414.414.014.815.314.515.814.514.315.615.215.315.314.315.315.015.615.515.716.820.622.921.724.629.334.837.440.047.13.43.83.73.93.93.83.94.14.03.84.44.64.14.44.34.44.34.13.84.24.14.54.714.313.413.312.614.217.723.136.443.345.950.43.94.14.13.94.14.24.24.14.44.54.54.34.34.24.44.24.54.34.44.54.64.64.820.720.524.027.335.934.643.417.220.723.724.52.02.12.22.02.12.22.02.02.02.12.01.92.01.92.02.11.92.02.02.12.22.02.055 669.5103 399 3124 61515176 1210 3245.3261 0244.0258.06 330.76 336.5365.4406.2441.0473.2495.3488.5532.741.641.042.743.443.644.944.945.146.046.145.646.145.244.849.348.747.349.747.548.149.551.050.217.118.221.021.924.424.824.825.126.626.527.92.32.22.32.42.32.52.52.32.22.32.22.32.32.22.42.22.32.32.32.32.42.62.3Customs valueF.a.s. value 5Customs value112.0107.0123.7113.9101.3111.0118.3132.3143.2131.6138.310.610.310.611.211.512.012.011.912.012.511.811.511.611.112.612.612.312.812.111.712.212.512.235.440.959.865.171.884.5101.4113.3116.4120.7134.210.310.310.610.910.911.111.311.411.611.811.611.911.711.712.412.412.313.112.812.513.013.713.733.3 39.740.8 44.953.5 60.066.8 68.378.2 79.485.2 88.787.7 95.986.1 102.987.3 105.785.7 108.091.8 123.07.57.17.67.67.67.67.47.77.87.58.08.27.98.38.88.88.28.67.88.58.79.08.89.59.710.09.910.110.110.310.310.910.510.310.710.310.311.511.110.711.311.011.711.611.711.56.56.37.89.410.412.112.813.616.115.917.61.31.51.51.41.41.51.51.31.41.51.71.51.41.31.61.51.61.61.51.41.51.51.758 973.2110.9105 9132.5160.4186 0222 2257.0273 4254.9269.9346.4352.5382.3424.4459.5493.2517.0508.4554.043.442.744.545.245.446.646.746.847.847.947.447.947.046.651.350.649.151.649.450.051.553.052.2-572.4-3996-7.8-28.4-30 223 9-19.7-22 3-27.5-52.4-106.7-6.0-3.4-5.5-7.0-7.7-6.8-7.5-8.7-8.3-7.2-7.8-7.0-7.7-7.9-10.5-10.2-8.4-12.1-10.4-10.0-10.6-10.9-10.2-90-1.3-11430-15.7-37 2-40 235 9-31.434 6-38.4-64.2-122.4-117.7 -133.6-138.3 -155.1-152.1 -170.3-118.5 -137.1-109.4 -129.4-101.7 -123.4-66.7 -86.6-84.5 -105.9-7.8-5.1-7.3-8.8-9.4-8.6-9.3-10.5-10.1-9.1-9.6-8.8-9.5-9.6-12.4-12.1-10.2-14.0-12.3-11.9-12.6-12.S-12.21 Department of Defense shipments of grant-aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excludedfrom total exports through 1985 and included beginning 1986.2 Includes undocumented exports to Canada through 1988. Beginning 1989, undocumented exports to Canada are included in theappropriate end-use category.3 Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments.4 Ci.f. (cost, insurance, and freight) import value at first port of entry into United States. Data for 1967-73 are estimates.5 F.a.s. (free alongside ship) value basis at U.S. port of exportation for exports and at foreign port of exportation for imports.6 Total includes revisions not reflected in detail.7 Total exports are on a revised statistical month basis; end-use categories are on a statistical month basis.Note.—Data are as reported by the Bureau of the Census adjusted to include silver ore and bullion reported separately prior to 1969.Trade in gold is included beginning 1974. Export statistics cover all merchandise shipped from the U.S. customs area, except suppliesfor the U.S.- Armed Forces. Exports include shipments under Agency for International Development and Food for Peace programs as wellas other private relief shipments.Data beginning 1974 include trade of the U.S. Virgin Islands.Source.- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.390
TABLE B-107.—International reserves, selected years, 1952-93[Millions of SDRs; end of period]Area and country 1952 1962 1972 1982 1990 1991 1992Oct1993NovAll countries49,38862,851146,658361,253670,678704,672725,652760,728765,608Industrial countries *39,28053,502113,362214,014441,946428,438424,229439,197442,458United StatesCanadaAustraliaJapanNew ZealandAustriaBelgiumDenmarkFinlandFrance24,7141,9449201,1011831161,13315013268617,2202,5611,1682,0212511,0811,7532562374,04912,1125,5725,65616,9167672,5053,5647876649,22429,9183,4286,05322,0015775,5444,7572,1111,42017,85059,95813,06011,71056,0272,9027,3059,5997,5026,84928,71655,76911,81611,83751,2242,0627,9249,5735,2345,38924,73552,9958,6628,42952,9372,2399,70310,9148,0903,86222,52254,7479,2568,31871,3462,52510,0668,8436,4483,47254,6798,7298,34110,3819,0056,4563,650GermanyGreeceIcelandIrelandItalyNetherlands9609483187229536,958287323594,0681,94321,908950781,0385,6054,40743,9099161332,39015,10810,72351,0602,5173083,68446,56513,82747,3753,7473164,02636,36513,98069,4893,3693642,51422,43817,49259,0114,4763214,68523,00124,08960,1102884,69323,73524,072NorwayPortugalSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited Kingdom1646031345041,6671,9563046801,0458022,9193,3081,2202,1294,6181,4536,9615,2016,2721,1797,4503,39716,93011,90410,81910,73636,55512,85623,45625,8649,29214,97746,56213,02823,19129,9488,72514,47433,64016,66727,10027,30014,28430,14214,39925,18614,44830i22525,463Developing countries: Total 29,6489,34933,295147,239228,732276,234301,423321,531323,149By area:AfricaAsia 2EuropeMiddle EastWestern Hemisphere1,7863,7932691,1832,6162,1102,7723811,8052,2823,9628,1292,6809,4369,0897,73444,4905,35964,09425,56312,053128,82615,53537,95634,36114,587157,53515,82341,77746,51213,095164,41715,17143,87764,86113,452175,19116,32145,15571,41213,230176,55716,37145,29671,696Memo:Oil-exporting countriesNon-oil developing countries1,6997,9492,0307,3199,95623,33967,16380,07643,875184,85748,883227,35145,871255,55245,534275,99745,280277,8691 Includes data for Luxembourg.2 Includes data for Taiwan Province of China.Note.—International reserves is comprised of monetary authorities' holdings of gold (at SDR 35 per ounce), special drawing rights(SDRs), reserve positions in the International Monetary Fund, and foreign exchange. Data exclude U.S.S.R., other Eastern Europeancountries, and Cuba (after 1960).U.S. dollars per SDR (end of period) are: 1952 and 1962—1.00000; 1972—1.08571; 1982—1.10311; 1990—1.42266; 1991—1.43043; 1992—1.37500; October 1993—1.39293; and November 1993—1.38389.Source: International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics.391
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S : Sf:' ;: W^W't-^WW': ;, S 4 Si :
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unitedminds
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Economic Report of the PresidentTo
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the Technology Reinvestment Project
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formed health care system, increase
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CONTENTSPageCHAPTER 1. A STRATEGY F
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PageProviding Comprehensive Benefit
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LIST OF CHARTS—CONTINUEDPage3-5 L
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CHAPTER 1A Strategy for Growth and
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which have left consumers and busin
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that growth in both real compensati
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for inflation was on average roughl
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Box 1-2.—Saving, Investment, and
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investments in human capital; inves
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of the income distribution (Table 1
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Box 1-3.—Credible Deficit Reducti
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Chart 1-7 Correlation of Investment
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Box 1~4*~-A Balanced Budget Amendme
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This educational record is not good
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fallen markedly since the 1960s (Ch
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The development and deployment of n
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Earlier rounds of GATT talks had fo
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Chart 1-10 Projected Real Growth Ra
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are therefore on the public dole. M
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prise communities and be granted sm
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ingredient that should allow the ec
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Chart 2-2 National Defense Purchase
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Chart 2-3 Growth of U.S. Merchandis
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Chart 2-5 Households: Credit Market
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THE HEADWINDS ARE MOSTLY CALMINGAs
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1993, real consumer spending increa
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RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENTResidential i
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smallest annual increase in 20 year
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ments with the Internal Revenue Ser
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safe-harbor rules for underpayment
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Chart 2-9 Alternative Measures of t
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Meanwhile, the Mountain States were
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inflation is measured by the Blue C
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Saving, Investment, and Capital Acc
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the future should be reflected in l
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Chart 2-15 Dynamic Effects of Defic
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joyed healthy average real GDP grow
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Chart 2-16 Personal Income Taxes as
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TABLE 2-2.— Administration Foreca
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TABLE 2-3.— Accounting for Growth
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CHAPTER 3Trends and Recent Developm
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first quarter of 1991, nonfarm payr
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cause defense cutbacks have caused
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UNEMPLOYMENT AND NONEMPLOYMENTThe U
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Chart 3-3 Civilian Unemployment Rat
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Chart 3-6 Employment-to-Population
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Chart 3-8 Ratio of White-Collar to
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than would be expected given its hi
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that the natural rate is falling? M
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SLOW INCOME GROWTHIncome trends hav
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Chart 3-10 Average Annual Growth of
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Box 3-3.—Consequences of Producti
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likely that immigration could expla
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We do, however, know how many worke
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size. No data are available on vola
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BENEFITSOne of the concerns raised
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edented partnership to develop a nu
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CHAPTER 4Health Care ReformTHE UNIT
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make cost-conscious decisions. In a
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A third rationale for universal cov
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Box 4-1.—Moral Hazard and Adverse
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ies depending on one's health statu
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than people in other countries do,
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sumers are ill equipped to bring st
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By itself, the aging of the populat
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TABLE 4-3.- Sources and Uses of Hea
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about 65 to 70 cents for a typical
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THE ARCHITECTURE OF THE HEALTHSECUR
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etary savings for the Federal Gover
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contribution, within limits. Outsid
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salary income, payments from the em
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TABLE 4-6.—Caps on Premiums by Fi
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An example will illustrate the proc
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TABLE 4-9.—Sources and Uses of Fe
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Chart 4-9 Business Spending on Heal
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Health care reform should set the s
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and private sectors, addressing env
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Box 5-1.—Selected National Perfor
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Box 5-2*—Market PowerFirms are sa
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ate regulation. For example, State
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competitiveness of U.S. industry, a
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Box 5-4.—ExternalitiesAn external
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in the habitat of the spotted owl r
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CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLANCertain g
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eral, lays a foundation for broader
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The Administration's proposal seeks
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vances in technical know-how have a
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Investments in R&D are risky. Like
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1950s and 1960s, and American compa
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ico and Lawrence Livermore in Calif
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of industry. MOCs will be affiliate
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tiveness. Again, the hoped-for resu
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forts to cut the massive Federal bu
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TECHNOLOGY POLICY, GROWTH, ANDCOMPE
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mitment to an open international tr
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ses, which take such intersectoral
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An important sectoral development i
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TABLE 6-3.—Stock of U.S. Outward
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technical change has been offered a
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ent account is a broader measure of
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TABLE 6-6.—Intrafirm Trade as Sha
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greater access to the Japanese mark
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the transparency of its trade regim
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that if the states of the former So
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Box 6-3.—Mexican Economic Reforms
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1998, while nontariff barriers on a
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ward convergence in environmental a
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Box 6-4.—The Asian "Miracle"Per c
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Box 6-5.—The Economic Impact of t
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development, and environmental clea
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THE TRADE POLICY AGENDABy lowering
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ignated monopolies. It also establi
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The dollar ended 1993 roughly where
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Box 6-7.—Exchange-Rate Volatility
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Chart 6-5 French Franc-Deutsche Mar
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Besides bringing these endeavors to
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LETTER OF TRANSMITTALCOUNCIL OF ECO
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Report to the President on the Acti
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duction budget package, the North A
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Working Group studying cost-benefit
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prepares the Economic Indicators an
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Appendix BSTATISTICAL TABLES RELATI
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POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, AND
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AGRICULTURE:PageB-96. Farm income,
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NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURETABLE
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TABLE B-2.—Gross domestic product
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TABLE B-3.—Implicit price deflato
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TABLE B-4.—Fixed-weighted price i
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TABLE B-5.—Changes in gross domes
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TABLE B-7.—Cross domestic product
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TABLE B-9.—Gross domestic product
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TABLE B-ll.—Gross domestic produc
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TABLE B-13.—Gross domestic produc
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TABLE B-15.—Personal consumption
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TABLE B-17.—Gross and net private
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TABLE B-19.—Inventories and final
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TABLE B-21.—Foreign transactions
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TABLE B-23.—Relation of gross dom
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TABLE B-25.—National income by ty
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TABLE B-26.—Sources of personal i
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TABLE B-27.—Disposition of person
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TABLE B-29.—Gross sating and inve
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TABLE B-31.—Median money income (
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TABLE B-33.—Population and the la
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TABLE B-34.—Civilian employment a
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TABLE B-36.—Unemployment by demog
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TABLE B-38.—Civilian labor force
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TABLE B-40.—Civilian unemployment
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TABLE B-42.—Unemployment by durat
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TABLE B-44.—Employees on nonagric
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TABLE B-45.—Hours and earnings in
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TABLE B-47.—Productivity and rela
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PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYTAB
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TABLE B-51.—Industrial production
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TABLE B-53.—New construction acti
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TABLE B-54.—New housing units sta
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Year or monthTABLE B-56.—Manufact
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TABLE B-58.—Manufacturers' new an
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TABLE B-60.—Consumer price indexe
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TABLE B-61.—Consumer price indexe
Page 346 and 347: TABLE B-63.—Changes in consumer p
Page 348 and 349: TABLE B-64.—Producer price indexe
Page 350 and 351: TABLE B-66.—Producer price indexe
Page 352 and 353: TABLE B-67.—Changes in producer p
Page 354 and 355: TABLE B-69.—Components of money s
Page 356 and 357: TABLE B-70.—Aggregate reserves of
Page 358 and 359: TABLE B-72.—Bond yields and inter
Page 360 and 361: TABLE B-73.—Total funds raised in
Page 362 and 363: TABLE B-74.—Mortgage debt outstan
Page 364 and 365: TABLE B-76.—Consumer credit outst
Page 366 and 367: TABLE B-78.—Federal receipts, out
Page 368 and 369: TABLE B-79.—Federal budget receip
Page 370 and 371: TABLE B-81.—Federal and State and
Page 372 and 373: TABLE B-83.—State and local gover
Page 374 and 375: TABLE B-85.—Interest-bearing publ
Page 376 and 377: TABLE B-87.—Estimated ownership o
Page 378 and 379: TABLE B-89.—Corporate profits by
Page 380 and 381: TABLE B-91.—Sales, profits, and s
Page 382 and 383: TABLE B-93.—Sources and uses of f
Page 384 and 385: TABLE B-95.—Business formation an
Page 386 and 387: 19481949195019511952195319541955195
Page 388 and 389: TABLE B-99.—Indexes of prices rec
Page 390 and 391: TABLE B-101.— Farm business balan
Page 392 and 393: TABLE B-103.—U.S. international t
Page 394 and 395: TABLE B-104.—U.S. merchandise exp
Page 398 and 399: TABLE B-108.—Industrial productio
Page 400 and 401: TABLE B-110.—Foreign exchange rat
Page 402 and 403: NATIONAL WEALTHTABLE B-l 12.—Nati
Page 404: SUPPLEMENTARY TABLETABLE B-114.—S
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