65th IHC Booklet/Program (pdf - 4.9MB) - Office of the Federal ...

Evaluating Experimental Models for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting in Support of the
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)
Paul A. Kucera, Barb G. Brown, Louisa Nance, Christopher L. Williams, Kathryn Crosby, and
Michelle Harrold
(pkucera@ucar.edu)
National Center for Atmospheric Research/ Research Applications Laboratory
In 2009, the National Center for Atmospheric Science (NCAR)/Research Applications
Laboratory’s (RALs) Joint Numerical Testbed (JNT) Program formed a new entity called the
Tropical Cyclone Modeling Team (TCMT). The focus of this team is testing and evaluation of
experimental models for tropical cyclone forecasting. TCMT evaluations may include models
that are either in earlier stages of development or may not be intended for future operational
application in the U.S. Much of this effort is sponsored by NOAA's Hurricane Forecast
Improvement Project (HFIP). For the HFIP, the TCMT designs model evaluation experiments
and provides general testing and evaluation of the various forecast models included in the HFIP
annual forecasting demonstrations and retrospective experiments. Utilizing staff expertise in
forecast verification, statistics, and atmospheric sciences, the TCMT is developing statistical
approaches that are appropriate for evaluating a variety of tropical cyclone forecast attributes.
These methods include new diagnostic tools to aid, for example, in the evaluation of track and
intensity errors, precipitation and tropical cyclone structure forecasts. The TCMT also supports
HFIP through other activities such as communicating results and providing a repository of model
output and diagnostic information through a web-based data service site. The data service site
will include model forecasts and some observational datasets as well as links and pointers to
additional observational datasets. During 2010, the TCMT conducted an evaluation of a suite of
experimental models that were candidates for future inclusion into the operational forecasting
system at the National Hurricane Center (NHC). This retrospective analysis was conducted
using a subset storms selected by NHC from the 2008 and 2009 tropical storms and hurricanes
observed in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins. In summary, the TCMT focuses on
developing new methods for the evaluation of hurricanes, on the evaluation of experimental
model forecasts for the annual HFIP retrospective and demonstration experiments, and on
developing a hurricane database from these studies. An overview of TCMT activities along
with a summary of results from the 2010 retrospective analysis will be given in the presentation.
Poster Session – Page 18