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International Trade - Theory and Policy, 2010a

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Figure 5.20 Dynamic Import-Capital Income Effects of <strong>Trade</strong> Liberalization<br />

The models suggest that workers who initially work in the export industry will experience gains in real<br />

income in the short run, followed by ambiguous effects in the medium run, followed by losses in the long<br />

run. The dynamic path might look like the red line shown in Figure 5.21 "Dynamic Export-Labor Income<br />

Effects of <strong>Trade</strong> Liberalization". The path is drawn such that the medium-run effect is zero, but the path<br />

could be either positive or negative at that point. The present value of this stream of benefits <strong>and</strong> costs<br />

could be positive or negative. If the short-run benefits are sufficiently large or last long enough or if the<br />

discount rate is high, then the present value would be positive. Otherwise, the present value is negative.<br />

Figure 5.21 Dynamic Export-Labor Income Effects of <strong>Trade</strong> Liberalization<br />

Saylor URL: http://www.saylor.org/books<br />

Saylor.org<br />

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