The Gateway Chronicle 2020

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74 Mathematics and Economics Coronavirus – ‘the science of uncertainty?’ W hen Canadian physician William Osler remarked ‘medicine is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability’ at the turn of the 20 th century, it was a sentiment that resonated strongly. One hundred years on, in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic, it certainly feels like we’re facing a ‘science of uncertainty’, with so many questions unanswered and our ordinary lives hanging in the balance. However, the uncertainty we face now is just a fraction of that which humanity has dealt with in the face of pandemics gone by and an exploration of four of the world’s deadliest pandemics shows just how far the history of thought around disease has evolved. “One hundred years on, in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic, it certainly feels like we’re facing a ‘science of uncertainty’” One of the earliest pandemics recorded was the Plague of Justinian, named after the Emperor Justinian, I who ruled at the time, which tore through the Byzantine Empire and The Eastern Mediterranean in the middle of the sixth century. Caused by the same disease that caused the Black Death, the Plague of Justinian was bubonic, with reports of swellings, delirium and fever. A contemporary scholar, Procopius, blamed the disease on the emperor, ‘declaring Justinian to be either a devil or that the emperor was being punished by God for his evil ways’. Whether or not this personal attack on the emperor was a widespread theory, the idea of plague being a punishment from God certainly was and one of the main home remedies was prayer, along with powders that had been ‘blessed’ by saints, magic charms and amulets, all of which were designed to appease supernatural forces. Other home remedies included cold-water baths and drug taking, none of which were noted to be particularly effec- The Black Death killed up tive, of which the same can be to 60% of all Europeans at said for professional treatment the time by a physician, which was based on Galen’s ideas of balancing the body’s humours. By the end of the pandemic, an estimated 25 million people had died – a staggering
7375 amount considering it lasted less than two years – but certainly less than the alleged 500 million who were cut down by the same disease eight centuries later, under the new name of The Black Death. There was incredibly little medical innovation in Europe in the period between these two catastrophic plagues, which can largely be attributed to the dominance of the Roman Catholic Church. As a sufferer of the Black Death, which killed as many as 60% of Europe’s population between 1346-53, you would largely have been offered the same choices as during the Plague of Justinian. Unless you were rich enough to afford a physician, there were home remedies and other ‘cures’, which ranged from selfflagellation in the street, strapping a live chicken to buboes – known as the Vicary method after the man who invented it – or drinking potions laced with mercury. “There was incredibly little medical innovation in Europe in the period between these two catastrophic plagues” Although there was some good news, such as a primitive understanding of quarantine, significant breakthroughs in the thought around disease and pandemics John Snow made important discoveries about cholera were yet to be made, with the majority of people – like before – blaming supernatural causes such as God’s punishment and the positioning of the planets. More significant medical developments were made centuries later, during the Third Cholera Pandemic, which was arguably the most severe of the seven global cholera pandemics that we know of in recorded history. Much of this was thanks to the work of physician John Snow, who discovered the connection between the disease and contaminated water. Due to the commonly held beliefs about miasma and spontaneous generation, efforts were already being made to keep streets clean following the Public Health Act of 1848, but cholera was still rampant. By mapping the deaths in a breakout in Soho, Snow realised that there was a strong concentration round a water pump on Broad Street. After removing the handle, so it could no longer be used, the deaths fell. He might not have had the science to prove it, which was discovered a decade or so later by Louis Pasteur, but John Snow knew something: that the disease was spreading through water, not air. Unable to completely prove this to the government, the immediate effect his findings had was limited – other than to the people living near the Broad Street pump – but he has
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CHRONICLE Thinking History THE GATE
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Contents A word from the editors…
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4 Political Ideologies Mare Nostrum
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6 Fascist Party’ was able to win
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8 Political Ideologies Lebensraum:
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10 isolation. Firstly, the Holocaus
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12 Political Ideologies How was Hit
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14 at fault for losing the First Wo
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16 For instance, for the 1937 Paris
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18 With that said, how did it actua
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20 Zionists both in Palestine and t
Page 25 and 26: 23 Wars of the Roses had significan
Page 27 and 28: Individuals 25 Marlene Dietrich: Re
Page 29 and 30: 27 became problematic when she retu
Page 31 and 32: 29 theatre director Vsevolod Meyerh
Page 34 and 35: 32 Religion Establishing and develo
Page 36 and 37: 34 which is often the way popular r
Page 38 and 39: 36 to a period of sustained chaos,
Page 40 and 41: 38 individuals, who believe that di
Page 42 and 43: 40 This said, it took until AD597 f
Page 44 and 45: 42 This brings us to the 6 th of Ja
Page 46 and 47: 44 - including explanations on cont
Page 48 and 49: 46 In Islam, waqf is a donation of
Page 50 and 51: 48 The Putney Debates “Agreement
Page 52 and 53: 50 Religion The origins of laïcit
Page 54 and 55: 52 Clergy, which redrew regional cl
Page 56: 54 be forced to acknowledge the imp
Page 59 and 60: 57 Democracy itself was created in
Page 61 and 62: 59 evident in 1787 and continues to
Page 63 and 64: 61 battle’, which resulted in Hen
Page 65 and 66: 63 Henry V certainly drew authority
Page 67: 65 his initial promises, Czechoslov
Page 70 and 71: 68 Abacuses were something of a new
Page 72 and 73: 70 However, he seems to be more of
Page 74 and 75: 72 Mathematics and Economics How la
Page 78: 76 nevertheless been considered mas
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