65th IHC Booklet/Program (pdf - 4.9MB) - Office of the Federal ...

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The influence of cyclones on the BP oil spill Pat Fitzpatrick, Yee Lau, Chris Hill, and Haldun Karan (fitz@gri.msstate.edu) Geosystems Research Institute, Mississippi State University The Deepwater Horizon oil spill impacted the Mississippi River Delta, Barataria Bay, the barrier islands east of Louisiana, and the Alabama and Florida coast for an extended period of time from May through July. However, the Rigolets and western Mississippi coast were impacted for a briefer period from late June to early July. An important component to understanding the oil transport is to distinguish the influences behind this apex moment. A simulation was conducted for the period 20 June to 10 July 2010 to understand this inland transport. The simulation was based on a Lagrangian particle tracker with random walk diffusion. Input consisted of latitude and longitude positions of oil-contaminated parcels, wind, current, and a large array of random numbers. In addition, new parcels were released at the damaged Macondo rig location at each time step. Twenty-five parcels are released at each position, and when combined with the diffusion coefficient (set to 10m 2 s -1 ), resulted in a realistic spread of the parcels with time. The initial parcel locations were subjectively determined based on a combination of NASA MODIS satellite imagery, SAR imagery, NOAA oil trajectory maps, and the NOAA/NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) experimental surface oil analysis. The parcels were advected at 80% of the ocean current speed and at 3% of the wind speed. Bilinear interpolation was applied every timestep to determine the currents and winds at each parcel. The pseudo-random numbers were uniformly distributed between 0 and 1 and generated by the Mersenne Twister algorithm. The initial seed was randomly obtained from machine noise. The 10-m wind and near-surface ocean currents were provided from NAVOCEANO’s 3-km Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) in the Intra-Americas Sea (AMSEAS) domain, with atmospheric forcing from COAMPS. The wind forcing was validated against buoys using statistical and vector correlation techniques, concluding that the winds were reasonably accurate. An examination of NCOM data, the oil spill simulation, buoy data, weather reanalysis maps, tide gauge data, scatterometer data, and HF radar currents show that two weather systems altered the currents and water levels such that oil was pushed into the western Mississippi Sound and the Rigolets. An easterly wind fetch from intensifying Hurricane Alex provided the first inland push, followed by a westward-drifting non-tropical low which had formed off the western edge of a Gulf cold front. In both cases, a weak pressure gradient was replaced by strong easterly winds which not only switched alongshore westerly coastal currents to an easterly direction, but also increased inland water levels by 0.6-0.8 m as mini-surge events. These results showed that cyclones can dramatically alter oil transport, even by fringe effects. The study also showed that this modeling formulation was capable of reproducing the oil spill transport and is being used in follow-up BP research. Poster Session – Page 32
SATellite Intensity CONsensus (SATCON) Evaluation and Recent Changes Derrick Herndon 1 , Chris Velden 1 , Jeffrey Hawkins 2 1 Univ. Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS); 2 Naval Research Laboratory - Monterey The SATellite CONsensus (SATCON) algorithm developed at CIMSS objectively combines Tropical Cyclone (TC) intensity estimates analyzed from satellite infrared and microwave-based methods to produce a weighted consensus estimate which is more skillful than the individual members. SATCON provides the TC forecaster with the ability to quickly reconcile differences in objective intensity methods, and as a comparative guidance tool for evaluating subjective Dvorak estimates. Real-time SATCON estimates have been provided to NHC, BOM and JTWC along with other TC forecast agencies as part of a demonstration phase since the 2008 TC season. Current members of SATCON include the CIMSS ADT along with the CIMSS and CIRA AMSU algorithms. Each member of SATCON is weighted based on that member’s performance in a given situation (eye size, intensity, infrared scene type, etc.). Separate weights are used for minimum pressure and maximum wind estimates. The SATCON algorithm logic and weighting structures were developed using coincident reconnaissance aircraft data from storms in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific and Western Pacific. To date, we have accrued 562 cases when all three SATCON members were available and matched up with recon data. This dataset is divided into a dependent development sample, and an independent validation sample using a “leave every other case out” approach. In addition to updating the consensus weight structure as new cases become available, a number of recent changes have been made to further improve the MSW estimates. These upgrades, as well as the resultant performance statistics, will be summarized in the poster. Further information on SATCON can be found at: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/satcon/ Poster Session – Page 33
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65th Interdepartmental Hurricane Co
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The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
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2010 Atlantic and Eastern North Pac
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A Review of the Joint Typhoon Warni
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NOAA Aircraft Operations Center (AO
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Microwave sounder observations duri
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The 2010 GOES-R Proving Ground at t
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Developments in 2010 in in-flight r
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Surface-Reflected GPS Wind Speed Se
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Real-Time Airborne Ocean Measuremen
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WISDOM Intensity Program - Weather
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A Two-Dimensional Velocity Dealiasi
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Establishing an Improved National C
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Advancements to the Operational HWR
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2011 operational HWRF model upgrade
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An Overview of COAMPS-TC Developmen
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Evaluation and Improvement of Ocean
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Prediction of Consensus TC Track Fo
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Large ensemble tropical cyclone int
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Evaluation and Development of Ensem
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Ensemble-based prediction and diagn
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Technology Transfer in Tropical Cyc
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Hurricane Intensity and Structure R
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Evaluation and Improvements of Clou
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Tropical Cyclone Inner-core Diagnos
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S E S Session 9 ITOP/TCS-10: Couple
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Multi-scale Observations of Cloud C
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Pre-Genesis Monitoring of the 3-D A
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Ocean observations in developing an
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Multi-Model Coupled Air-Sea Forecas
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Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel
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2011 Plans for NOAA’s Intensity F
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Airborne Surface Water and Ocean To
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In this study we go further and per
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Intraseasonal to Seasonal Predictio
Page 87 and 88: International Best Track Archive fo
Page 89 and 90: Improvements to Statistical Intensi
Page 91 and 92: Improving SHIPS Rapid Intensificati
Page 93: S E S Session 12 Joint Hurricane Te
Page 96 and 97: Enhancements to the SHIPS Rapid Int
Page 98 and 99: Advanced Applications of Monte Carl
Page 100 and 101: ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consen
Page 102 and 103: Tools for Coordinating Aircraft Dur
Page 105 and 106: Real-time radar processing in the 2
Page 107 and 108: Improved Hurricane-force Surface Wi
Page 109 and 110: Wide Swath Radar Altimeter (WSRA) W
Page 111 and 112: Direct Interpretation of COSMIC Ref
Page 113 and 114: Coupled Air-Sea Observations in Tro
Page 115 and 116: Assimilating COSMIC GPS RO data for
Page 117 and 118: Developing an Atlantic Ocean initia
Page 119 and 120: Improving Ocean Model Performance i
Page 121 and 122: HWRF Model Diagnostic Improvements
Page 123 and 124: A highly configurable vortex initia
Page 125 and 126: An Update on the Status of FNMOC Pr
Page 127 and 128: Diagnosing initial condition sensit
Page 129 and 130: Objective Diagnosis of the Eyewall
Page 131 and 132: Quantitative Comparison of Precipit
Page 133 and 134: Vertical Wind Shear Impacts on Hurr
Page 135: Hurricanes: Science and Society - a
Page 139 and 140: What might a global TC reanalysis p
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65th IHC Booklet/Program (pdf - 4.9MB) - Office of the Federal ...

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