Thailand Power Development Plan 2015-2036
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4. <strong>Power</strong> Demand Forecast<br />
4.1 Current Status of <strong>Thailand</strong> <strong>Power</strong> Sector<br />
The peak power demand of year 2014 occurred on April 23, 2014 at 2.26 p.m.<br />
with the temperature of 37.5 Degree Celsius where the maximum power generation of EGAT<br />
system reached 26,942.1 MW relating to 344.0 MW or 1.29 percent higher than the record of<br />
2013. The energy requirement of EGAT system was 177,580 GWh relating to 4,045 GWh or<br />
2.33 percent higher than the record of the previous year.<br />
The country’s peak power demand occurring at the same time of EGAT system’s<br />
reached 27,663.5 MW relating to 549.0 MW or 2.03 percent higher than that of year 2013.<br />
The energy requirement increased 5,338.8 GWh or 3.01 percent from the record of year<br />
2013.<br />
4.2 <strong>Thailand</strong> <strong>Power</strong> Demand Forecast<br />
The National Energy Policy Council (NEPC) approved assumptions and frameworks<br />
to formulate the <strong>Thailand</strong> <strong>Power</strong> <strong>Development</strong> <strong>Plan</strong> <strong>2015</strong>-<strong>2036</strong> (PDP<strong>2015</strong>) on August 15,<br />
<strong>2015</strong>. In addition, the Alternative Energy <strong>Development</strong> <strong>Plan</strong> (AEDP) and the Energy Efficiency<br />
<strong>Development</strong> <strong>Plan</strong> (EEDP) were also formulated along the timeframe between year <strong>2015</strong><br />
and <strong>2036</strong>.<br />
The new <strong>Thailand</strong>’s Load Forecast was formulated in line with the potential and<br />
target of the AEDP and the EEDP, economic growth, changes in economic structure,<br />
infrastructure development projects, the performance of the EEDP measures, and VSPP<br />
power purchase plan. The <strong>Thailand</strong>’s new Load Forecast was proposed to <strong>Thailand</strong> Load<br />
Forecast and <strong>Power</strong> <strong>Development</strong> Subcommittee and approved on January 9, <strong>2015</strong>.<br />
The power demand forecast was formulated as the business as usual case (BAU)<br />
according to the average forecasted GDP growth during year 2014-<strong>2036</strong> (Base case) published<br />
by the NESDB on September 2, 2014 of 3.94 percent - the previous plan of 4.49 percent.<br />
In addition, population growth, urbanization, and growth rate of electricity customers by<br />
economic sectors were also considered. Consequently, End-Use model and Econometrics<br />
model developed by Thammasat University were used for the formulation on the power<br />
demand forecast development with the assumptions as follows:<br />
4-1
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