65th IHC Booklet/Program (pdf - 4.9MB) - Office of the Federal ...

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Sensitivities of air-ocean-wave coupling on the prediction of Hurricanes Frances and Ivan Sue Chen 1 , Travis Smith 2 , Saša Gaberšek 1 , Tim Campbell 2 , Shouping Wang 1 , James Doyle 1 , and Rick Allard 2 1 Marine Science Division, Monterey 2 Oceanography Division, Stennis Naval Research Laboratory A series of model runs were conducted to exam the sensitivities of air-ocean-wave coupling on the intensity and structure change of hurricanes Frances and Ivan as well as the associated ocean and wave response. The hurricane model used for this study is the newly developed six-way airocean-wave fully coupled COAMPS-TC. The coupling is achieved using the Earth System Modeling Framework to couple the COAMPS-TC with the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) and Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN). Special in situ measurements of atmosphere, ocean, and wave during the Coupled Boundary Layer Air-Sea Transfer Experiment (CBLAS) field campaign sponsored by the Office of Naval Research were used to validate the model results. For the simulations of Hurricane Frances, it is found using a higher resolution ocean grid improved the magnitude of the trailing cold sea surface temperature anomaly forced by the hurricane. The forecast sea temperature bias below the ocean mixed layer was further reduced when the high-resolution ocean model initial condition was improved using the ocean data assimilation in the ocean spin-up period. In addition, the significant wave height bias was reduced if using the level-off wind stress value from CBLAS instead of the original generation 3 wind source term in SWAN. Including the wave feedback to the atmosphere also produced a much higher value of momentum drag near the eyewall region. The overall intensity and track forecast differences between the uncoupled and various coupled runs (one to six-way coupling) were found to be as large as 18 m/s and 10 nautical miles, respectively. For the hurricane Ivan study, a special ADCP data array collected by NRL is also used to evaluate the shallow and deep water current response. Including the wave Stokes’s drift, wave radiation stress, and wave bottom stress feedback improved the complex correlation coefficients and mean directional error for the ocean current. The wave spectrum comparison between SWAN and Scanning Radar Altimeter showed SWAN generated too much energy in long waves which in turns produced a larger significant wave height bias. These preliminary results indicate a more consistent treatment of momentum stress, sensible heat flux, and latent heat flux at the air-sea interface may be needed in order to improve the forecast of the hurricane environment. The development of a new unified air-sea interface module jointly with NOAA, University of Miami, and University of Rhode Island founded by National Oceanographic Partnership Program is discussed. Poster Session – Page 12
Developing an Atlantic Ocean initialization based on the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) product for the operational GFDL and GFDN hurricane models Richard Yablonsky, Isaac Ginis, Seunghyon Lee, and Biju Thomas (ryablonsky@gso.uri.edu) Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island Currently, NOAA’s operational GFDL hurricane model and the U.S. Navy’s operational GFDN hurricane model use a feature-based modeling technique along with the U.S. Navy’s Global Data Environmental Model (GDEM) monthly climatology for ocean initialization in the western North Atlantic basin. In other worldwide ocean basins, the GFDN hurricane model uses the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) daily product for ocean initialization. Here, we will discuss the development an NCODA-based ocean initialization for the western North Atlantic basin and evaluate its performance against the feature-based/GDEM initialization with the ultimate goal of determining whether or not it is advantageous to replace the featurebased/GDEM initialization with the NCODA-based initialization in the Atlantic basin in the GFDL and/or GFDN hurricane models. Poster Session – Page 13
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65th Interdepartmental Hurricane Co
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The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
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2010 Atlantic and Eastern North Pac
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A Review of the Joint Typhoon Warni
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NOAA Aircraft Operations Center (AO
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Microwave sounder observations duri
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The 2010 GOES-R Proving Ground at t
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Developments in 2010 in in-flight r
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Surface-Reflected GPS Wind Speed Se
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Real-Time Airborne Ocean Measuremen
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WISDOM Intensity Program - Weather
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A Two-Dimensional Velocity Dealiasi
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Establishing an Improved National C
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Advancements to the Operational HWR
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2011 operational HWRF model upgrade
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An Overview of COAMPS-TC Developmen
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Evaluation and Improvement of Ocean
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Prediction of Consensus TC Track Fo
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Large ensemble tropical cyclone int
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Evaluation and Development of Ensem
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Ensemble-based prediction and diagn
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Technology Transfer in Tropical Cyc
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Hurricane Intensity and Structure R
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Evaluation and Improvements of Clou
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Tropical Cyclone Inner-core Diagnos
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S E S Session 9 ITOP/TCS-10: Couple
Page 66 and 67: Multi-scale Observations of Cloud C
Page 68 and 69: Pre-Genesis Monitoring of the 3-D A
Page 70 and 71: Ocean observations in developing an
Page 72 and 73: Multi-Model Coupled Air-Sea Forecas
Page 75 and 76: Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel
Page 77 and 78: 2011 Plans for NOAA’s Intensity F
Page 79 and 80: Airborne Surface Water and Ocean To
Page 81 and 82: In this study we go further and per
Page 83: Intraseasonal to Seasonal Predictio
Page 87 and 88: International Best Track Archive fo
Page 89 and 90: Improvements to Statistical Intensi
Page 91 and 92: Improving SHIPS Rapid Intensificati
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Page 96 and 97: Enhancements to the SHIPS Rapid Int
Page 98 and 99: Advanced Applications of Monte Carl
Page 100 and 101: ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consen
Page 102 and 103: Tools for Coordinating Aircraft Dur
Page 105 and 106: Real-time radar processing in the 2
Page 107 and 108: Improved Hurricane-force Surface Wi
Page 109 and 110: Wide Swath Radar Altimeter (WSRA) W
Page 111 and 112: Direct Interpretation of COSMIC Ref
Page 113 and 114: Coupled Air-Sea Observations in Tro
Page 115: Assimilating COSMIC GPS RO data for
Page 119 and 120: Improving Ocean Model Performance i
Page 121 and 122: HWRF Model Diagnostic Improvements
Page 123 and 124: A highly configurable vortex initia
Page 125 and 126: An Update on the Status of FNMOC Pr
Page 127 and 128: Diagnosing initial condition sensit
Page 129 and 130: Objective Diagnosis of the Eyewall
Page 131 and 132: Quantitative Comparison of Precipit
Page 133 and 134: Vertical Wind Shear Impacts on Hurr
Page 135 and 136: Hurricanes: Science and Society - a
Page 137 and 138: SATellite Intensity CONsensus (SATC
Page 139 and 140: What might a global TC reanalysis p
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65th IHC Booklet/Program (pdf - 4.9MB) - Office of the Federal ...

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