65th IHC Booklet/Program (pdf - 4.9MB) - Office of the Federal ...

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Issues in transitioning HWRF upgrades into operations at EMC A Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) Program Robert E. Tuleya, Young Kwon, Vijay Tallapragada, Zhan Zhang, Yihua Wu, Qingfu Liu, and J. O’Connor (Robert.tuleya@noaa.gov) CCPO/ODU The 2010-2011 JHT project funded through the Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography (CCPO) at Old Dominion University (ODU) has concentrated on HWRF development, its operational implementation, and recent upgrades. Over the last year emphasis on this project has been on trouble shooting problems involving model biases of intensity and issues involving land interaction. The long-standing HWRF problem with unrealistic, cold land surface temperatures was corrected with the 2010 forecast system. Some further analysis and possible refinements to these land-related issues will be discussed in addition to refinements in the new HWRF surface flux package. A new surface flux package based on observations was implemented for the 2010 season that has in part contributed to some improvements of track and intensity in HWRF. This new 2010 surface flux package has been further examined and contrasted with packages used in other operational models. Furthermore, this new package was generalized and recast in terms of momentum and thermal roughness lengths. This new revised code has been installed in the new HWRF V3 model version to be installed for 2011 operations. Some comparisons will be shown in running the HWRF model using different flavors of the new formulation. In order to quantify the impact of using a more sophisticated land model, i.e. the NOAH LSM, HWRF underwent extensive testing in 2010. These tests including running the operational system, H210, both for numerous historical cases of 2008-2009 and for nearly 300 cases in real-time for the 2010 Atlantic season. Besides using the NOAH LSM surface option, the tests also included changes to the operational system to allow more frequent output of surface and sub-surface runnoff - a requiremnt for a stream routing model. The standard verification parameters of mean track and intenity errors were applied to these suite of cases. As opposed to prelimiary results using a previous HWRF model version, the 20120 HWRF version with the NOAH LSM option led to some degradation in both track and intensity at some forecast times. These results will be shown. Further issues with the proposed 2011 HWRF version involving the transition from WRF 2 to WRF3 will also be shown. Session 5 – Page 2
2011 operational HWRF model upgrades Young Kwon, Vijay Tallaparagada, Robert Tuleya, Qingfu Liu, Kevin Yeh, Zhan Zhang, Sam Trahan and Janna O’Connor (Young.Kwon@noaa.gov) EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA The hurricane model team at EMC/NCEP is working on upgrade of the operational HWRF model for the year 2011 hurricane season. There are three main components of the upgrades, which are 1) modified vortex initialization method, 2) new deep convection parameterization with revised surface physics and 3) bug fixed of microphysics and radiation in addition to dynamic core upgrade to NMM v3.2. The preliminary results indicate that the initialization and physics upgrades improve the accuracy of intensity and track forecast of HWRF model respectively while the bug fixes do not impact the skill of the model significantly. Especially, the new initialization scheme significantly improve the intensity forecast skill of 0-48 hour forecast ranges with maximum about 25% compare to the old method. The test cases, detailed explanations of upgrades will be presented during the conference. Session 5 – Page 3
Page 1: 65th Interdepartmental Hurricane Co
Page 5 and 6: The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Page 7 and 8: 2010 Atlantic and Eastern North Pac
Page 9 and 10: A Review of the Joint Typhoon Warni
Page 11: NOAA Aircraft Operations Center (AO
Page 15 and 16: Microwave sounder observations duri
Page 17 and 18: The 2010 GOES-R Proving Ground at t
Page 19 and 20: Developments in 2010 in in-flight r
Page 21: Surface-Reflected GPS Wind Speed Se
Page 25 and 26: Real-Time Airborne Ocean Measuremen
Page 27 and 28: WISDOM Intensity Program - Weather
Page 29 and 30: A Two-Dimensional Velocity Dealiasi
Page 31: Establishing an Improved National C
Page 35: Advancements to the Operational HWR
Page 39 and 40: An Overview of COAMPS-TC Developmen
Page 41: Evaluation and Improvement of Ocean
Page 45 and 46: Prediction of Consensus TC Track Fo
Page 47 and 48: Large ensemble tropical cyclone int
Page 49 and 50: Evaluation and Development of Ensem
Page 51: Ensemble-based prediction and diagn
Page 55 and 56: Technology Transfer in Tropical Cyc
Page 57 and 58: Hurricane Intensity and Structure R
Page 59 and 60: Evaluation and Improvements of Clou
Page 61 and 62: Tropical Cyclone Inner-core Diagnos
Page 63: S E S Session 9 ITOP/TCS-10: Couple
Page 66 and 67: Multi-scale Observations of Cloud C
Page 68 and 69: Pre-Genesis Monitoring of the 3-D A
Page 70 and 71: Ocean observations in developing an
Page 72 and 73: Multi-Model Coupled Air-Sea Forecas
Page 75 and 76: Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel
Page 77 and 78: 2011 Plans for NOAA’s Intensity F
Page 79 and 80: Airborne Surface Water and Ocean To
Page 81 and 82: In this study we go further and per
Page 83: Intraseasonal to Seasonal Predictio
Page 87 and 88:
International Best Track Archive fo
Page 89 and 90:
Improvements to Statistical Intensi
Page 91 and 92:
Improving SHIPS Rapid Intensificati
Page 93:
S E S Session 12 Joint Hurricane Te
Page 96 and 97:
Enhancements to the SHIPS Rapid Int
Page 98 and 99:
Advanced Applications of Monte Carl
Page 100 and 101:
ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consen
Page 102 and 103:
Tools for Coordinating Aircraft Dur
Page 105 and 106:
Real-time radar processing in the 2
Page 107 and 108:
Improved Hurricane-force Surface Wi
Page 109 and 110:
Wide Swath Radar Altimeter (WSRA) W
Page 111 and 112:
Direct Interpretation of COSMIC Ref
Page 113 and 114:
Coupled Air-Sea Observations in Tro
Page 115 and 116:
Assimilating COSMIC GPS RO data for
Page 117 and 118:
Developing an Atlantic Ocean initia
Page 119 and 120:
Improving Ocean Model Performance i
Page 121 and 122:
HWRF Model Diagnostic Improvements
Page 123 and 124:
A highly configurable vortex initia
Page 125 and 126:
An Update on the Status of FNMOC Pr
Page 127 and 128:
Diagnosing initial condition sensit
Page 129 and 130:
Objective Diagnosis of the Eyewall
Page 131 and 132:
Quantitative Comparison of Precipit
Page 133 and 134:
Vertical Wind Shear Impacts on Hurr
Page 135 and 136:
Hurricanes: Science and Society - a
Page 137 and 138:
SATellite Intensity CONsensus (SATC
Page 139 and 140:
What might a global TC reanalysis p
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65th IHC Booklet/Program (pdf - 4.9MB) - Office of the Federal ...

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