65th IHC Booklet/Program (pdf - 4.9MB) - Office of the Federal ...

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The Experimental HWRF-HEDAS system: Model Evaluation in Preparation for Satellite Microwave Data Assimilation Inside the Hurricane Precipitation Area Svetla Hristova-Veleva 1 , Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan 2 , Tomislava Vukicevic 2 , Ziad Haddad 1 and Thiago Quirino 2 (Svetla.Hristova@jpl.nasa.gov) 1 Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology; 2 NOAA/HRD/AOML Over the last two decades, data assimilation of satellite observations outside precipitation has lead to significant improvement in the ability of global models to represent the large-scale synoptic environment. This has resulted in measured improvement in the hurricane track forecast skills of the global models. However, improving the accuracy of hurricane intensity changes remains a very challenging problem. The main source of error for the large-scale models is their limited ability, due to the use of convective parameterizations, to resolve convective scale events and their interaction with the large-scale environment. Regional models have the resolution, and the physics to properly represent the convective processes. However, even today, there is large uncertainty regarding the assumptions used by the convective-scale parameterizations (e.g. parameterizations of the microphysical processes, the boundary layer processes and the ocean-atmosphere fluxes). Assimilation of satellite observations inside the precipitation presents the next opportunity for hurricane intensity forecast improvements. It offers two benefits: the ability to improve the model forecasts through constantly pushing the model toward the observed precipitation structures; the ability to improve the model physics through parameter estimation as part of the data assimilation. The data to be assimilated could be either the satellite-based retrievals of geophysical parameters, or, the observed radiances themselves. Assimilation of geophysical parameters is often easier since they are more closely related to the state variables. However, instantaneous satellite retrievals carry a lot of uncertainty. Assimilating the observed radiances is the more promising approach at the moment. However, to allow the model to efficiently assimilate the observed data, we need to first assure that the model-produced satellite observables compare well to the observations themselves. To facilitate the model evaluation, we are developing the Tropical Cyclone Information System (TCIS- http://topicalcyclone.jpl.nasa.gov). As part of TCIS, a dedicated portal was developed to facilitate the NASA/NOAA/NSF hurricane field campaigns of 2010 (http://grip.jpl.nasa.gov). We used it to identify a number of cases to allow the evaluation of different hurricane forecasts. In particular, we focused on evaluating the performance of the Experimental version of HWRF (HWRFX) in forecasting the evolution of hurricane Earl. In a previous study we used the model forecast of the thermodynamic and hydrometeor fields to forward simulate satellite observables (microwave brightness temperatures). We compared the overall structure of the observed and the forecasted storms as depicted by the brightness temperatures at 37 and 89 GHz channels. We found that the model was highly capable in depicting the 2D structure of the precipitation field and its evolution. However, the previous study was mostly qualitative. Session 10 – Page 6
In this study we go further and perform a statistical comparison of the observed and simulated brightness temperatures. We evaluate their distributions as a function of the distance from the storm center. We look at the joint multi-frequency distributions of simulated and observed brightness temperatures to evaluate whether the vertical structure of the precipitation is properly reflected in the simulated storms. As part of this study, we also evaluate the impact of microphysical assumptions as manifested in the brightness temperatures of an ensemble WRF (ARW) simulations, each member using different assumptions about the hydrometeor’s particle size distributions. Ongoing plans include developing composites from satellite observations to facilitate the model evaluation. The goal is to point toward a more realistic set of assumptions that would produce simulations with closer-to-the-observed radiometric signatures. Assuring a close comparison between observed and modeled radiances in precipitation is the first, and very important, step toward an effective assimilation of satellite observations in the HWRFX system. For this purpose the Hurricane EnKF Data Assimilation System (HEDAS) that is currently developed at NOAA's hurricane research division is proposed to be used. Session 10 – Page 7
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65th Interdepartmental Hurricane Co
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The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
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2010 Atlantic and Eastern North Pac
Page 9 and 10:
A Review of the Joint Typhoon Warni
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NOAA Aircraft Operations Center (AO
Page 15 and 16:
Microwave sounder observations duri
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The 2010 GOES-R Proving Ground at t
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Developments in 2010 in in-flight r
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Surface-Reflected GPS Wind Speed Se
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Real-Time Airborne Ocean Measuremen
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WISDOM Intensity Program - Weather
Page 29 and 30: A Two-Dimensional Velocity Dealiasi
Page 31: Establishing an Improved National C
Page 35 and 36: Advancements to the Operational HWR
Page 37 and 38: 2011 operational HWRF model upgrade
Page 39 and 40: An Overview of COAMPS-TC Developmen
Page 41: Evaluation and Improvement of Ocean
Page 45 and 46: Prediction of Consensus TC Track Fo
Page 47 and 48: Large ensemble tropical cyclone int
Page 49 and 50: Evaluation and Development of Ensem
Page 51: Ensemble-based prediction and diagn
Page 55 and 56: Technology Transfer in Tropical Cyc
Page 57 and 58: Hurricane Intensity and Structure R
Page 59 and 60: Evaluation and Improvements of Clou
Page 61 and 62: Tropical Cyclone Inner-core Diagnos
Page 63: S E S Session 9 ITOP/TCS-10: Couple
Page 66 and 67: Multi-scale Observations of Cloud C
Page 68 and 69: Pre-Genesis Monitoring of the 3-D A
Page 70 and 71: Ocean observations in developing an
Page 72 and 73: Multi-Model Coupled Air-Sea Forecas
Page 75 and 76: Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel
Page 77 and 78: 2011 Plans for NOAA’s Intensity F
Page 79: Airborne Surface Water and Ocean To
Page 83: Intraseasonal to Seasonal Predictio
Page 87 and 88: International Best Track Archive fo
Page 89 and 90: Improvements to Statistical Intensi
Page 91 and 92: Improving SHIPS Rapid Intensificati
Page 93: S E S Session 12 Joint Hurricane Te
Page 96 and 97: Enhancements to the SHIPS Rapid Int
Page 98 and 99: Advanced Applications of Monte Carl
Page 100 and 101: ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consen
Page 102 and 103: Tools for Coordinating Aircraft Dur
Page 105 and 106: Real-time radar processing in the 2
Page 107 and 108: Improved Hurricane-force Surface Wi
Page 109 and 110: Wide Swath Radar Altimeter (WSRA) W
Page 111 and 112: Direct Interpretation of COSMIC Ref
Page 113 and 114: Coupled Air-Sea Observations in Tro
Page 115 and 116: Assimilating COSMIC GPS RO data for
Page 117 and 118: Developing an Atlantic Ocean initia
Page 119 and 120: Improving Ocean Model Performance i
Page 121 and 122: HWRF Model Diagnostic Improvements
Page 123 and 124: A highly configurable vortex initia
Page 125 and 126: An Update on the Status of FNMOC Pr
Page 127 and 128: Diagnosing initial condition sensit
Page 129 and 130: Objective Diagnosis of the Eyewall
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Quantitative Comparison of Precipit
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Vertical Wind Shear Impacts on Hurr
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Hurricanes: Science and Society - a
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SATellite Intensity CONsensus (SATC
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What might a global TC reanalysis p
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65th IHC Booklet/Program (pdf - 4.9MB) - Office of the Federal ...

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