65th IHC Booklet/Program (pdf - 4.9MB) - Office of the Federal ...

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Validation of Coupled Hurricane Atmosphere – Ocean Model (HyHWRF) Hyun-Sook Kim, D. Iredell, Y. Kwon, L. Liu, Q. Liu, C. Lozano, J. O’Connor, J. Sims, V. Tallapragada, B. Tuleya, Z. Zhan (hyun.sook.kim@noaa.gov) NOAA/NCEP/EMC Under a goal toward the next generation of operational HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting) Model, a collaboration effort has been made for the past years between the Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch and HWRF teams to build a framework of state-ofthe-art hurricane prediction model. HyHWRF includes air-sea interactive processes explicitly by coupling the atmospheric hurricane model HWRF to the ocean model HYCOM. In addition to the necessity of adopting physics-driven ocean model to provide a better realization of mesoscale sea surface temperature, for example, a motivation of the effort is to utilize unique leverage that is offered by our organization NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction). The hurricane HYCOM is nested to eddy-resolving, Atlantic basin model, RTOFS (Real-Time Ocean Forecast System). NCEP runs RTOFS daily in real-time, using data assimilation including remote-sensing, in-situ and moored measurements, and generates ocean products such as sea surface temperature and sub-ocean properties. This infrastructure provides tremendous efficiency to coupled system in running in real-time, owing to streamline supply of initial and boundary conditions. Since the HyHWRF system has reached to a maturity in 2008, hundreds of the Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) predictions have been performed. Also have been conducted in parallel to operational HWRF real-time forecast and operational implementation test each year. The results exhibit a comparable or better forecast skill to operational HWRF. This poster documents validation of ocean simulations. Sea surface temperature, upper ocean structure as well as ocean cooling are evaluated against available data including AXBT (Airborne eXpendable Bathy Thermograph), AVHRR and AMSR-E remote-sensing data. Poster Session – Page 16
HWRF Model Diagnostic Improvements Janna O’Connor and Vijay Tallapragada (janna.oconnor@noaa.gov) NOAA/NCEP/EMC The hurricane team at EMC works to continually improve the HWRF model for each hurricane season. A crucial way of determining model behavior and potential areas of improvement is through the HWRF diagnostics suite. The evolution of the HWRF model diagnostics will be detailed, specifically the previous season’s inclusion of model-simulated GOES infrared and water vapor images. Potential upgrades for the 2011 hurricane season are described and involve a diagnostic module comparing three models side by side through vertical cross sections of relative humidity and wind speed, streamlines, and surface winds. The use of a new module that retrieves relevant pressure level data from model grib files and inserts them into an easy-to-read text file will also be explained. These upgrades coupled with the HWRF realtime statistics website will provide a new basis to assess model behavior and pinpoint areas of improvement with the goal of making HWRF updates more efficient and effective. Poster Session – Page 17
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65th Interdepartmental Hurricane Co
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The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
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2010 Atlantic and Eastern North Pac
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A Review of the Joint Typhoon Warni
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NOAA Aircraft Operations Center (AO
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Microwave sounder observations duri
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The 2010 GOES-R Proving Ground at t
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Developments in 2010 in in-flight r
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Surface-Reflected GPS Wind Speed Se
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Real-Time Airborne Ocean Measuremen
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WISDOM Intensity Program - Weather
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A Two-Dimensional Velocity Dealiasi
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Establishing an Improved National C
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Advancements to the Operational HWR
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2011 operational HWRF model upgrade
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An Overview of COAMPS-TC Developmen
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Evaluation and Improvement of Ocean
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Prediction of Consensus TC Track Fo
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Large ensemble tropical cyclone int
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Evaluation and Development of Ensem
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Ensemble-based prediction and diagn
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Technology Transfer in Tropical Cyc
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Hurricane Intensity and Structure R
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Evaluation and Improvements of Clou
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Tropical Cyclone Inner-core Diagnos
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S E S Session 9 ITOP/TCS-10: Couple
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Multi-scale Observations of Cloud C
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Pre-Genesis Monitoring of the 3-D A
Page 70 and 71: Ocean observations in developing an
Page 72 and 73: Multi-Model Coupled Air-Sea Forecas
Page 75 and 76: Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel
Page 77 and 78: 2011 Plans for NOAA’s Intensity F
Page 79 and 80: Airborne Surface Water and Ocean To
Page 81 and 82: In this study we go further and per
Page 83: Intraseasonal to Seasonal Predictio
Page 87 and 88: International Best Track Archive fo
Page 89 and 90: Improvements to Statistical Intensi
Page 91 and 92: Improving SHIPS Rapid Intensificati
Page 93: S E S Session 12 Joint Hurricane Te
Page 96 and 97: Enhancements to the SHIPS Rapid Int
Page 98 and 99: Advanced Applications of Monte Carl
Page 100 and 101: ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consen
Page 102 and 103: Tools for Coordinating Aircraft Dur
Page 105 and 106: Real-time radar processing in the 2
Page 107 and 108: Improved Hurricane-force Surface Wi
Page 109 and 110: Wide Swath Radar Altimeter (WSRA) W
Page 111 and 112: Direct Interpretation of COSMIC Ref
Page 113 and 114: Coupled Air-Sea Observations in Tro
Page 115 and 116: Assimilating COSMIC GPS RO data for
Page 117 and 118: Developing an Atlantic Ocean initia
Page 119: Improving Ocean Model Performance i
Page 123 and 124: A highly configurable vortex initia
Page 125 and 126: An Update on the Status of FNMOC Pr
Page 127 and 128: Diagnosing initial condition sensit
Page 129 and 130: Objective Diagnosis of the Eyewall
Page 131 and 132: Quantitative Comparison of Precipit
Page 133 and 134: Vertical Wind Shear Impacts on Hurr
Page 135 and 136: Hurricanes: Science and Society - a
Page 137 and 138: SATellite Intensity CONsensus (SATC
Page 139 and 140: What might a global TC reanalysis p
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65th IHC Booklet/Program (pdf - 4.9MB) - Office of the Federal ...

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