65th IHC Booklet/Program (pdf - 4.9MB) - Office of the Federal ...

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Forecasting Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Using TRMM/TMI 37 GHz Microwave Signal Tie Yuan 1 , Haiyan Jiang 1 , and Margaret Kieper 2 (tyuan@fiu.edu) 1 Department of Earth & Environment, Florida International University; 2 Private Consultant The prediction of rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones has always been a great challenge in tropical weather forecasting. Compared with the progress in RI forecast in the Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific, there are few works in RI forecast in the Western North Pacific. Following Margie Kieper’s subjective forecast method using the 37 GHz color product developed by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) to predict the onset of RI, we have developed an automated detection method, 37 GHz ring pattern RI index, to identify the cyancolor ring pattern around the center of tropical cyclones from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) 37 GHz observations (please see the abstract by Jiang et al. in the same conference). In this study, this ring pattern RI index is applied to the 12- yr TRMM Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Features (TCPFs) database to investigate the probability of improving RI forecast in the Western North Pacific. The result shows that the probability of detection (POD) of RI for storms reaching tropical storm intensity in the Western North Pacific is about 63%. Furthermore, it is found that the greater the intensity of tropical cyclones is, the larger the POD. The PODs are 40%, 75%, and 100% for tropical storms, typhoons, and super typhoons, respectively. Our technique uses the 37-GHz ring feature in the storm’s inner core, therefore it counts the effects of storm internal processes on intensity change. However, large-scale environmental conditions are the controlling factors of intensity change. We plan to use the environmental factors such as SST and wind shear to screen out those ring cases with unfavorable environmental conditions. The work is underway to generate environmental RI index similar to STIPS using the ECMWF INTERIM reanalysis data. The environmental RI index will be incorporated into the 37 GHz ring pattern RI index to further advance the RI forecast skill in the Western North Pacific. Session 11 – Page 6
S E S Session 12 Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Updates and Improved Products S I O N 12
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65th Interdepartmental Hurricane Co
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The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
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2010 Atlantic and Eastern North Pac
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A Review of the Joint Typhoon Warni
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NOAA Aircraft Operations Center (AO
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Microwave sounder observations duri
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The 2010 GOES-R Proving Ground at t
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Developments in 2010 in in-flight r
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Surface-Reflected GPS Wind Speed Se
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Real-Time Airborne Ocean Measuremen
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WISDOM Intensity Program - Weather
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A Two-Dimensional Velocity Dealiasi
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Establishing an Improved National C
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Advancements to the Operational HWR
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2011 operational HWRF model upgrade
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An Overview of COAMPS-TC Developmen
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Page 47 and 48: Large ensemble tropical cyclone int
Page 49 and 50: Evaluation and Development of Ensem
Page 51: Ensemble-based prediction and diagn
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Page 57 and 58: Hurricane Intensity and Structure R
Page 59 and 60: Evaluation and Improvements of Clou
Page 61 and 62: Tropical Cyclone Inner-core Diagnos
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Page 72 and 73: Multi-Model Coupled Air-Sea Forecas
Page 75 and 76: Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel
Page 77 and 78: 2011 Plans for NOAA’s Intensity F
Page 79 and 80: Airborne Surface Water and Ocean To
Page 81 and 82: In this study we go further and per
Page 83: Intraseasonal to Seasonal Predictio
Page 87 and 88: International Best Track Archive fo
Page 89 and 90: Improvements to Statistical Intensi
Page 91: Improving SHIPS Rapid Intensificati
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Page 98 and 99: Advanced Applications of Monte Carl
Page 100 and 101: ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consen
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Page 105 and 106: Real-time radar processing in the 2
Page 107 and 108: Improved Hurricane-force Surface Wi
Page 109 and 110: Wide Swath Radar Altimeter (WSRA) W
Page 111 and 112: Direct Interpretation of COSMIC Ref
Page 113 and 114: Coupled Air-Sea Observations in Tro
Page 115 and 116: Assimilating COSMIC GPS RO data for
Page 117 and 118: Developing an Atlantic Ocean initia
Page 119 and 120: Improving Ocean Model Performance i
Page 121 and 122: HWRF Model Diagnostic Improvements
Page 123 and 124: A highly configurable vortex initia
Page 125 and 126: An Update on the Status of FNMOC Pr
Page 127 and 128: Diagnosing initial condition sensit
Page 129 and 130: Objective Diagnosis of the Eyewall
Page 131 and 132: Quantitative Comparison of Precipit
Page 133 and 134: Vertical Wind Shear Impacts on Hurr
Page 135 and 136: Hurricanes: Science and Society - a
Page 137 and 138: SATellite Intensity CONsensus (SATC
Page 139 and 140: What might a global TC reanalysis p
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