65th IHC Booklet/Program (pdf - 4.9MB) - Office of the Federal ...

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Evaluating Experimental Models for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting in Support of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) Paul A. Kucera, Barb G. Brown, Louisa Nance, Christopher L. Williams, Kathryn Crosby, and Michelle Harrold (pkucera@ucar.edu) National Center for Atmospheric Research/ Research Applications Laboratory In 2009, the National Center for Atmospheric Science (NCAR)/Research Applications Laboratory’s (RALs) Joint Numerical Testbed (JNT) Program formed a new entity called the Tropical Cyclone Modeling Team (TCMT). The focus of this team is testing and evaluation of experimental models for tropical cyclone forecasting. TCMT evaluations may include models that are either in earlier stages of development or may not be intended for future operational application in the U.S. Much of this effort is sponsored by NOAA's Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP). For the HFIP, the TCMT designs model evaluation experiments and provides general testing and evaluation of the various forecast models included in the HFIP annual forecasting demonstrations and retrospective experiments. Utilizing staff expertise in forecast verification, statistics, and atmospheric sciences, the TCMT is developing statistical approaches that are appropriate for evaluating a variety of tropical cyclone forecast attributes. These methods include new diagnostic tools to aid, for example, in the evaluation of track and intensity errors, precipitation and tropical cyclone structure forecasts. The TCMT also supports HFIP through other activities such as communicating results and providing a repository of model output and diagnostic information through a web-based data service site. The data service site will include model forecasts and some observational datasets as well as links and pointers to additional observational datasets. During 2010, the TCMT conducted an evaluation of a suite of experimental models that were candidates for future inclusion into the operational forecasting system at the National Hurricane Center (NHC). This retrospective analysis was conducted using a subset storms selected by NHC from the 2008 and 2009 tropical storms and hurricanes observed in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins. In summary, the TCMT focuses on developing new methods for the evaluation of hurricanes, on the evaluation of experimental model forecasts for the annual HFIP retrospective and demonstration experiments, and on developing a hurricane database from these studies. An overview of TCMT activities along with a summary of results from the 2010 retrospective analysis will be given in the presentation. Poster Session – Page 18
A highly configurable vortex initialization method for tropical cyclones Eric D. Rappin, David S. Nolan and Sharanya J. Majumdar (erappin@rsmas.miami.edu) University of Miami, RSMAS In order to provide realistic numerical predictions of tropical cyclone (TC) structure and intensity change, an accurate specification of the initial TC structure in a high-resolution model is necessary. The current capabilities of observational data (particularly when aircraft are not present) and data assimilation schemes preclude this from being achievable without considerable theoretical effort and computational expense. For many research and forecasting applications, a convenient but imperfect solution is the initialization of the model with a synthetic vortex. In this study, a customizable approach towards vortex initialization is employed, beginning with a user-specified, relocatable vortex in gradient wind balance that is constructed to be consistent with operationally estimated parameters. The tangential circulation can be extended upwards through a variety of idealized configurations of vertical structure. Next, a three-dimensional wind structure in the hurricane boundary layer is derived using Monin-Obukhov similarity theory, based on the gradient wind profile, variations in boundary layer depth, surface momentum flux and eddy viscosity. Finally, the relative humidity in the tropical cyclone can be configured. In the future, the mid- and upper-tropospheric secondary circulation will be derived from analyses based on satellite-derived atmospheric motion vectors. Simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model will be presented. It is proposed that a well-constructed initial vortex will serve as a convenient benchmark against which new, sophisticated data assimilation schemes can be evaluated. Poster Session – Page 19
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65th Interdepartmental Hurricane Co
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The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
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2010 Atlantic and Eastern North Pac
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A Review of the Joint Typhoon Warni
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NOAA Aircraft Operations Center (AO
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Microwave sounder observations duri
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The 2010 GOES-R Proving Ground at t
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Developments in 2010 in in-flight r
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Surface-Reflected GPS Wind Speed Se
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Real-Time Airborne Ocean Measuremen
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WISDOM Intensity Program - Weather
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A Two-Dimensional Velocity Dealiasi
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Establishing an Improved National C
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Advancements to the Operational HWR
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2011 operational HWRF model upgrade
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An Overview of COAMPS-TC Developmen
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Evaluation and Improvement of Ocean
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Prediction of Consensus TC Track Fo
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Large ensemble tropical cyclone int
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Evaluation and Development of Ensem
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Ensemble-based prediction and diagn
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Technology Transfer in Tropical Cyc
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Hurricane Intensity and Structure R
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Evaluation and Improvements of Clou
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Tropical Cyclone Inner-core Diagnos
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S E S Session 9 ITOP/TCS-10: Couple
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Multi-scale Observations of Cloud C
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Pre-Genesis Monitoring of the 3-D A
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Ocean observations in developing an
Page 72 and 73: Multi-Model Coupled Air-Sea Forecas
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Page 81 and 82: In this study we go further and per
Page 83: Intraseasonal to Seasonal Predictio
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Page 89 and 90: Improvements to Statistical Intensi
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Page 96 and 97: Enhancements to the SHIPS Rapid Int
Page 98 and 99: Advanced Applications of Monte Carl
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Page 102 and 103: Tools for Coordinating Aircraft Dur
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Page 107 and 108: Improved Hurricane-force Surface Wi
Page 109 and 110: Wide Swath Radar Altimeter (WSRA) W
Page 111 and 112: Direct Interpretation of COSMIC Ref
Page 113 and 114: Coupled Air-Sea Observations in Tro
Page 115 and 116: Assimilating COSMIC GPS RO data for
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Page 119 and 120: Improving Ocean Model Performance i
Page 121: HWRF Model Diagnostic Improvements
Page 125 and 126: An Update on the Status of FNMOC Pr
Page 127 and 128: Diagnosing initial condition sensit
Page 129 and 130: Objective Diagnosis of the Eyewall
Page 131 and 132: Quantitative Comparison of Precipit
Page 133 and 134: Vertical Wind Shear Impacts on Hurr
Page 135 and 136: Hurricanes: Science and Society - a
Page 137 and 138: SATellite Intensity CONsensus (SATC
Page 139 and 140: What might a global TC reanalysis p
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65th IHC Booklet/Program (pdf - 4.9MB) - Office of the Federal ...

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