Spain and the United States - Real Instituto Elcano

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LOOKING AHEAD 133 Exhibit 7.8 Increase in Production Capacity, by Sectors (2004) by 10%-20%, while only 8% were for increases of more than 50%. The main increases in capacity were in the food, chemicals-pharmaceuticals, information society and electrical and electronic material sectors (see Exhibit 7.8). Only 27% of the companies, mostly in the services sector, said they planned to invest more than in 2004 (see Exhibit 7.9). Almost two-thirds of the companies said they were “pessimistic” about creating employment in the medium term. One measure that the government can easily take to make the economy more attractive, particularly for American companies, is to cut the corporate income tax rate, which at 35% is almost the highest in Europe and well above the 28% rate in the United States (see Exhibit 7.10). While Spanish and foreign companies alike would readily welcome the reduction, in itself it would do little to make Spain more competitive. Spain’s demographics are much more positive today than just a few years ago. As a result of one of the world’s lowest fertility rates and little Exhibit 7.9 Investment Plans for 2005
134 SPAIN AND THE UNITED STATES Exhibit 7.10 Average Corporate Income Tax Rates (%)* immigration, Spain’s population hardly increased during the 1990s and it was rapidly ageing. This led the United Nations Population Division to forecast a fall from 39.9 million in 2000 to 31.2 million in 2050. Declining populations and ageing are Europe-wide phenomena, but the trends in Spain were more acute. As the European Commission’s Green Paper (March 2005) on confronting demographic change states, “never in history has there been economic growth without population growth”. The more people that can potentially engage in economic activity the larger a country’s potential output. The situation in Spain is changing as a result of massive immigration (close to 700,000 new immigrants in 2002, 370,000 in 2003, 650,000 in 2004 and probably around the same number in 2005). Spain is receiving more immigrants than any other EU country. The population was officially 44.3 million in July 2005. The demographic factor is now one of the main engines of the country’s economic expansion and has helped to sustain it for an exceptionally long period. The number of births in 2004 (453,278) was the highest since 1985, and one in every seven babies had a foreign mother. The fertility rate has been inching up, and at 1.32 was the highest since 1993. The future population scenario, however, is very confusing because of widely different forecasts by Eurostat, the EU’s statistical institution, and Spain’s National Statistical Office (INE). The difference between the two institutions’ estimates of Spain’s population in 2050 is a stunning 10 million people. 9 According to Eurostat, the population that year will be 43 million, less than it is today, as it will peak at 46 million in 2030 and then decline. INE’s figure is 53 million in 2050. Eurostat probably underestimates the potential for 9. See Spain’s Population: The Bigger the Better? Ways of Guessing the Future by Rickard Sandell (Elcano Royal Institute ARI 58/2005, www.realinstitutoelcano.org/analisis/736.asp).
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Spain and the United States The Que
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Published by the Real Instituto Elc
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This is the third
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CONTENTS Preface ..................
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PREFACE Once again, our long-time c
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CHAPTER 1 OVERVIEW Had it not been
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OVERVIEW 13 French of more than two
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OVERVIEW 15 committed Protestant, a
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OVERVIEW 17 money was used to purch
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OVERVIEW 19 Later, the runway at Ro
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OVERVIEW 21 a much more balanced re
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OVERVIEW 23 The position of the Eis
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OVERVIEW 25 The first such school i
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OVERVIEW 27 significant proportion.
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OVERVIEW 29 3,631 in 2003 (the four
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OVERVIEW 31 forces were not happy a
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OVERVIEW 33 It is fair to say that,
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OVERVIEW 35 sovereign Basque state)
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OVERVIEW 37 by those countries for
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OVERVIEW 39 was the main instigator
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OVERVIEW 41 magnitude needed in a
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OVERVIEW 43 The Spanish decision in
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OVERVIEW 45 There was a flurry of v
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54 Some US companies in Spain SPAIN
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62 SPAIN AND THE UNITED STATES $279
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72 Exhibit 3.4. Ranking of Banks in
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