65th IHC Booklet/Program (pdf - 4.9MB) - Office of the Federal ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Is hurricane rapid intensification possible from the energy released inside of a convective burst? Owen A. Kelley 1 , Jeffrey B. Halverson, 2 and John Stout 1 (Owen.Kelley@nasa.gov) 1 NASA Goddard Space Flight; 2 University of Maryland Baltimore County When a hurricane intensifies, the NHC forecast discussion sometimes mentions particularly vigorous convection being observed in the eyewall. When Hurricane Earl (2010) was intensifying to category 4 on its approach toward the U.S., the NHC discussion stated: "THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO CLEAR AND IS SURROUNDED BY CLOUD TOPS TO -70 DEGREES CENSIUS OR COLDER" [5 PM AST 30 Aug 2010]. Forecasters may mention such bursts of eyewall convection because they are common in infrared satellite animations of intensifying hurricanes. Or perhaps forecasters mention convective bursts because some of the intensity forecast schemes that forecasters rely on take into account the vigor of eyewall convection through various empirical parameterizations. It is still a subject of debate, however, what physical mechanisms connect convective bursts with energy flowing into the hurricane's tangential wind field. Even before there is scientific consensus on these physical mechanisms, it would be helpful to estimate what energy conservation and other thermodynamic considerations permit in terms of a convective burst's effect on hurricane intensity. This study provides such a thermodynamic estimate, incorporating recently collected satellite datasets, modeling studies, and analyses of multi-instrument wind observations. First, satellite observations provide estimates of the net amount of condensation occurring inside of a vigorous eyewall cell. Net condensation is proportional to net latent heat release. Making reasonable assumptions, a convective burst (a series of vigorous cells) could release 6e17 J of latent heat into the eyewall every 12 hours, in excess of the amount of latent heat that would have been released in the eyewall in the absence of a convective burst. Convective bursts have been observed to persist for 9 to 48 hours. Second, modeling studies provide estimates of the efficiency with which latent heat released in the eyewall may be transformed into increased kinetic energy of the hurricane's tangential wind. A 5% to 7% efficiency is consistent with recent modeling studies. Third, an examination of wind analyses provides a mapping between changes in kinetic energy and changes in surface wind intensity. An experimental extension of the H*wind analysis to three dimensions suggests a power-law relation between initial and final kinetic energy (KE) and initial and final surface wind intensity (I): KE f / KE i = ( I f / I i ) 1.34 . Putting these three pieces together, this study estimates that intensification at the rate of 11−19 m s -1 (21−37 kt) in 12 hours could result from the extra amount of latent heat that the convective burst releases inside of the eyewall. As a point of reference, rapid intensification is often considered ≥15 m s -1 (30 kt) in 24 hours, and some convective bursts persist for several days. Poster Session – Page 30
Hurricanes: Science and Society – an online resource collaboratively developed by scientists, education and outreach professionals, and educators Isaac Ginis, G. Scowcroft, R. M. Yablonsky, C. W. Knowlton, H. Morin, (iginis@gso.uri.edu) Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island There are many models for engaging scientists in education and outreach activities that can assist them in achieving broader impacts of their research. Successful models provide the participating scientists with an opportunity to contribute their expertise in such a way that there are long lasting effects and/or useful products from their engagement. These kinds of experiences encourage the scientific community to continue participating in education and outreach activities. Hurricanes: Science and Society is an education and outreach program funded by the National Science Foundation that has successfully assisted scientists in broadening the impacts of their work. It has produced a new online educational resource (Hurricanes: Science and Society website) that was launched in October 2010. This multi-disciplinary tool has been developed with the guidance and input from a panel of leading U.S. hurricane researchers and the participation of U.S. formal and informal science educators. This educational resource is expected to become a classroom tool for those both teaching and learning hurricane science. It contains information tailored for specific audiences including middle school through undergraduate educators and students, the general public, and the media. In addition to the website, a 12-page publication for policymakers and other stakeholders has been produced along with an accompanying CD-ROM/DVD to assist formal and informal science educators in maximizing the use of this new resource. Hurricanes: Science and Society can play a substantial role in the effort to educate both students and adults about the science and impacts of hurricanes and the importance of pre-hurricane planning and mitigation. http://www.hurricanescience.org Poster Session – Page 31
Page 1:
65th Interdepartmental Hurricane Co
Page 5 and 6:
The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Page 7 and 8:
2010 Atlantic and Eastern North Pac
Page 9 and 10:
A Review of the Joint Typhoon Warni
Page 11:
NOAA Aircraft Operations Center (AO
Page 15 and 16:
Microwave sounder observations duri
Page 17 and 18:
The 2010 GOES-R Proving Ground at t
Page 19 and 20:
Developments in 2010 in in-flight r
Page 21:
Surface-Reflected GPS Wind Speed Se
Page 25 and 26:
Real-Time Airborne Ocean Measuremen
Page 27 and 28:
WISDOM Intensity Program - Weather
Page 29 and 30:
A Two-Dimensional Velocity Dealiasi
Page 31:
Establishing an Improved National C
Page 35 and 36:
Advancements to the Operational HWR
Page 37 and 38:
2011 operational HWRF model upgrade
Page 39 and 40:
An Overview of COAMPS-TC Developmen
Page 41:
Evaluation and Improvement of Ocean
Page 45 and 46:
Prediction of Consensus TC Track Fo
Page 47 and 48:
Large ensemble tropical cyclone int
Page 49 and 50:
Evaluation and Development of Ensem
Page 51:
Ensemble-based prediction and diagn
Page 55 and 56:
Technology Transfer in Tropical Cyc
Page 57 and 58:
Hurricane Intensity and Structure R
Page 59 and 60:
Evaluation and Improvements of Clou
Page 61 and 62:
Tropical Cyclone Inner-core Diagnos
Page 63:
S E S Session 9 ITOP/TCS-10: Couple
Page 66 and 67:
Multi-scale Observations of Cloud C
Page 68 and 69:
Pre-Genesis Monitoring of the 3-D A
Page 70 and 71:
Ocean observations in developing an
Page 72 and 73:
Multi-Model Coupled Air-Sea Forecas
Page 75 and 76:
Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel
Page 77 and 78:
2011 Plans for NOAA’s Intensity F
Page 79 and 80:
Airborne Surface Water and Ocean To
Page 81 and 82:
In this study we go further and per
Page 83: Intraseasonal to Seasonal Predictio
Page 87 and 88: International Best Track Archive fo
Page 89 and 90: Improvements to Statistical Intensi
Page 91 and 92: Improving SHIPS Rapid Intensificati
Page 93: S E S Session 12 Joint Hurricane Te
Page 96 and 97: Enhancements to the SHIPS Rapid Int
Page 98 and 99: Advanced Applications of Monte Carl
Page 100 and 101: ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consen
Page 102 and 103: Tools for Coordinating Aircraft Dur
Page 105 and 106: Real-time radar processing in the 2
Page 107 and 108: Improved Hurricane-force Surface Wi
Page 109 and 110: Wide Swath Radar Altimeter (WSRA) W
Page 111 and 112: Direct Interpretation of COSMIC Ref
Page 113 and 114: Coupled Air-Sea Observations in Tro
Page 115 and 116: Assimilating COSMIC GPS RO data for
Page 117 and 118: Developing an Atlantic Ocean initia
Page 119 and 120: Improving Ocean Model Performance i
Page 121 and 122: HWRF Model Diagnostic Improvements
Page 123 and 124: A highly configurable vortex initia
Page 125 and 126: An Update on the Status of FNMOC Pr
Page 127 and 128: Diagnosing initial condition sensit
Page 129 and 130: Objective Diagnosis of the Eyewall
Page 131 and 132: Quantitative Comparison of Precipit
Page 133: Vertical Wind Shear Impacts on Hurr
Page 137 and 138: SATellite Intensity CONsensus (SATC
Page 139 and 140: What might a global TC reanalysis p
show all

65th IHC Booklet/Program (pdf - 4.9MB) - Office of the Federal ...

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?