Sicherheit und Risiko

ESPRIT St.Gallen Business Review
21st Century Risks
How to Deal with a
Global Shift of Powers
Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg
Bundesverteidigungsminister a.D., Bundeswirtschaftsminister a.D. &
Distinguished Statesmen at the CSIS, Washington, DC
The wind of change is sweeping across our
continents and the tectonic plates are shifting.
For two decades now, we have been witnessing
unprecedented change in our world’s
geopolitical architecture.
«We are facing a
significant number of
challenges and risks.
Four major
developments - global
governance failures,
the global shift of
powers,global political
awakening and
economic disparity -
influence the
evolution of a variety
of other global risks.»
We are facing a significant number of challenges
and risks. Four major developments - global governance
failures, the global shift of powers, global political awakening
and economic disparity - influence the evolution
of a variety of other global risks and, ironically, a considerable
number of those risks can further magnify the
four overarching developments.
Some major risk clusters are well known, implying
many different geopolitical, economic and societal risks
as well as environmental and technological risks. Most
of them are tightly connected to each other, intertwined
and often overlap into other clusters.
Two banal examples: The consequences of the global
climate change may result in conflicts over natural
resources or settlement areas. And this will also have
effects for our concept of security policy. Second, failed
states also pose a threat to the entire civilized world. If
left unchecked, terrorism, the proliferation of weapons
of mass destruction, organized crime or even piracy
would have dangerous implications for and a destabilizing
effect on the international order. Our concern
must be to spot risks, assess them correctly and find
appropriate answers to them.
Certainly, the intensive change is also creating
huge chances. The new technologies, the advances in
medicine, the internet or astronautics may illustrate
this. Unfortunately, progress undoubtedly can – again
- lead to risks. Our advanced and complex societies are
more vulnerable, say, for attacks on our computer systems.
The global pace has picked up. This has made the
world a smaller place and enables information to flow
in seconds. We experience a clear increase of actors.
We experience integration and collapse. And we experience
and we see that – following the example of the
European Union – regional unions are coming about all
over the place. Furthermore, we are witnessing a shift
in power from the Atlantic to the Pacific and the Indian
Ocean and if really we have entered a so-called Pacific
Century, then everyone in the world has an interest in
seeing that the process takes place along peaceful and
stable lines.
10
Winter 2012