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In Pursuit of the Gene

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38 ¨ REVERSION TO THE MEAN<br />

[To view this image, refer to<br />

<strong>the</strong> print version <strong>of</strong> this title.]<br />

Rate <strong>of</strong> regression in hereditary stature.<br />

From Francis Galton, “Regression towards Mediocrity in Hereditary Stature,” Anthropological Miscellanea:<br />

Journal <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Anthropological <strong>In</strong>stitute <strong>of</strong> Great Britain and Ireland 15 (1886): 248.<br />

The new conceptual breakthrough had been to draw <strong>the</strong> straight line<br />

that best approximated <strong>the</strong> data points. This came to be known as <strong>the</strong> regression<br />

line. The slope <strong>of</strong> this line—<strong>the</strong> line on <strong>the</strong> graph labeled “Children”—<br />

measures how closely children resemble <strong>the</strong>ir parents. It is now called <strong>the</strong><br />

regression coefficient. A line inclined at 45 degrees results if <strong>the</strong> adult children<br />

are on average identical to <strong>the</strong>ir parents. This is <strong>the</strong> line (with a slope <strong>of</strong> 1)<br />

labeled “Mid-parents.” The more closely progeny resemble <strong>the</strong> population<br />

mean and <strong>the</strong> less closely <strong>the</strong>y resemble <strong>the</strong>ir own parents, <strong>the</strong> flatter <strong>the</strong>

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