International Trade - Theory and Policy, 2010a

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effects, it would then need to measure how the level of production would influence the size of the learning effects in all periods in the future. It would also need to know how various tariff levels would affect the level of domestic production. To answer this requires information about domestic and foreign supply and demand elasticities. Of course, estimates of past elasticities may not work well, especially if technological advances or preference changes occur in the future. All of this information is needed to determine the appropriate level of protection to grant as well as a timetable for tariff reduction. If the tariff is set too low or for too short a time, the firms might not be sufficiently protected to induce adequate production levels and stimulate the required learning effects. If the tariff is set too high or for too long a period, then the firms might become lazy. Efficiency improvements might not be made and the learning effects might be slow in coming. In this case, the production and consumption efficiency losses from the tariff could outweigh the benefits accruing due to learning. This same information deficiency problem arises in every example of selected protection. Of course, the government would not need pinpoint accuracy to assure a positive welfare outcome. As demonstrated in the case of optimal tariffs, there would be a range of tariff levels that would raise national welfare above the level attained in free trade. A similar range of welfare-improving protection levels would also hold in all the other cases of selected protection. However, there is one other informational constraint that is even ignored in most economic analyses of trade policies. This problem arises when there are multiple distortions or imperfections present in the economy simultaneously (exactly what we would expect to see in the real world). Most trade policy analyses incorporate one economic distortion into a model and then analyze what the optimal trade policy would be in that context. Implicitly, this assumes either that there are no other distortions in the economy or that the market in which the trade policy is being considered is too small to have any external effects on other markets. The first assumption is clearly not satisfied in the world, while the second is probably not valid for many large industries. The following example suggests the nature of the informational problem. Suppose there are two industries that are linked together because their products are substitutable in consumption to some degree. Suppose one of these industries exhibits a positive dynamic learning externality and is having difficulty competing with foreign imports (i.e., it is an infant industry). Assume the other industry heavily pollutes the domestic water and air (i.e., it exhibits a negative production externality). Now suppose the government Saylor URL: http://www.saylor.org/books Saylor.org 563
decides to protect the infant industry with an import tariff. This action would, of course, stimulate domestic production of the good and also stimulate the positive learning effects for the economy. However, the domestic price of this good would rise, reducing domestic consumption. These higher prices would force consumers to substitute other products in consumption. Since the other industry’s products are assumed to be substitutable, demand for that industry’s goods will rise. The increase in demand would stimulate production of that good and, because of its negative externality, cause more pollution to the domestic environment. If the negative effects to the economy from additional pollution are greater than the positive learning effects, then the infant industry protection could reduce rather than improve national welfare. The point of this example, however, is to demonstrate that in the presence of multiple distortions or imperfections in interconnected markets (i.e., in a general equilibrium model), the determination of optimal policies requires that one consider the intermarket effects. The optimal infant industry tariff must take into account the effects of the tariff on the polluting industry. Similarly, if the government wants to set an optimal environmental policy, it would need to account for the effects of the policy on the industry with the learning externality. This simple example suggests a much more serious informational problem for the government. If the real economy has numerous market imperfections and distortions spread out among numerous industries that are interconnected through factor or goods market competition, then to determine the true optimal set of policies that would correct or reduce all the imperfections and distortions simultaneously would require the solution to a dynamic general equilibrium model that accurately describes the real economy not only today but also in all periods in the future. This type of model, or its solution, is simply not achievable today with any high degree of accuracy. Given the complexity, it seems unlikely that we would ever be capable of producing such a model. The implication of this informational problem is that trade policy will always be like a shot in the dark. There is absolutely no way of knowing with a high degree of accuracy whether any policy will improve economic efficiency. This represents a serious blow to the case for government intervention in the form of trade policies. If the intention of government is to set trade policies that will improve economic efficiency, then since it is impossible to know whether any policy would actually achieve that goal, it seems prudent Saylor URL: http://www.saylor.org/books Saylor.org 564
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This text was adapted by The Saylor
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Chapter 1 Introductory Trade Issues
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However, rapid growth in the value
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As of 2009, 153 countries were memb
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International trade is a field in e
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imported, the U.S. government colle
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Kenya 12.7 Ghana 13.1 Generally spe
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Average tariffs can be measured as
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When the bubble bursts, the demand
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missed deadlines are commonplace in
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a well-known “bicycle theory” a
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But at the same time that many deve
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Recent opposition to trade liberali
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ought back to the United States and
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conference attended by the main all
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One of the key principles of the GA
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arriers. [1] The trade remedy laws
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ound tariff rate the country reache
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instead, they are put into place ov
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5. The WTO principle to treat an im
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subsidies. Recall that export subsi
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As a result of Uruguay Round negoti
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Agreement, or TRIPS. The TRIPS inte
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1.7 The World Trade Organization LE
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1. Consultations. The DSB first dem
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countries from choosing more destru
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P, P+ CAFTA-DR FTA PE MA OM R SG U.
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0806.10.20 $1.13/m 3 (Feb. 15-Mar.
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Tariffs vary according to time of e
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1.9 Appendix B: Bound versus Applie
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EXERCISE 1. Jeopardy Questions. As
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2.1 The Reasons for Trade LEARNING
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For example, the Ricardian model of
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2. Learn the major historical figur
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could end up with more of both good
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The primary issue in the analysis o
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Real wages (and incomes) of individ
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he begins planting seeds in the sec
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In this way, we might raise the wel
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2.3 Ricardian Model Assumptions LEA
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Utility Maximization and Demand In
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United States L C + L W = L France
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2. Suppose that the unit labor requ
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KEY TAKEAWAYS The equation aLC QC
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comparative advantage in newspaper
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−aLCaLW⎡⎣⎢hrslbhrsgal=gallb
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KEY TAKEAWAYS Labor productivity i
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2.6 A Ricardian Numerical Example L
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With full employment of labor, prod
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At this point, we can already see a
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The answer to some of these questio
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wC=PCaLC. If production occurs in t
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Thus a good way to think about how
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Similarly, by rearranging the above
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production. But where will they fin
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The focus on real wages allows us t
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Real Wages in Autarky To calculate
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exchange. Thus the real wage of che
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2.11 The Welfare Effects of Free Tr
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Free trade will raise aggregate wel
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Chapter 3 The Pure Exchange Model o
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A Simple Example of Trade Suppose t
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3.2 Determinants of the Terms of Tr
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Persuasion The art of persuasion ca
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KEY TAKEAWAY The terms of trade is
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two individuals make a voluntary ex
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3.4 Three Traders and Redistributio
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is not motivated by profit but inst
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The changes described above assume
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3.6 The Nondiscrimination Argument
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clothing worker. The same applies i
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the page, scroll down to the “Bou
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4.1 Factor Mobility Overview LEARNI
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argument that free trade can only b
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them, but only if the prices are ve
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4.3 Time and Factor Mobility LEARNI
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factor to be moved and become produ
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KEY TAKEAWAY The immobile factor m
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wine workers and cheese workers. Th
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In autarky, the quantity demanded o
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4.7 Depicting a Free Trade Equilibr
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0 the variable does not change A th
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Thus cheese workers are most likely
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Real Wage of Wheat Workers in Terms
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wages. However, these extra profits
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French production and consumption i
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5.1 Chapter Overview LEARNING OBJEC
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less-developed countries have much
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would rise, while the wage rate wou
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Ricardian model, then factor prices
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4. This is by which industries diff
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where KC and KS are the quantities
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Let aLC[labor−hrsrack] represent
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The capital-labor ratio in an indus
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that would employ all the capital i
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The Relationship between Endowments
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Suppose the exogenous variables of
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Adding these two equations vertical
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3. Write the magnification effect f
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tariffs or other government regulat
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If the price of clothing had risen,
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Table 5.6 Numerical Values for Exog
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w∧>PC∧>PS∧>r∧. The effect i
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2. Suppose the price of cheese fall
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this requires a fair amount of adva
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workers per unit of capital in the
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of quantities CS″/CC″. Since CS
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In Figure 5.8 "Free Trade Equilibri
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5.11 National Welfare Effects of Fr
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calculating changes in real income
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who has deposits in a pension plan
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export industry in order to benefit
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Income is redistributed among indiv
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Thus it is always possible to find
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affects the capital-labor ratios in
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1. Describe the pattern of factor f
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assumed to be freely and costlessly
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expansion of output in the export s
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[1] See R. W. Jones, “A Three-Fac
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product line for a representative t
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The total amount of revenue earned
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The horizontal length of Figure 5.1
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Our prime concern, however, is the
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An alternative version of the magni
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8. The magnification effect for pri
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can be used to transport tomatoes o
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esponds to the excess supply of wor
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The effect on workers is, in genera
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Factor Rewards over Time Now let’
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Figure 5.20 Dynamic Import-Capital
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In summary, the models suggest that
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[1] See J. P. Neary, “Short-Run C
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6.2 Economies of Scale and Returns
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produced and if the costs of this e
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6.3 Gains from Trade with Economies
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United States aLC = 1 L = 100 Franc
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thirty racks of clothing, then each
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model best describes markets in whi
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2. Each firm produces a product tha
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2. The demand assumption in which e
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Keep in mind that this is the equil
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KEY TAKEAWAYS A market equilibrium
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1. If the product is such that an i
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varieties may increase aggregate we
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7.1 Basic Assumptions of the Partia
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2. The term used to describe a coun
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where XSUS(.) is the export supply
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This implies also that world supply
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1. The price that equalizes one cou
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The price that ultimately prevails
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Surplus", some firm would be willin
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Changes in Producer Surplus Suppose
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2. The term used to describe a meas
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the same price for their product re
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to purchase the Mexican wheat at $1
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The effect on the foreign price is
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The quantity of imports and exports
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the sum of the gains exceeds the su
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indicate the effect of each policy
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7.6 The Optimal Tariff LEARNING OBJ
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zero. Somewhere between a zero tari
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3. The tariff rate that corresponds
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KEY TAKEAWAYS An import tariff wil
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7.8 Import Tariffs: Small Country W
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3. The tariff causes a redistributi
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1. Where on the graph is the level
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We examine the effects of optimal t
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3. Given player one’s optimal pol
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The goal of a cooperative equilibri
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1. Use the information provided in
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7.10 Import Quotas: Large Country P
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An import quota will reduce the qua
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KEY TAKEAWAYS To administer a quot
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demand is equal to the quota level.
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market decreases producer surplus i
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Foreign National Welfare 2. Suppose
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This implies that, in the case of a
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Quota Rents National Welfare + C
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Import Quota (Administered by Givin
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to as tariffication. In this way, f
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Next, consider the effects in this
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In situations where market changes
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where S is the specific export subs
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7.17 Export Subsidies: Large Countr
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the subsidy payments are made, then
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An export subsidy of any size will
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2. Identify the effects of a counte
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Table 7.12 "Welfare Effects of the
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Consumer Surplus − (G + H + I + J
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KEY TAKEAWAYS An antisubsidy law,
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9. What is the change in government
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Notice that a unique set of prices
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in the import country and in the ca
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Figure 7.36 Welfare Effects of a VE
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the quota rents will benefit, but p
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A the variable change is ambiguous
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Mexico, and all wheat sold in Mexic
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7.23 Export Taxes: Large Country We
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Because there are both positive and
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− the variable decreases 0 the va
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If a domestic consumption tax is im
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Equivalency between Domestic and Tr
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An import tariff applied on an impo
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KEY TAKEAWAYS Domestic production
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a Domestic Production Subsidy", whi
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Domestic policies can affect trade
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+ the variable increases − the va
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Domestic consumption taxes are ofte
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Figure 8.3 Inducing Exports with a
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8.7 Consumption Tax Effects in a Sm
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Since the cost to consumers exceeds
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When a specific consumption tax “
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time of the founding of the nation,
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Chapter 9 Trade Policies with Marke
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Market imperfections or market dist
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firm’s welfare) by restricting su
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are neatly kept and homes are well
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Policy-Imposed Distortions Another
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In this section, we will provide an
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Welfare-Improving Policies in a Sec
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Summary of the Theory of the Second
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9.4 Unemployment and Trade Policy L
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Suppose that international market c
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9.2 "Welfare Effects of an Import T
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Begin with the same surge of import
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eliminate the same unemployment imp
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A the variable change is ambiguous
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their own production efficiency imp
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Suppose that the infant industry ar
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This means that in the second perio
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The Economic Argument against Infan
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world efficiency standards, protect
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9.6 The Case of a Foreign Monopoly
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Assuming the monopolist maximizes p
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Import tariff effects on the import
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This shows that although a tariff c
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2. Recognize that a trade policy ca
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consider a large importing country
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the subsidy is set too high, the lo
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9.8 Public Goods and National Secur
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nonexcludable because once it is th
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efficiency loss. Nevertheless, the
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5. The term describing a ìgoodî l
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the environment. On the other hand,
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Pollution Effect National Welfare
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Govt. Revenue Pollution Effect + e
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A Source of Controversy For many en
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This statement points out that many
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noneconomists, providing permits th
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[4] World Trade Organization, “Tr
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product categories. This type of tr
Page 514 and 515: The key question of interest concer
Page 516 and 517: Figure 9.10 "Harmful Trade Diversio
Page 518 and 519: Free trade area effects on Country
Page 520 and 521: We assume that A has a specific tar
Page 522 and 523: The simple way to do that is to ima
Page 524 and 525: Chapter 10 Political Economy and In
Page 526 and 527: do indeed seek to maximize national
Page 528 and 529: a representative democracy, governm
Page 530 and 531: 3. This type of lobbying does not i
Page 532 and 533: much larger than the number of firm
Page 534 and 535: We can now ask whether a household
Page 536 and 537: Large groups are much less effectiv
Page 538 and 539: Because the per-producer benefit of
Page 540 and 541: clearly he or she would vote for th
Page 542 and 543: 10.7 The Lobbying Problem in a Demo
Page 544 and 545: Chapter 11 Evaluating the Controver
Page 546 and 547: the results from any one model. Ins
Page 548 and 549: increase in national welfare. This
Page 550 and 551: 4. The enhancement of this is what
Page 552 and 553: of the real world. The real world c
Page 554 and 555: Another way to deflect the concern
Page 556 and 557: For example, an optimal tariff or o
Page 558 and 559: Stuart Mill in hisPrinciples of Pol
Page 560 and 561: 11.5 The Economic Case against Sele
Page 562 and 563: to eliminate some of the inefficien
Page 566 and 567: to avoid the use of any such policy
Page 568 and 569: Selected protection requires detail
Page 570 and 571: 11.6 Free Trade as the “Pragmatic
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