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Table 8.19: Deformation Results from Numerical Model Analyses with River Elevation at the Crest<br />

AEROPUERTO (0.12g) LONG VALLEY DAM (0.29g)<br />

Horizontal Vertical Horizontal Vertical<br />

DISPLACEMENT<br />

Displacement Displacement Displacement Displacement<br />

LOCATION<br />

(cm)<br />

(cm)<br />

(cm)<br />

(cm)<br />

Bottom of bench -0.7 -0.1 -2.0 -1.0<br />

Top of bench -15.7 -1.0 -33.5 -2.0<br />

North bottom of embankment -53.3 7.3 -55.6 3.1<br />

North top of embankment -47.6 -49.3 -42.4 -54.4<br />

South top of embankment 29.7 -11.9 38.5 -17.1<br />

South bottom of embankment 38.3 11.7 50.2 18.0<br />

Maximum for the embankment -82.4 -53.5 -79.3 -60.1<br />

* Negative horizontal displacements represent movement toward the river and negative vertical<br />

displacements signify settlement.<br />

Two conclusions can be drawn from the results of the numerical modeling. First, the<br />

deformation of the levee gets progressively larger as the river elevation increases. As the<br />

river level increases, the phreatic surface also raises within the levee resulting in the<br />

saturation of more soil. These saturated soils are susceptible to excess pore pressure<br />

generation, resulting in larger levee deformations. Second, the deformations induced by<br />

the Long Valley Dam and Aeropuerto time histories are essentially the same for each<br />

river stage even though their respective PGA and duration values are significantly<br />

different. This indicates that the local shallow crustal earthquakes and subduction zone<br />

earthquakes are equally important for seismic hazard studies in this region.<br />

8.9.4 Comparison of the Methods<br />

Four methods have been utilized to estimate the earthquake-induced deformations of the<br />

Columbia River levee. In general, the simplified procedures for estimating lateral displacements<br />

provide a range of values that can be very useful for preliminary hazard evaluations. However,<br />

the displacements estimated using the Makdisi and Seed method, the Bracketed Intensity<br />

method, and the numerical modeling-based design chart (Figure 7.8) provided a broad range of<br />

values, particularly for cases involving large magnitude earthquakes and very low stability (i.e.,<br />

low values of k y /k max ). The limitations of the Makdisi and Seed methods for these conditions<br />

have been discussed in several references (Makdisi and Seed 1978; Jibson 1993).<br />

Table 8.20 presents a direct comparison between all of the methods using a M w 8.5 earthquake<br />

motion for the three river stages analyzed. This includes the Newmark, Makdisi and Seed, and<br />

Bracketed Intensity analyses that used the time history at elevation 6.4 m. Note that for the three<br />

sliding block based methods, the deformations correspond to the movement of the entire slide<br />

mass (rigid body movement). The deformation for the method developed from the parametric<br />

study represents the maximum deformation. The numerical model displacement is the horizontal<br />

displacement of the north top of the levee (embankment).<br />

181

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