Thailand Power Development Plan 2015-2036
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Assumptions of the <strong>Power</strong> Demand Forecast<br />
1) The power demand forecast models for long-term energy efficiency<br />
developed by Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University (February 2014) were used to<br />
estimate the power demand of the Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA) distribution system<br />
and the Metropolitan Electricity Authority (MEA) distribution system. Assumptions required<br />
for the models are growth rates of Residential, Business, Industrial, and Other Customer in<br />
the distribution system which changes according to economic and population growth.<br />
2) The actual data from January to October 2014 and the estimated data from<br />
November to December of 2014 were used to estimate the power demand of year 2014.<br />
3) The estimated GDP growth during year 2014-<strong>2036</strong> was published by NESDB<br />
on September 2, 2014 in which the outcomes from the infrastructure development projects<br />
excluding high speed train projects were included in the estimation. The estimated GDP<br />
growth during year 2014-<strong>2036</strong> expected to grow on the average of 3.94 percent annually was<br />
used in the power demand forecast models. The details of the estimated GDP growth during<br />
year 2014-<strong>2036</strong> are shown in the following table:<br />
Table 4.1 the estimated long-term GDP growth by NESDB (September 2, 2014)<br />
Year 2014 <strong>2015</strong> 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025<br />
GDP 2.0 4.0 4.4 4.7 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.0<br />
Year 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 <strong>2036</strong><br />
GDP 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8<br />
4) The maximum power demand of each electricity customer was estimated<br />
from load profiles of year 2013.<br />
5) The power demand from BTS sky train, MRT train, and 10 mass rapid transit<br />
projects in Bangkok was counted in the model except those of the unclear high speed train<br />
projects.<br />
6) The target of the EEDP is to reduce the energy intensity of year <strong>2036</strong> by 30<br />
percent from that of year 2010. Thus, the measures of the EEDP on electricity focus mainly<br />
on industrial, building, residential, and government sector as shown in the table below:<br />
4-2
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