Sicherheit und Risiko

ESPRIT St.Gallen Business Review
«Although the European
Union is facing a
fundamental crisis, it
is urgently needed as
an internationally reliable
and strong
actor that speaks with
one voice.»
G20, which are also reflecting on the redistribution of
global weights.
Because our resources – including our security
resources – are limited, we must forge close networks
– including security networks. This offers unexploited
potential – across regional, indeed continental boundaries.
We need to intensify our partnerships. China, Brasil,
India, Indonesia – just to name a few - will become
more important for Europe after all. I believe that we
should expand the existing strategic partnerships. Interantional
security policy is an obvious field. It is one
in which the interests of Europe and, say, even China
are often closer than many people think.
There is a saying that forecasts are difficult to make
– particularly when the future is concerned. However,
when we look at tomorrow’s world, I think we can assume
that certain lines of development, at least certain
trends are relatively likely.
«I believe that we
should expand the
existing strategic
partnerships.»
First, the trend towards heterogeneity in the international
order will continue. This heterogeneity will
encompass both state and non-state actors. And in
addition to states, it will feature regional actors with
regional ambitions more. This means that we will face
increasingly demanding challenges in our international
policy. Reconciling interests will not be easier. At the
same time – what a platitude - we live in one world. And
in one world it is important that we are aware of the
consequences of national policy as well as what signals
we send to our neighbours and partners.
Secondly, globalization will further increase in intensity.
The financial crisis has shown us how fragile
international orders can be today. Whilst we will on the
whole benefit more from globalization than suffer due
to its negative effects, the risks associated with the rise
in global interdependence will be quite real.
A third trend is that the need for cooperation – across
regional and continental boundaries – will increase
for the very reason that the new risks will be hard to
calculate. When challenges cannot be stopped at borders,
states will be even less in a position to solve the
attendant problems on their own than they are today.
The effort to establish an international order within
which the dignity of man and fundamental human
rights are observed and the rule of law is ensured has to
unite us all - domestically and internationally.
As the world population grows and is likely to rise
to more than 9 billion by 2050, we are forced to find
answers to all of these challenges.
About the Author
Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg
served as German Federal
Minister of Defense
from 2009 to 2011 and as
Federal Minister of Economics
and Technology from
February 2009 to October
2009. As a “Distinguished
Statesman” at the Center for Strategic and International
Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC, Mr. zu
Guttenberg leads a new high-level transatlantic dialogue
initiative focused on global trends and current
political, economic, financial, as well as technology
issues. Since December 2011, Karl-Theodor
zu Guttenberg serves as Senior Advisor to the European
Commission’s “No Disconnect Strategy”,
providing strategic counsel on how to give ongoing
support to internet users, bloggers and cyber-activists
living under authoritarian regimes.
Mr. zu Guttenberg, who holds a law degree from
the University of Bayreuth, was in the private sector
prior to entering German politics in 2002. He
currently lives with his wife and two daughters in
Greenwich, CT.
12
Winter 2012