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The Economic Value of Water and Ecosystem Preservation

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ecotourism included in the model. <strong>The</strong> output, ecotourism, is equated with the<br />

number <strong>of</strong> visitors to the Aransas National Wildlife Refuge.<br />

<strong>The</strong>re are several problems with using a production function approach to<br />

estimating the value <strong>of</strong> freshwater inflows to the production <strong>of</strong> ecotourism. <strong>The</strong><br />

primary problem is the complex relationship between inflows <strong>and</strong> the status <strong>of</strong><br />

the ecosystem. <strong>The</strong> inflow regime poses particular problems because:<br />

• Inflows are continual rather than applied in discrete amounts;<br />

• Inflows vary across the year with important high <strong>and</strong> low flow periods;<br />

• Inflows experience periods <strong>of</strong> flood <strong>and</strong> drought which are also useful<br />

to maintaining the ecosystem; <strong>and</strong>,<br />

• <strong>The</strong> resulting ecosystem services are not simply an increasing<br />

function <strong>of</strong> freshwater inflows<br />

<strong>The</strong>refore, the present model is viewed as an initial step in addressing this<br />

issue <strong>and</strong> not as a definite conclusion.<br />

<strong>The</strong> estimated tourism-water production function indicated that freshwater<br />

inflows have a positive relationship with visitor numbers up to a flow rate <strong>of</strong> 2,400<br />

cfs. <strong>The</strong> average flow rate from the data was calculated as 1,995 cfs. An<br />

incremental increase <strong>of</strong> 100 cfs was modeled as an increase <strong>of</strong> 25 visitors for an<br />

incremental increase <strong>of</strong> $12,700 in eco-tourism expenditures. This should be<br />

interpreted as an early indicator that freshwater inflows have a positive impact on<br />

the ecosystem services that tourists use.<br />

Socio-economic Environment <strong>of</strong> the San Antonio Bay<br />

<strong>The</strong> socio-economic environment <strong>of</strong> the San Antonio Bay was examined with<br />

a particular concern on the status <strong>of</strong> the fishing industry. <strong>The</strong> socio-economic<br />

analysis looked at Aransas, Calhoun, <strong>and</strong> Refugio counties. <strong>The</strong> analysis used<br />

Shift-Share analysis <strong>and</strong> input-output analysis.<br />

Shift-Share<br />

Shift-Share analysis was conducted to study the competitiveness <strong>and</strong> growth<br />

<strong>and</strong> decline <strong>of</strong> local industries. This study used employment changes from 2001<br />

to 2005 to identify the sources <strong>of</strong> growth <strong>and</strong> decline in local areas.<br />

Input-output Analysis<br />

Input-output modeling was used to reveal the complete impact on the<br />

economy <strong>of</strong> employment change in a particular sector. <strong>The</strong> input-output model<br />

uses a matrix representation <strong>of</strong> a nation’s (or a region’s) economy to predict how<br />

changes in one industry will affect other industries.<br />

Aransas, Calhoun, <strong>and</strong> Refugio counties have many issues in common <strong>and</strong><br />

several that are unique to the county itself. Fishing employment in Aransas has<br />

eroded at a much faster rate during the time period under study than Calhoun. A<br />

negative competitive share in Aransas <strong>and</strong> zero value for Calhoun suggests that<br />

the county does not have a comparative advantage in this sector. Given that the<br />

vii

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