Responsible gambling - Consumer Affairs Victoria
Responsible gambling - Consumer Affairs Victoria
Responsible gambling - Consumer Affairs Victoria
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CONTINUED<br />
A2<br />
What are my chances?<br />
GAMBLER’S HELP LINE<br />
28<br />
<strong>Responsible</strong> Gambling | Section A: What’s the big deal?<br />
<strong>Consumer</strong> <strong>Affairs</strong> <strong>Victoria</strong> | consumer.vic.gov.au<br />
Exercise 5 – Expected return<br />
The odds given at roulette represent payouts for wins, so for example the payout on a split bet<br />
would be $18 per dollar bet ($17 plus the original $1 bet).<br />
There are 37 numbers on a typical roulette wheel (0 – 36). So the probability of winning straight<br />
up is 1/37. (note, the probability of losing is therefore 36/37 or 97%). However the payout for<br />
a straight up win is $35 not $37. A winner would receive $36 per $1 spent, which includes the<br />
original $1 bet plus $35.<br />
Expected return (ER) refers to expected money to be paid to the gambler per $1 spent.<br />
ER = probability x return.<br />
With one ‘0’ on the wheel, ER = 1/37 x 36 = 97.3%. That is, for every dollar spent, a gambler would<br />
expect to win back 97.3 cents over the long run. Note that the payout odds have been set so this<br />
ER holds true for any kind of bet on the roulette wheel.<br />
Even if a gambler won more often than they lost, could they beat the house?<br />
a. Just like Lotto, roulette is considered to be betting on a random event.<br />
In what sense is roulette a random event game?<br />
b. Crown supplies cards for gamblers to keep a record of where the ball lands.<br />
Explain how these cards can support the gamblers’ fallacy, using an example to illustrate your answer.<br />
c. Josh kept placing bets on numbers one or two off the spin. He thought that he was getting really<br />
close to winning. So he raised his bets. Where did Josh go wrong?<br />
Exercise 6 – Your message<br />
Choose one of the following:-<br />
a) You are working for a responsible <strong>gambling</strong> organization and want to get rid of the record cards<br />
for roulette. Write a letter advocating for their removal. In your letter you will need to consider<br />
the arguments of the casino for having them, as well as arguments against.<br />
b) Create a slogan and graphic to illustrate the notion of ‘house edge’. Produce this as a poster,<br />
suitable for a billboard, or<br />
c) Create a cartoon suitable for publishing in a newspaper, illustrating the gamblers’ fallacy.<br />
1800 858 858 www.problem<strong>gambling</strong>.vic.gov.au
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